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  1. #1
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    Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Since it's really easy to toss out numbers I decided to actually look at our matchups and see how we might do in Des Moines. So I opened up the brackets and looked at how we would end up if every match were to go along with the Takedown Wrestling Media Dual Impact Index, which is kind of like a BCS computer for wrestling. For the purposes of this exercise I assumed no upsets at all. Though in reality any match where the index value has only a few points of difference should be considered a toss up. Mayfield vs Hudson, Moreno vs. Veltre, Weatherman vs. Brown, and Gadson vs. Wilps/Meeks are all examples of this. Also, the index really likes Weatherman a lot, and he is rated much higher in the index than he by any of the ranking services. So his results might be inflated.

    Overall I'd say this came up with results slightly higher than I expected. When I just look at the rankings I peg Moreno and Weatherman as going 1-2 (losing to Veltre and Brown rather than beating them). And Gadson losing to Wilps, which would likely push him into 6th place. Also, upsets elsewhere in the bracket could throw a wrench into things.


    Brackets are here
    Takedown Wrestling Media Dual Impact Index is here


    Luke Goettl (108.4) vs. Nick Dardanes (125.3) 0-1
    Luke Goettl (108.4) vs. McCade Ford (94.7) 1-1
    Luke Goettl (108.4) vs. Charles Cobb (123.1) 1-2

    Total: 1-2, 1 team pt (.5 for winning after a bye, .5x1 for advancement)

    Max Mayfield (93.6) vs. Eric Grajales (130.2) 0-1
    Max Mayfield (93.6) vs. Alex Hudson (94.7) 0-2

    Total: 0-2, 0 team pts

    Mike Moreno (120.9) vs Nick Moore (127.0) 0-1
    Mike Moreno (120.9) vs Caleb March (106.8) 1-1
    Mike Moreno (120.9) vs Josh Veltre (117.6) 2-1
    Mike Moreno (120.9) vs Peyton Walsh (112.9) 3-1
    Mike Moreno (120.9) vs Bubba Graham (138.1) 3-2
    Total: 3-2, 2 team pts (.5 for winning after a bye, .5x3 for advancement)

    Tanner Weatherman (127.3) vs. Daniel Yates (128.2) 0-1
    Tanner Weatherman (127.3) vs. Austin Gabel (114.9) 1-1
    Tanner Weatherman (127.3) vs. Nathaniel Brown (126.2) 2-1
    Tanner Weatherman (127.3) vs. Jon Fausey (121.2) 3-1
    Tanner Weatherman (127.3) vs. Logan Storley (148.6) 3-2

    Total: 3-2, 2 team pts (.5 for winning after a bye, .5x3 for advancement)

    Boaz Beard (120.9) vs. Stephen Doty (106.7) 1-0
    Boaz Beard (120.9) vs. Ethan Lofthouse (127.8) 1-1
    Boaz Beard (120.9) vs. Nick Vetterlein (108.3) 2-1
    Boaz Beard (120.9) vs Mike Larson (127.5) 2-2

    Total: 2-2, 2 team pt (1 for pigtail win, .5 for winning after a bye, .5x1 for advancement)

    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Mario Gonzolez (125.4) 1-0
    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Blake Rosholt (118.0) 2-0
    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Mathew Wilps (137.0) 3-0
    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Quentin Wright (149.8) 3-1
    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Taylor Meeks (133.6) 4-1
    Kyven Gadson (138.9) vs. Alfonso Hernandez (139.1) 4-2

    Total: 4-2, 13.5 team pts (1 for winning after a bye, 1x3 and 0.5x1 for advancement, 9 for 4th place)

    Matt Gibson (118.4) vs. Adam Fager (106.7) 1-0
    Matt Gibson (118.4) vs. Blake Herrin (111.9) 2-0
    Matt Gibson (118.4) vs. Dom Bradley (144.8) 2-1
    Matt Gibson (118.4) vs. Evan Knutson (108.1) 3-1
    Matt Gibson (118.4) vs. Mike McClure (137.4) 3-2

    Total: 3-2, 2.5 team pt (1 for pigtail win, 1x1 and 0.5x1 for advancement)

    Total: 1+0+2+2+2+13.5+2.5 = 23pts

    Most years that total would put us somewhere in the mid twenties teamwise.


