Results 1 to 5 of 5
  1. #1
    Legend
    Points: 174,241, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    alaskaguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    10,204
    Points
    174,241
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 6
    Given: 1

    Odds Favour A Recession

    According to Lawerence Summers the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis. More economic projections from Mr. Summers include:

    Forward-looking indicators suggest that the housing sector may be in free-fall. There are forecasts implied by at least one property derivatives market indicating that nationwide house prices could fall from their previous peaks by as much as 25 per cent over the next several years.

    It is now clear that only a small part of the financial distress that must be worked through has yet been faced

    The capacity of the financial system to provide credit in support of new investment on the scale necessary to maintain economic expansion is in increasing doubt.

    If you want to read one depressing forecast click on the link:
    FT.com / Columnists / Lawrence Summers - Wake up to the dangers of a deepening crisis



  2. #2
    Speechless
    Points: 447,545, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 20.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassVeteran50000 Experience PointsOverdrive
    brianhos's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Trenchtown
    Posts
    39,325
    Points
    447,545
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 46
    Given: 9

    Re: Odds Favour A Recession

    Anyone who could not see this housing mess was not paying attention. What did people think would happen when interest rates went back to normal rates? Could they not see all the people speculating on houses? I attempted to buy 2 houses during the bubble, both deals fell through because the owners were not willing to budge on the inflated asking price. I did not budge either, and now I am glad I didn't. I will just make them an even lower offer in the next few years.


    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin 1775

  3. #3
    Legend
    Points: 174,241, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    alaskaguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    10,204
    Points
    174,241
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 6
    Given: 1

    Re: Odds Favour A Recession

    Quote Originally Posted by brianhos View Post
    Anyone who could not see this housing mess was not paying attention. What did people think would happen when interest rates went back to normal rates? Could they not see all the people speculating on houses? I attempted to buy 2 houses during the bubble, both deals fell through because the owners were not willing to budge on the inflated asking price. I did not budge either, and now I am glad I didn't. I will just make them an even lower offer in the next few years.
    Speculative bubbles are typically easy to sort out in hind sight. In the case of housing there were a number of economic arguments that supported ever higher housing appreciation.

    Although low interest rates certainly fueled the fire, other factors (relaxation of credit standards, innovative repayment terms, and reduced down payment minimums) deserve equal if not greater blame.



  4. #4
    Speechless
    Points: 380,872, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 79.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    55,557
    Points
    380,872
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 144
    Given: 114

    Re: Odds Favour A Recession

    How is kirk Ferrentz going to sell his home for a profit? Sell it to McCarney?


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
    Let my Fred's Four Horsemen ride: Georges, Hogue, Nader, and McKay.

  5. #5
    All-Star Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    1,384
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Odds Favour A Recession

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    Speculative bubbles are typically easy to sort out in hind sight. In the case of housing there were a number of economic arguments that supported ever higher housing appreciation.
    I don't know about that. The dotcom bubble was incredibly visible, to all that were not terminally stupid. The later insane stock valuations were also easy to see, for up to a year before they went down.

    Of course, I was busy being excoriated by betters, who jeered at my conservatism at the time....

    I think the correct term to describe how I felt when it collapsed was "nanny, nanny, boo-boo!" But that is a technical term, best left to the professionals. As an amateur, I feel unqualified to use it.


    A ship in port is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.


    A Man Is What He Does When It Counts

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 06:00 PM