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  1. #1
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    NCAA Qualifying Situations

    This was being discussed in the Gameday thread from the weekend but I felt like it was better to start a new thread rather than keep that one going.

    It's getting near the end of the season so NCAA qualification is staring the team in the face. A few years ago the NCAA changed from their old allocation system. Rather than conferences being given allocations based on prior year performances, conference tournaments are given qualifying spots based on how the wrestlers have done in the current season. 33 wrestlers qualify at each weight. 29 spots are "pre-qualified" and competed for at the conference tournaments, while 4 spots are held back for at-large qualifications.

    To be a prequalifier a wrestler must have two of these three things:

    • Top RPI ranking (Around top 27, it can go up or down to get to their 29 prequalifiers)
    • Top Coaches Poll ranking (Around top 27, it can go up or down to get to their 29 prequalifiers)
    • .700 win percentage against D-1 Competition(This also can be adjusted up or down to get to 29 prequalifiers)


    To be included in RPI ranking a wrestler must have at least 17 matches against other D-1 wrestlers.

    Once the conference championships have finished, any wrestler that has one of the following can be considered for an at-large bid
    • .700 Win %
    • Top 33 RPI (updated after conference championships)
    • Top 33 Coaches Poll Ranking (not updated after conference championships)
    • .700 winning percentage against all competition
    • At least one win against a wrestler who was a pre-qualifier
    • Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification


    Generally, wrestlers who had earned pre-qualifier status but were upset at their conference championships tend to get first consideration for the at-large spots.

    Because of this system, the other wrestlers at each weight class in the conference is very important for our guys and their chances of making it to Des Moines. For example - at 125 Finch will likely have to beat Young from WVU, who is unranked, to earn a trip to Des Moines. But at 133 Meeks will be staring down the task of beating #9 Brewer from Oklahoma if he is going to earn a trip. Luckily for us we have more guys in Finch's boat than we do in Meeks'.

    Right now we have two guys (Beard & Gibson) who would likely be pre-qualifiers if they had a few more matches to hit the 17 match minimum for RPI inclusion. So it sounds like at least a few members of the team will be crashing the "National Collegiate Open" this weekend. The NCO is generally a tournament for guys who are redshirting or backups. So it is closer to the UNI Open than Midlands. But it is pretty much the only option for a tournament between now and the final RPI release. I'm not sure who all will be going but I would expect Gibson at the very least.

    If I had to say right now I'd say we'll have between 5-7 qualifiers. Moreno, Weatherman, and Gadson almost for sure. Beard and Gibson likely. And then I am hoping 1-2 of Finch/Goettl/Mayfield/Molina can steal a spot.


    125:
    Finch won't pre-qualify but if Shane Young from WVU gets a spot (he is borderline currently) Finch is very capable of stealing it. He beat Young 1-0 in our dual with WVU. If Young doesn't get a spot its unlikely Finch will qualify. He'd have to beat Klimara from OSU, who majored him recently.

    133:
    Doesn't look good for Meeks. He won't pre-qualify so in order to make it to Des Moines he would have to beat Brewer from Oklahoma or Morrison from OSU. They are both top ten ranked guys.

    141:
    Goettl is in a similar position to Finch. Feikert from Oklahoma State is a fringe pre-qualifier. If Feikert gets a spot Goettl can steal it. He beat Feikert 5-4 in our dual against OSU. If Feikert doesn't get a spot Goettl would have to get a big upset. If Goettl goes to the NCO and gets some quality wins he could sneak himself into being a pre-qualifier. But I wouldn't count on that, as it isn't likely there would be multiple ranked guys at a late season open tournament.

    149:
    Mayfield won't pre-qualify. He will need to beat #16 Nick Lester from Oklahoma to steal his spot. It's possible as Max has been wrestling well recently and will have a lot more to wrestle for than Lester. Lester beat him 4-6 at the dual.

    157:
    Same position as Mayfield, he'll need to steal a spot from the larger Lester brother, who beat him 4-6 at the dual. He is just on the outside looking in for a pre-qualifying spot. So if there are a handful of upsets over guys in the 20-30 ranking range it is possible he could slide into one of the last pre-qualifying spots. Not likely though.

    165:
    Moreno will be a pre-qualifier and would likely get an at large spot even if he gets upset at Big XIIs.