    Last edited by Judoka; 03-17-2013 at 03:55 PM.

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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Hoping for a 15 ~ 18 place finish, would be overly satisfied. We are pushing a top 25 finish, not great, but improvements are made.



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    I made a bet on us finishing top 20. Certainly hope they help me win a few bucks.



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Judoka, thanks again for the great stat work. I tried to rep, but have to spread it around.



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by heyguy85 View Post
    I made a bet on us finishing top 20. Certainly hope they help me win a few bucks.
    The likeliest way for that to happen would be for Moreno to AA. To do that he would need to get wins over Moore and Polz on Thursday. That would allow him to avoid another rematch with Bubba Graham (who has his number this year) until after the R12 round.



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Key matches for everybody are:

    Goettl: None, he's pretty set at 1-2. Would need at huge upset to finish anywhere else.

    Mayfield: Hudson on Thursday evening. Hudson is 14-6 but has faced a very easy schedule. He and Mayfield are the two weakest guys in the 149 bracket so Mayfield is lucky he'll get a shot against him. Mayfield has stuck through with ISU through thick and thin so it would be nice to see him get a win at NCAAs.

    Moreno: His first match against Moore. Moore beat him 2-3 at the dual meet but Mike is capable of a win here. His shot at being an AA goes through that Moore match. A loss there probably means R12 would be the ceiling.

    Weatherman: His first match against Yates of Michigan might actually put him in a worse situation if he wins. So I'll go with his likely 3rd match against Brown of Lehigh. Tanner is favored by the index but every poll has Brown ranked higher. A win there is hardly assured and Weatherman will have to be at the top of his game to get his hand raised.

    Beard: His 2nd match against Lofthouse. A win there follwed by a loss to Steinhous would set him up nicely for an R12 run.

    Gadson: I'm going to say two matches for Gadson, the first being his opening match against Gonzolez, whom he beat 9-5 at Midlands. Gonzolez is no slouch, he is ranked 13th or 14th by most polls. If Gadson's head is in another place he could easily get dropped down to the conso bracket. Assuming that isn't the case then his 3rd match against Wilps of Pitt will be key. Wilps is a returning AA and is ranked above Kyven by all the humon polls. A win there would be huge to propel him into the semifnials against Wright and make sure ISU has a more respectable team finish.

    Gibson: His second match on Thursday morning against Herrin of American. The rest of his matches have a clear favorite but Herrin has a pretty comparable resume to Gibson. A loss here would probably mean getting Delaney from the Citadel on Friday morning, who would probably end Gibson's tournament at 2-2.


    Last edited by Judoka; 03-18-2013 at 02:37 PM.

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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Hey Judoka, I know others have said it, but I appreciate your input. I love football and basketball, but wrestling is really my sport. Getting information on wrestling is somewhat more difficult so this info is awesome! I'm hoping to see great things next week in Des Moines!



  8. #8
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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    So if Moreno is going to AA it is going to be a pretty tough path. He could do it with the path I posted above by upsetting Graham in the R12 match. Here's the other option. The # is the seed and the rankings are Dual Impact Index/Intermat/Amateur Wrestling News.

    Mike Moreno, Iowa State (120.9)/13/16 vs:

    • First match will be #10 Nick Moore, Iowa (127.0)/11/15. Moore beat Moreno 2-3 in the December. This would have to be a win.
    • Second match would be #7 Conrad Polz, Illinois (131.1)/8/8. Moreno split two matches with Polz this season. Both were close. This also would have to be a win.
    • Quarterfinals match would be David Taylor, Penn State (153.8)/2/2. They have not met this season. This would be a monumental upset, so even if he is wrestling great he probably gets pushed down to consolations here.
    • R12 match would (likely) be #12 Taylor Massa, Michigan (132.6)/12/12. They have not met this season. He'd obviously have to win again here. This is the win that would secure him AA.
    • Fifth match he would get likely get Bubba Graham, Oklahoma (138.1)/5/5. Three of Moreno's seven losses this season are to Graham. So I'd guess he'd pick up his second loss here.
    • Then in the 7th place match he'd probably get Nicholas Sulzer, Virginia (128.3)/7/7.


