Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 32
  1. #1
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Tempo-Free Stats

    Here's some early stat calculations concerning our team, namely PPWS and eFG, stats I first found being tracked by John Gasaway, first from Big Ten Wonk and now from Basketball Prospectus.

    First, a little bit about each stat.

    PPWS: points per weighted shot
    PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))

    PPWS is an odd name that I coined a couple years ago and applied to a stat created by John Hollinger. In effect, PPWS measures how efficiently a player translates field goal attempts and free throws into points.

    In PPWS terms, anything over 1.30 is outstanding. (Players attaining this level of scoring efficiency are often twice-blessed: they had an unusually great year shooting threes and they had teammates occupying the attention of opposing defenses.) Among Big Ten players who logged at least 15 minutes per game, last year's average PPWS was 1.09. A PPWS under 1.00 indicates a player who really struggled to get the ball in the hole.

    Additional reading. Last year I mused that PPWS "is a more reliable tool for criticism than for praise."
    Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.--scroll down for 2005 figures)
    eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA

    About this stat....
    A straight field goal percentage is fine as far as it goes (better than rebounds-per-game, certainly) but, since the advent of the three-point shot, it’s less informative than the following:

    Effective FG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA

    For instance—Illinois ranked second in the Big Ten last year in straight FG pct. in conference play:

    Michigan State: .498 (431/866)
    Illinois: .485 (432/890)

    But, of course, the Illini attempted many more three point shots (351) than did the Spartans (283) and, as the old saying goes, making a third of your three-pointers is just as good as making half your two-pointers.

    So the fact that Illinois shot .013 lower from the field than did Michigan State is misleading when unaccompanied by the additional fact that Bruce Weber’s team sank a very healthy share of those three-pointers:

    Illinois eFG pct. = (432 + (0.5 x 145))/890 = (432 + 72.5)/890 = 504.5/890 = .567
    Michigan State eFG pct. = (431 + (0.5 x 93))/866 = (431 + 46.5)/866 = 477.5/866 = .551

    An eFG pct. merely recognizes mathematical reality: a made three-pointer is worth 0.5 more than a made two-pointer. Using a straight FG pct. in the presence of the three-point shot, then, is roughly analogous to calculating a batting average using plate appearances instead of official at-bats.
    Now, I know most of you don't care about this sort of stuff, comparable in a way to sabermetrics in baseball, but I've kind of looked at it as pinpointing guys that'd help us by shooting more or less.

    Anyways, here's the PPWS.

    1. C. Johnson 1.50
    2. Clark 1.40
    3. Petersen 1.32
    4. Brackins 1.19
    5. Garrett 1.01
    6. Hubalek 0.96
    7. Vette 0.96
    8. Boozer 0.53
    9. Thompson 0.38
    10. Haluska 0.11

    It essentially means any given shot from Clark is worth 1.4 points right now, while any given shot from Jiri is working out to .96 points.

    Now, effective Field Goal%, along with real FG%.

    1. Vette 100% (100%)
    2. C. Johnson 75% (75%)
    3. Clark 68% (61%)
    4. Petersen 65% (46%)
    5. Brackins 57% (56%)
    6. Hubalek 44% (44%)
    7. Garrett 41% (41%)
    8. Boozer 28% (21%)
    9. Thompson 14% (14%)
    10. Haluska 6% (6%)

    eFG is a stat that is helped out by made threes, cause, well, 3>2. In a system like Mac's that depends some on the three, this stat holds a greater significance than a team that likes to limit threes.

    Now, it's hard to draw conclusions on guys with less than 20 attempts, and really, premature to draw any major conclusions on anyone that's not a freshman.

    I really think that this highlights that Cory Johnson is a legitimate scoring threat when he touches the ball, as, IIRC, he led us in PPWS last year. If he can defend a guy, I'd like to see more PT out of him for his scoring ability. I also think that this shows that the more touches for Rahshon with chances to score are going to help our scoring. Along with that, Petersen is not a horrible option at the 2, because when he does shoot, he's not hurting us a ton, and it's pretty evident that our offense needs help, not so much the defense.

    I think I've posted this stuff in the past, but it's interesting to follow.

    If only Cory Johnson was four inches taller...


    Last edited by CrossCyed; 11-21-2007 at 05:06 PM.

  2. #2
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Also, I can try to figure out the career numbers on this for CoJo, Clark, Jiri and Thompson, as well as Wes from last year, plus JC numbers for BP and SH if I haven't scared away anyone yet. :)

    Career Numbers

    Clark: 1.15 PPWS, 55% eFG, 48% FG
    W Johnson: 1.06 PPWS, 50% eFG, 44% FG
    C Johnson: 1.20 PPWS, 59% eFG, 55% FG
    Hubalek: 1.05 PPWS, 49% eFG, 47% FG
    ----
    Thompson: 0.72 PPWS, 35% eFG, 34% FG
    -----
    Haluska @ IH 1.07 PPWS, 50% eFG%, 46% FG
    Petersen @ KWood 1.18 PPWS, 57% eFG%, 45% FG
    ---
    Mike Taylor (last year) 0.99 PPWS, 46% eFG%, 38% FG%


    Last edited by CrossCyed; 11-21-2007 at 04:59 PM.