    174:
    Weatherman will be a pre-qualifier and would likely get an at large spot even if he gets upset at Big XIIs.

    184:
    Beard would be a shoo in pre-qualifier if he had three more matches against D-1 competition. So hopefully he is one of the guys who will be going to the NCO.. If that doesn't happen he'll have to beat Chionuma from OSU for a spot. Chionuma is higher ranked but Beard has beaten him once already this season. Beard would also likely get an at large spot unless he totally collapsed at Big XIIs due to having multiple wins over guys who will be pre-qualifiers.

    197:
    Kyven will be a pre-qualifier and would certainly get an at-large spot as long as he steps on the mat at all at Big XIIs.

    HWT:
    Gibson is one match shy of having the magic 17 matches against D-1 competition. If he goesthe NCO and notches a few wins he will probably pre-qualify. If that doesn't happen he'd have to beat #3 Gelogaev from OSU. I think that it is very important that he finds a tournament to go to and does well this coming weekend, as he would not be a shoo in for an at large spot if he doesn't pre-qualify and/or beat Gelogaev.



  2. #2
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    This weekend WVU has two duals, as an ISU fan you want to be cheering for Young to win both his matches at 125 so he stays above .700 and moves up slightly in the Coaches Ranking. He was 30th in the last one so moving up just a few places would go along way towards making sure he is a pre-qualifier.

    Feikert went 1-1 at the National Duals this last weekend at 141 for Oklahoma State. You'll want to be cheering for him to do well this coming weekend in the finals of the Duals as he was 32nd in the last coaches poll so we need him to move up to the mid twenties.

    Those two guys being pre-qualifiers greatly improves the chances of Finch, Goettl, or both going to Des Moines.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-18-2013 at 06:56 PM.

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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Thanks for all of your input this season Judoka! You should really take up CW on the wrestling blog/writing offer.



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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Noticed something tonight when I went to look how WVU's weekend is going

    The challenge will be compounded for the Mountaineers, as they will be without junior Nathan Pennesi (141). The Latrobe, Pa., native is ranked as high as No. 12 in country and sports a 21-7 record.

    “Nathan suffered a broken left third metacarpal last week during practice,” Turnbull said. “It is a shame that Nathan will miss these final two dual meets. We got lucky that he did not need to have surgery. They were able to cast it, and he has been able to work out. We have been working to maintain his conditioning as we work towards nationals.”
    Pennesi beat Goettl 1-5 in the dual and will likely be facing off against Goettl in the 2-3 seed match at Big XIIs. Pennesi is a lock pre-qualifier for NCAAs and having to take a significant amount of time off of live wrestling at this point in the season probably will hurt his performance at Big XIIs. Depending on how quickly he heals up this could be very good news for Luke.



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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Judoka, thanks for all you do for the wrestling coverage. Very informational. I see 5, maybe 6 qualifiers. Not 7 but time will tell.



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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Another thing to note - the National Collegiate Open tomorrow is looking like a much tougher tournament than I expected it to be based on past years. Finch, Meeks, Goettl, and Mayfield could all put themselves into pre-qualifier status if they win it tomorrow. And Beard/Gibson won't fall in the rankings if they don't.



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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Updating based on today's tournament:

    Finch - Probably didn't push himself into the rankings today, but the margin between the wrestlers in the Big XII at 12 is pretty thin. So today's performance might help out a lot in reminding him that he can win.

    Meeks - Short of beating Mango there wasn't much he could have done today to get into the qualifying picture. He's still in a bad spot because the Big XIIs will have two spots at 133 and two top ten guys looking to take them.

    Goettl - The coaches had him forfeit out after his first win (and 17th D-1 match). Obviously they feel that win was all he needed to be a pre-qualifier. Hopefully they are right.

    Mayfield - He is still going to have to beat Lester to steal a spot

    England - Not totally sure why he was there today instead of Gibson. Assuming he is healthy he could fill in for us at 174 or 184 at Big XIIs if need be.

    Beard - Got the matches he needed and his loss today wasn't a loss that'll drop him more than a few spots in the rankings. Unless his RPI is crap he'll be a pre-qualifier.

