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  1. #121
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page



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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckd4735 View Post
    Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page
    If that site provided the maps out to the end of the storm (144hours vs. 120) the grand total from the GFS is 12.4" (for Des Moines).

    The GFS total, is banking on 10" in a period of 10 hours, including one window of 4-5" in a 3" period.

    So right now, the GFS model is indicating snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour over a 7 or 8 hour window, which, well, doesn't happen often, here, for that long.

    For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.



  3. #123
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckd4735 View Post
    Earl is starting to warm up... Earl's GIS Radar Site Overlays Page
    Yes, and this is just the beginning of HOPEFULLY a week to remember in local weather.

    Here is a 2 storm total- the graph is from the 12z GFS 204 hr snowfall totals

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	usaasnowipersfc204g.gif 
Views:	333 
Size:	48.4 KB 
ID:	18309


    Last edited by cyinne; 02-16-2013 at 02:51 PM.

  4. #124
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cyinne View Post
    Yes, and this is just the beginning of HOPEFULLY a week to remember in local weather.

    Here is a 2 storm total- the graph is from the 12z GFS 204 hr snowfall totals

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	usaasnowipersfc204g.gif 
Views:	333 
Size:	48.4 KB 
ID:	18309


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

  5. #125
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    So, they're basically saying no less than a foot of snow?
    That would be impressive. I miss getting buried by a blizzard.


    Since we are an elite team now, let's go get that One Cyclone Moment.
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  6. #126
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    18z update




  7. #127
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneErik View Post
    So, they're basically saying no less than a foot of snow?
    No. "They" aren't.

    Unless your "they" is raw model output. Then yes.

    If "they" are the forecasters, then no. We are not saying that. Not right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by FDWxMan View Post
    For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.



  8. #128
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by alarson View Post
    18z update

    18Z GFS output puts Des Moines at 9.3" after accounting for compaction.



  9. #129
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    I'm confused by the two images... is there a 2nd storm coming in behind Thursday's storm?


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by AirWalke View Post
    I'm confused by the two images... is there a 2nd storm coming in behind Thursday's storm?
    I wouldn't bet on it yet. The first image goes well into "model fantasy land." But yes, the 204 hour image is depicting 2 systems.

    alarson's image is showing only the snow from the Thursday/Friday system, at least according to that model.



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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by FDWxMan View Post
    I wouldn't bet on it yet. The first image goes well into "model fantasy land." But yes, the 204 hour image is depicting 2 systems.

    alarson's image is showing only the snow from the Thursday/Friday system, at least according to that model.
    Thanks for the clarification; I think I much prefer model fantasy land.


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    when is that 2nd system supposely coming around if it happens



  13. #133
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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by hurdleisu24 View Post
    when is that 2nd system supposely coming around if it happens
    Late Sunday/Monday/early Tuesday timeframe.



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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by FDWxMan View Post
    18Z GFS output puts Des Moines at 9.3" after accounting for compaction.
    So, how much do you think we are getting? I know it will change, but if you had to guess.


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    Re: Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUcy08 View Post
    So, how much do you think we are getting? I know it will change, but if you had to guess.
    I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.

    I'm a bit worried since this could sort of be a "dying" system, that dry air could get wrapped in on Thursday and cut stuff down.

    Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.

    But this thing doesn't move onshore until Tuesday, so those numbers really don't have a lot of significance or meaning at this point.

    There is still potential there for totals to go over that in Des Moines, but that's where my gut is going right now.



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