  3. #3
    Addict
    Points: 44,421, Level: 65
    Level completed: 14%, Points required for next Level: 1,129
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    mwitt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    5,801
    Points
    44,421
    Level
    65
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 3

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossCyed View Post
    Mike Taylor (last year) 0.99 PPWS, 46% eFG%, 38% FG%
    And that doesn't include his off the court problems and the liability he was with turnovers. Yep, I sure do miss him.



  4. #4
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    More numbers than most people like, eh?



  5. #5
    Speechless
    Points: 392,676, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    57,369
    Points
    392,676
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 343
    Given: 268

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Rashon is a senior and needs to shoot.


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
    Let my Fred's Four Horsemen ride: Georges, Hogue, Nader, and McKay.

  6. #6
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Eight games in....

    PPWS
    1. Clark 1.26
    2. CJohnson 1.20
    3. Petersen 1.09
    4. WJohnson 1.06
    5. Brackins 1.00
    6. Hubalek .99
    7. Boozer .82
    8. Garrett .77
    9. Thompson .64
    10. Haluska .31

    eFG
    1. Clark 61%
    2. CJohnson 57.1%
    3. Petersen 51.3%
    4. WJohnson 50%
    5. Brackins 46.6%
    6. Hubalek 45.9%
    7. Boozer 42.3%
    8. Thompson 31.5%
    9. Garrett 30.2%
    10. Haluska 15.4%

    We've got a pretty pisspoor offense. Maybe we should look to run more shots through Rahshon, because he's still the best shooter on the team through 8 games. Maybe we can get Cory in there, unleashing the dragon a bit. If he can find his shot, it tends to go in.



  7. #7
    Bench Warmer
    Points: 6,681, Level: 24
    Level completed: 27%, Points required for next Level: 369
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Indianola, Iowa
    Posts
    263
    Points
    6,681
    Level
    24
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 6
    Given: 93

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    I really like CJ's offensive game. He's shown that he can score a lot of points real quickly. I wish he got a chance to play for longer stretches. It seems like he's never in for more than a couple of minutes before getting yanked, presumably for a defensive mistake or missed rebound. He must be doing something wrong. Maybe in this next stretch of games, he'll get an opportunity to show what he can do.


    "The values to which people cling most stubbornly under inappropriate conditions are those values that were previously the source of their greatest triumphs over adversity." -Jared Diamond, Collapse

  8. #8
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by necromancy View Post
    I really like CJ's offensive game. He's shown that he can score a lot of points real quickly. I wish he got a chance to play for longer stretches. It seems like he's never in for more than a couple of minutes before getting yanked, presumably for a defensive mistake or missed rebound. He must be doing something wrong. Maybe in this next stretch of games, he'll get an opportunity to show what he can do.
    The problem is, that he's going to be behind Rahshon or Wes or Craig or Jiri most of the time.



  9. #9
    Walk On Achievements:
    Veteran1000 Experience Points
    bjwitt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    173
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    how long do you spend doing this. amazing,



  10. #10
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by bjwitt View Post
    how long do you spend doing this. amazing,
    I've got a spreadsheet I can plug the totals into pretty quickly, but I also go to basketballstate.com and they have the stats sometimes (and sometimes they want me to sign up). They had the PPWS and eFG available for me today, so I wrote em down while I could.



  11. #11
    Walk On Achievements:
    Veteran1000 Experience Points
    bjwitt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    173
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    ic very efficient



  12. #12
    Speechless
    Points: 253,254, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    BryceC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,563
    Points
    253,254
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 91
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by mwitt View Post
    And that doesn't include his off the court problems and the liability he was with turnovers. Yep, I sure do miss him.
    The funny thing is he'd be our most efficient shooting guard behind Peterson who barely shoots. Taylor would be a tremendous help to this team.

    As for Cory, his problem isn't scoring, he's very good at that. It's defense and rebounding. I still have high hopes for Cory, we'll need him to be a BIG contributor next year, he's at the very least first off the bench for the big guys.




  13. #13
    Bench Warmer
    Points: 6,681, Level: 24
    Level completed: 27%, Points required for next Level: 369
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran5000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Indianola, Iowa
    Posts
    263
    Points
    6,681
    Level
    24
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 6
    Given: 93

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by BryceC View Post
    As for Cory, his problem isn't scoring, he's very good at that. It's defense and rebounding. I still have high hopes for Cory, we'll need him to be a BIG contributor next year, he's at the very least first off the bench for the big guys.
    It would be nice to see him get more minutes when we're having trouble scoring. Although we might take a hit on the defensive end, he could at least be a catalyst on the offensive end when we hit those (frequent) dry spells.

    Maybe next year is when he starts reaching his potential.


    "The values to which people cling most stubbornly under inappropriate conditions are those values that were previously the source of their greatest triumphs over adversity." -Jared Diamond, Collapse

  14. #14
    Addict
    Points: 143,290, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 3.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation First ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    CrossCyed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    9,383
    Points
    143,290
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 9
    Given: 0

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    We've got a pretty good defense, but our offense is BAD. Bad enough to deserve capital letters. We could use just about any offense.



  15. #15
    Speechless
    Points: 185,299, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 8.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    ajk4st8's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Ankeny
    Posts
    15,318
    Points
    185,299
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 98
    Given: 257

    Re: Tempo-Free Stats

    The problem is CJ plays in slop time a lot.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM