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    Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    I hear Iowa arguing that they should get the nod into the tournament, in part because they have played a tougher conference schedule than many other teams in other conferences that are also on the bubble. The Big 10 has some great teams, but so does the Big 12.

    To answer the question, I looked at the RPI. I know this is hardly the be all and end all, but it does serve to provide some statistics to work with. On this basis, the teams Iowa played had an average RPI of .5712, while Iowa State's opposition averaged .5552. Advantage Iowa State (meaning an easier schedule).

    I then looked at the rankings. The average ranking of Iowa's league opposition was 77 while Iowa State's was 96. Again, advantage Iowa State. But then I looked at categories within the RPI and saw a slightly different story. Iowa played 3 games against top 10 teams (Indiana (2) and Michigan State) while Iowa State played two games against a top ten team: both Kansas. Again, slight advantage Iowa State. Iowa played 5 games against top 25 teams, while Iowa State played 6. Advantage Iowa. Iowa played 10 games against top 50 teams compared to Iowa State's 8. Advantage Iowa State. Both Iowa and Iowa State played 10 games against top 100 teams, so it is a wash. Iowa played no teams below 200, while Iowa State played 4 such games. Advantage Iowa State. Interestingly, Iowa was 3-6 for the first half of their schedule and then reversed that to 6-3 for the second half, but their schedule was decidedly easier.

    Then I looked at W-L records. Iowa ended up 9 and 9 in league play. They lost to teams with an average RPI of .6042 and beat teams with an average RPI of .5382. Iowa won only 3 games to teams with an RPI above their conference game average RPI (.5712). Iowa State ended up 11-7. They lost to teams with an RPI averaging .5872 and beat teams with an RPI average of .5357, almost exactly the same as Iowa. Iowa State beat 5 teams with average RPIs above the their conference game average (.5552).

    So, on the basis of RPI - admittedly not the only criteria one might want to use - Iowa had a tougher schedule. Do they have an argument that they should be going to the tournament?



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    We played Kansas three times.

    If Iowa had beat Nebby in Lincoln, they would be in.

    12 losses is about all you can handle before not getting in the dance. We just made it.


    Last edited by Wesley; 03-17-2013 at 01:44 AM.
    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Lots of teams can make an argument. Everyone seems to think the B10 is the toughest bball conference this year and it sure looks like Iowa out-performed but there are lots of teams at that level that have similar arguments.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Iowa State. Iowa probably wouldn't even be in discussion if they played a tougher non conference. They'd be looking at 18 or 19 wins probably. In Big 10 play they only had to play Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State (at home) once. Twice if you include the tournament. They only played Illinois once and it was at home. They got Nebraska, Purdue, Penn State and Northwestern twice. (3 times counting B10 tournament). They got us at home. The best teams they played in the non conference were either at home or at a neutral site. (Wichita State, UNI.)



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    We played Kansas three times.
    I just considered conference play, and did not include tournament play in either instance.

    I agree the late in season loss to Nebraska probably hurt them a lot. Our last "bad" loss was in mid-season against Texas.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    You can't just look at conference play though. Non Conference counts too. And that is one of the biggest reasons Iowa is not on the bubble. They had an extremely soft non conference schedule, and that hurt their RPI.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by Jordanj6502 View Post
    You can't just look at conference play though. Non Conference counts too. And that is one of the biggest reasons Iowa is not on the bubble. They had an extremely soft non conference schedule, and that hurt their RPI.
    Exactly, their non-conference schedule was ridiculously easy (Texas Tech football non-conference schedule easy). That is why they have an rpi 0f 78 and we are at 45. Plus they don't have the quality wins we do (KSU and OSU), their best win was over Wisconsin who was unranked and really not playing well at the time (they didn't beat 1 ranked team this year). There is a reason they are NIT bound.


    Last edited by cyclone87; 03-17-2013 at 02:57 AM.

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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    NCAA College Basketball RPI Rankings - ESPN

    according to this Iowa's SOS is 129. They really have no basis for a tough SOS. It is by for the worst in the Big Ten even. They do have a win over Wisconsin and an OT loss @ Wisconsin, but that is about it. Losing to Purdue, VT, and Nebraska doesn't help them. I don't see them getting in.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Iowa State played 17 top 100 teams, Iowa played 14. Everything above 100 is a "should win" even though it doesn't always happen.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by psyclone51 View Post
    I hear Iowa arguing that they should get the nod into the tournament, in part because they have played a tougher conference schedule than many other teams in other conferences that are also on the bubble. The Big 10 has some great teams, but so does the Big 12.

    To answer the question, I looked at the RPI. I know this is hardly the be all and end all, but it does serve to provide some statistics to work with. On this basis, the teams Iowa played had an average RPI of .5712, while Iowa State's opposition averaged .5552. Advantage Iowa State (meaning an easier schedule).

    I then looked at the rankings. The average ranking of Iowa's league opposition was 77 while Iowa State's was 96. Again, advantage Iowa State. But then I looked at categories within the RPI and saw a slightly different story. Iowa played 3 games against top 10 teams (Indiana (2) and Michigan State) while Iowa State played two games against a top ten team: both Kansas. Again, slight advantage Iowa State. Iowa played 5 games against top 25 teams, while Iowa State played 6. Advantage Iowa. Iowa played 10 games against top 50 teams compared to Iowa State's 8. Advantage Iowa State. Both Iowa and Iowa State played 10 games against top 100 teams, so it is a wash. Iowa played no teams below 200, while Iowa State played 4 such games. Advantage Iowa State. Interestingly, Iowa was 3-6 for the first half of their schedule and then reversed that to 6-3 for the second half, but their schedule was decidedly easier.

    Then I looked at W-L records. Iowa ended up 9 and 9 in league play. They lost to teams with an average RPI of .6042 and beat teams with an average RPI of .5382. Iowa won only 3 games to teams with an RPI above their conference game average RPI (.5712). Iowa State ended up 11-7. They lost to teams with an RPI averaging .5872 and beat teams with an RPI average of .5357, almost exactly the same as Iowa. Iowa State beat 5 teams with average RPIs above the their conference game average (.5552).

    So, on the basis of RPI - admittedly not the only criteria one might want to use - Iowa had a tougher schedule. Do they have an argument that they should be going to the tournament?
    Good research. Based on everything you have dug up, it is fully apparent that we should give up our spot in the NCAA tourney to the Hawks. Let's go to the NIT instead. Thanks for finding this information.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Even our conference RPI is stronger than theirs along with our non-conference RPI sos being way better.


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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    There's no question Iowa has an argument, and frankly coming down the stretch I thought the bracketologists dismissed them a little too easily. But at the end of the day, while Iowa had a slightly tougher schedule - let's be honest, in a league as tough as the Big 10 this year, it could have been FAR tougher - they didn't do anything with it. They have some bad losses and almost no big wins to hang their hats on or overcome those bad losses.

    I think Iowa and ISU are in some ways interchangeable. If the ISU/Iowa game was in Ames, we win by a similar margin. If we swap leagues, they probably go around 11-7 in the Big 12 and we probably go around 9-9 against their Big 10 schedule.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by Trice View Post
    If we swap leagues, they probably go around 11-7 in the Big 12 and we probably go around 9-9 against their Big 10 schedule.
    Ummm, no. Wrong. They played an incredibly easy, unbalanced schedule and only went .500. If they played the round-robin Big 12 schedule, they would not be over .500.

    Conversely, we went over .500 on a balanced schedule. If we had their ridiculous schedule, we would have been 4 or 5 games over .500 in the Big 10 easily.



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by Trice View Post
    I think Iowa and ISU are in some ways interchangeable. If the ISU/Iowa game was in Ames, we win by a similar margin. If we swap leagues, they probably go around 11-7 in the Big 12 and we probably go around 9-9 against their Big 10 schedule.
    Started drinking early for St. Patrick's Day too, huh?



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    Re: Tougher schedule: Iowa or Iowa State

    Quote Originally Posted by ojoe2317 View Post
    Ummm, no. Wrong. They played an incredibly easy, unbalanced schedule and only went .500. If they played the round-robin Big 12 schedule, they would not be over .500.

    Conversely, we went over .500 on a balanced schedule. If we had their ridiculous schedule, we would have been 4 or 5 games over .500 in the Big 10 easily.
    incredibly easy? you don't know much about basketball.



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