    So getting to the seventh place match will be considerably harder than winning the 7th place match.


    If he beats Moore but loses to Polz? That path probably still ends in R12 with a loss to Steven Monk of NDSU, who pinned him at the start of the season.


    Last edited by Judoka; 03-18-2013 at 02:09 PM.

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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Looking through Weatherman's record I don't see why the Takedown Media Impact Index loves him so much. He has pretty consistently beaten people just outside the top 20, but his best win is in OT over Greg Zannetti of Rutgers, who is ranked 18-20 in just about every poll and in the index. But he also has two losses to guys ranked in the mid teens, Bryce Hammond of CSU-Bakersfield and John-Martin Cannon of Buffalo.



  10. #10
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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    If, rather than looking at the index I instead look at polls and past results, the point total drops a fair bit.

    Goettl: Still 1-2 and 1 team pt. Might add .5 to that with a major in first round consolations.
    Mayfield: Still 0-2 and 0 team pts. Though I'd really like to see him beat Hudson and get us 1 team pt.
    Moreno: 1-2 for 1 team pt. He got the toughest draw on the team compared to his ability.
    Weatherman: 1-2 for 1 team pt. I think he's correctly ranked at around 18-20.
    Beard: 2-2 for 1.5 team points.
    Gadson: 4-3 for 6th place and 10 team pts.
    Gibson: 3-2 for 2.5 team pts. He got the best draw on the team compared to his ability.


    Team pt total: 1+0+1+1+1.5+10+2.5 = 17



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    If we could get top 20, that's a great step.

    Can someone tell me how many guys we'll have returning next year?


    @RandomGeoFacts

  12. #12
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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by mj4cy View Post
    If we could get top 20, that's a great step.

    Can someone tell me how many guys we'll have returning next year?
    We only graduate Mayfield and Gibson. Gabe Moreno will step in to replace Mayfield and should be at or above where Mayfield was at this year. Heavyweight is a huge question mark and I'm really hoping we find a mat ready JuCo or 1 year grad student that can fill that hole.

    Gadson should enter next season ranked in the top 3. There are three non-seniors in the top 10 right now, ranked 5-6-7.
    Moreno should enter next season ranked in the top 10. He is 8th right now among non-seniors at 165.
    Beard might enter as top 10 (depends on this weekend). He is also 8th right now among non-seniors at 184.

    Finch, Goettl, and Weatherman should all be top 20 or just outside of it to start the season.


    Last edited by Judoka; 03-19-2013 at 08:53 AM.

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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    So what would everyone consider to be a "good" tournament this weekend? Please not just a placement number, because that doesn't add anything to the conversation. But actual result based on the brackets and who is in them. Here's what I would consider to be a "good" tournament based on the draw. This would require everyone to win the matches they are supposed to and scoring a few upsets.

    • AA from Gadson. Though given his past two weeks I'm not sure how he is going to do.
    • R12 from at least one of Moreno, Weatherman, or Beard. They all would need one big upset to make it that far (Moreno over Veltre, Weatherman over Brown, or Beard over Larson) so I'd like to see that from at least one of them.
    • Mayfield over Hudson.
    • Gibson over Herrin


    Last edited by Judoka; 03-19-2013 at 09:31 AM.

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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    So what would everyone consider to be a "good" tournament this weekend? Please not just a placement number, because that doesn't add anything to the conversation. But actual result based on the brackets and who is in them. Here's what I would consider to be a "good" tournament based on the draw. This would require everyone to win the matches they are supposed to and scoring a few upsets.

    • AA from Gadson. Though given his past two weeks I'm not sure how he is going to do.
    • R12 from at least one of Moreno, Weatherman, or Beard. They all would need one big upset to make it that far (Moreno over Veltre, Weatherman over Brown, or Beard over Larson) so I'd like to see that from at least one of them.
    • Mayfield over Hudson.
    • Gibson over Herrin
    That sounds pretty good to me, although I would like to see Gadsen finish top 8 and sprinkle in a win or two for others you didn't mention. Gadson placing, another AA and at least 1-2 wins from everyone else would be a good tournament.



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    Re: Nationals Team Finish Expectations

    Wrestle hard for 7 minutes and win the matches we should win. I also think we will get an upset or 2 somewhere.

    And next year build from here



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