Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 26
  1. #1
    Starter
    Points: 15,356, Level: 37
    Level completed: 64%, Points required for next Level: 294
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    10000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Cyrok's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    DSM
    Posts
    639
    Points
    15,356
    Level
    37
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 8
    Given: 49

    To Foul or Not to Foul

    Kenpom brings some statistics to the discussion on whether to foul or not when up 3:

    the kenpom.com blog

    The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

    One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.

    A second issue with intentionally fouling that I haven't seen discussed is the potential for the ref to call an intentional or flagrant foul. A poster in another thread stated that Clyburn should have grabbed his man before the ball was thrown in which makes me cringe because then it's up to the official whether or not it to call it a technical.

    We're all disappointed with the close games we've lost, but I doubt anyone is as disappointed as Fred and his team are. In spite of the heartbreakers, I am happy with the product these guys are putting on the court.

    Go Cyclones!



  2. #2
    Addict
    Points: 113,202, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 8.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    CysRage's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    6,407
    Points
    113,202
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 594
    Given: 498

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    In Hoiberg we trust



    "The greatest risk in life is not taking one"

  3. #3
    Legend
    Points: 274,502, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 47.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsSocialOverdriveCreated Album picturesVeteran
    Cy$'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    14,061
    Points
    274,502
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 590
    Given: 999

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    I don't have a problem with the strategy of not fouling. I do with how the team executes. Giving a decent look to Texas' best 3-point shooter in that situation shouldn't happen. On McLemore's shot, ISU's defense was late switching though overall it was a lucky *** shot.


    Category 3 Boat Shoes Campus Rep
    PM for Discounts / Promo Codes


    Talk to ISUCubsWin for Category 4
    Talk to BU4ISU for Category 5
    Talk to mjacobs for Category XXX

  4. #4
    Pro
    Points: 64,118, Level: 78
    Level completed: 55%, Points required for next Level: 732
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteranRecommendation First Class50000 Experience Points
    nallen34's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Marshalltown, Iowa
    Posts
    2,011
    Points
    64,118
    Level
    78
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 13
    Given: 10

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrok View Post

    The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

    One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?



  5. #5
    Legend
    Points: 284,511, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 88.0%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    VeloClone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Brooklyn Park, MN
    Posts
    14,966
    Points
    284,511
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 1,810
    Given: 3,109

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by nallen34 View Post
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?
    Well off the top of my head the team that was ahead could still win in OT. Or that team could still score in whatever time remains in regulation.


    Last edited by VeloClone; 02-15-2013 at 02:09 AM.
    "There are five real good recruits in the state. We got three of them. One couldnít get into school, and the other went to (the University of) Iowa...which is about the same thing." - Coach Johnny Orr

  6. #6
    Starter
    Points: 17,749, Level: 40
    Level completed: 63%, Points required for next Level: 301
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Johnston, IA
    Posts
    648
    Points
    17,749
    Level
    40
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 54
    Given: 40

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by nallen34 View Post
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?

    Additionally, they might not get a shot off at all, or the shot they get off isn't a 3.



  7. #7
    Addict
    Points: 77,375, Level: 86
    Level completed: 46%, Points required for next Level: 975
    Overall activity: 23.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Bigman38's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Council Bluffs, IA
    Posts
    5,507
    Points
    77,375
    Level
    86
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 478
    Given: 609

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

    The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.


    "But letís see if the Cyclones can give everyone a nice big ****burger to eat. Opportunity awaits." -Brent Blum

    "I am the one who knocks" -Walter White

  8. #8
    Starter
    Points: 15,356, Level: 37
    Level completed: 64%, Points required for next Level: 294
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    10000 Experience PointsVeteran
    Cyrok's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    DSM
    Posts
    639
    Points
    15,356
    Level
    37
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 8
    Given: 49

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigman38 View Post
    those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

    The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.
    Yeah, we've been extremely unlucky.



  9. #9
    Addict
    Points: 107,417, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 29.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points1 year registeredSocialOverdrive
    cmjh10's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    8,806
    Points
    107,417
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2,031
    Given: 3,162

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.


    Naz Long, the Cowboy Killer

  10. #10
    Addict
    Points: 211,775, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 6.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CyDude16's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Heads in the sky
    Posts
    9,781
    Points
    211,775
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 345
    Given: 1,264

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    This topic is new, I've never heard about this who foul or not foul thing.



  11. #11
    Starter
    Points: 20,855, Level: 44
    Level completed: 12%, Points required for next Level: 795
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience PointsSocial
    BringBackJohnny's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    805
    Points
    20,855
    Level
    44
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 45
    Given: 20

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    IMO - you always foul. I am basing this on my statisits though.

    If you foul the other team needs a series of events to come to fruition in order to be successful. While if you do not foul you only need one single event to happen to be successful. Just based on that I would take my chanes of making the other team complete a series of perfect events instead of one singular event.


    Smoke um if you got um

  12. #12
    Pro
    Points: 37,523, Level: 59
    Level completed: 73%, Points required for next Level: 327
    Overall activity: 9.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran25000 Experience Points
    wonkadog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Ames, IA
    Posts
    3,451
    Points
    37,523
    Level
    59
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 114
    Given: 131

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    We need a coach to get in here and officially end the debate by stating that you never foul in that situation. I believe they all have to promise to uphold this principle before getting their coaching license.


    "It's appropriate for leaders sometimes to move boldly against the flow of public opinion," she said. "That's called leadership." --- Sarah Swisher (D), Superdelegate, Iowa City

  13. #13
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 45,921, Level: 66
    Level completed: 27%, Points required for next Level: 1,029
    Overall activity: 13.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    heitclone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Malvern, IA
    Posts
    4,854
    Points
    45,921
    Level
    66
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 186
    Given: 341

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Fouling almost cost us in regulation at Texas, had Lucious not hit his FT's Texas would have been shooting for the game winner. Had we not fouled the worst case scenario would have been OT. Not worth the risk.



  14. #14
    Addict
    Points: 51,183, Level: 70
    Level completed: 3%, Points required for next Level: 1,367
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    Drive4cy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    972
    Posts
    5,541
    Points
    51,183
    Level
    70
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 15
    Given: 43

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    I'm fine with either strategy too but its all about preference. The fact Fred chose to foul in the Texas game speaks volumes of where he stands on the issue. I can't wait to see what he does the next time he's in that position.



  15. #15
    Speechless
    Points: 258,992, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 21.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    16,071
    Points
    258,992
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 792
    Given: 691

    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by cmjh10 View Post
    Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.
    Or bad defense, in the case of Texas.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: FS1
  • FOOTBALL: Iowa State vs. West Virginia
  • November 29, 2014
  • 11:00 AM