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    To Foul or Not to Foul

    Kenpom brings some statistics to the discussion on whether to foul or not when up 3:

    the kenpom.com blog

    The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

    One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.

    A second issue with intentionally fouling that I haven't seen discussed is the potential for the ref to call an intentional or flagrant foul. A poster in another thread stated that Clyburn should have grabbed his man before the ball was thrown in which makes me cringe because then it's up to the official whether or not it to call it a technical.

    We're all disappointed with the close games we've lost, but I doubt anyone is as disappointed as Fred and his team are. In spite of the heartbreakers, I am happy with the product these guys are putting on the court.

    Go Cyclones!



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    In Hoiberg we trust



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    I don't have a problem with the strategy of not fouling. I do with how the team executes. Giving a decent look to Texas' best 3-point shooter in that situation shouldn't happen. On McLemore's shot, ISU's defense was late switching though overall it was a lucky *** shot.


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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrok View Post

    The link might need a subscription, but the condensed version is that in every late-game situation since the 2009-2010 season when protecting a 3 point lead, teams that intentionally foul win 92.7% of the time while teams that choose to defend honestly win 94% of the time.

    One possible reason Pomeroy gives is that when a defense knows you must have a 3 pointer with limited time remaining, teams only make 16.1% verses the D1 average of 33.8% for all 3 pointers.
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by nallen34 View Post
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?
    Well off the top of my head the team that was ahead could still win in OT. Or that team could still score in whatever time remains in regulation.


    Last edited by VeloClone; 02-15-2013 at 02:09 AM.
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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by nallen34 View Post
    If teams shoot 16% on last second 3's how is there a 94% winning percentage for the team that doesn't foul?

    Additionally, they might not get a shot off at all, or the shot they get off isn't a 3.



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

    The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.


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  8. #8
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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigman38 View Post
    those stats just make me sick when we're 1-3(?) in that situation this year.

    The college basketball gods owe us a couple breaks come tourney time.
    Yeah, we've been extremely unlucky.



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.


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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    This topic is new, I've never heard about this who foul or not foul thing.



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    IMO - you always foul. I am basing this on my statisits though.

    If you foul the other team needs a series of events to come to fruition in order to be successful. While if you do not foul you only need one single event to happen to be successful. Just based on that I would take my chanes of making the other team complete a series of perfect events instead of one singular event.


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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    We need a coach to get in here and officially end the debate by stating that you never foul in that situation. I believe they all have to promise to uphold this principle before getting their coaching license.


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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Fouling almost cost us in regulation at Texas, had Lucious not hit his FT's Texas would have been shooting for the game winner. Had we not fouled the worst case scenario would have been OT. Not worth the risk.



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    I'm fine with either strategy too but its all about preference. The fact Fred chose to foul in the Texas game speaks volumes of where he stands on the issue. I can't wait to see what he does the next time he's in that position.



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    Re: To Foul or Not to Foul

    Quote Originally Posted by cmjh10 View Post
    Can we drop this? We have done both strategies and have lost both times. Its just bad luck, thats all it is right now. Sometime down the road, the luck will turn on our favor and we wont have to have this conversation anymore.
    Or bad defense, in the case of Texas.



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