    I'm really not sure why Gibson didn't make the trip today. He was in a similar position to Goettl where he could have had one match and then forfeited out. It makes no sense not to bring him unless he got hurt in practice this week. He had way more to gain by wrestling today than England did.

    So now we're looking at 5 likely pre-qualifiers (Goettl, Moreno, Weatherman, Beard, Gadson).



  8. #8
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    I believe Gibson had a death in the family and couldn't attend last weekends NCO



  9. #9
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    That would explain the late withdrawal and addition of England.

    It's really too bad that their is no way for him to get that 17th match for RPI. He's faced a pretty good schedule so his RPI would almost surely be high enough (along with his coaches poll ranking) for him to qualify.

    If only his medical forfeit at Midlands to the guy from Maryland could be considered an injury default instead. Forfiets don't count as a loss on one's record, but injury defaults do.



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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Right now, we don't have any 4th seeds. I think if we go into the tourney with no 4th seeds, we are setup as well as possible.

    Avoid Morrison at 133, I think Brewer is a more winnable match
    Avoid Maple at 141
    Avoid Oliver at 149
    Avoid Perry at 174
    Avoid Z at hwt

    If there is no wrestle backs, we need the best 1st round matchups possible.



  11. #11
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Allocations come out today. The big question marks for us will be how many bids the conference will get at 125 and 141.



  12. #12
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    NCAA announces qualifier allocations, final coaches' panel and RPI rankings - NCAA.com

    125 -1
    133 - 2
    141 - 2
    149 - 2
    157 - 2
    165 - 3
    174 - 2
    184 - 2
    197 - 2
    HWT - 1

    Goettl apparently didn't make it. His ranking went up high enough, but no top RPI.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-28-2013 at 01:26 PM.

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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Code:
    +-------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
    |    CONFERENCE     | 125  | 133  | 141  | 149  | 157  | 165  | 174  | 184  | 197  | 285  | TOTAL |
    +-------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
    | ACC               |   4  |   5  |   4  |   2  |   2  |   3  |   3  |   4  |   2  |   1  |    30 |
    | Big 12            |   1  |   2  |   2  |   2  |   2  |   3  |   2  |   2  |   2  |   1  |    19 |
    | Big Ten           |   7  |   7  |   6  |   8  |   7  |   8  |   8  |   6  |   8  |   9  |    74 |
    | CAA               |   1  |   3  |   3  |   2  |   2  |   1  |   1  |   1  |   3  |   2  |    19 |
    | EIWA              |   4  |   2  |   7  |   4  |   5  |   5  |   4  |   5  |   5  |   4  |    45 |
    | EWA               |   1  |   3  |   2  |   3  |   3  |   3  |   1  |   2  |   2  |   3  |    23 |
    | MAC               |   4  |   3  |   1  |   2  |   3  |   2  |   5  |   4  |   3  |   3  |    30 |
    | Pac-12            |   1  |   2  |   1  |   2  |   2  |   1  |   3  |   3  |   2  |   4  |    21 |
    | Southern          |   2  |   1  |   2  |   1  |   1  |   2  |   1  |   1  |   1  |   1  |    13 |
    | West Regional     |   4  |   1  |   1  |   3  |   2  |   1  |   1  |   1  |   1  |   1  |    16 |
    | Total Qualifiers  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |  29  |   290 |
    +-------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+



  14. #14
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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Kind of got screwed at 125. The Big XII had three guys who were right near the cutoff for spots and only one of them made it. But nothing totally unexpected other than that. Gibson being one match shy of having an RPI hurts. As does Goettl's RPI not being high enough.

    Overall it's not a worst case scenario, but it's a worst reasonable case scenario for qualifiers.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-28-2013 at 05:23 PM.

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    Re: NCAA Qualifying Situations

    Pac-12 Championships were on Saturday. A few guys who had earned allocations got upset and will be looking for at large spots. The only one that likely impacts us is Ian Nickel from Cal State Bakersfield at 133. Nickel got injured and defaulted his way to last place. I'm not sure what the injury was. He was 21st in the coaches poll and 15th in RPI. If the injury wasn't bad enough to prevent him from being able to wrestle in 3 weeks I'd expect him be ahead of Meeks for a wild card. So that is a blow to the already slim chances of a wild card for Meeks.

    All of the remaining conference tournaments are this weekend.



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