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  1. #46
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    ISU up 30-6 with one match left. If Gibson got a win here it would be a huge boost to his NCAA resume. MSU guy is ranked 7th.



  2. #47
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    McClure up 4-1 after the first.



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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    McClure wins it 9-1 over Gibson. Iowa State wins it 30-10. Overall a good meet but a win by Molina would have gone a long way towards getting a 4th guy NCAA qualified.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-15-2013 at 08:20 PM.

  4. #49
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Goettl, Beard and Gibson not having 17 D-1 matches is really going to bite us in the *** next week. They are all as good as other guys who will get auto spots but lack the minimum number of matches. And only Beard has a favorable bracket in Big XIIs to steal a spot.



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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Get posting tonight Judoka.. I was just going to ask how bad it was going to be not having guys with 17 D-1 matches but you got it covered..



  6. #51
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Quote Originally Posted by ISU22CY View Post
    Get posting tonight Judoka.. I was just going to ask how bad it was going to be not having guys with 17 D-1 matches but you got it covered..
    60% of our guys won't have the 17 match minimum. If it was only one or two I would put it on the wrestler. But when over half the team is deficient I put in on the coaches. Our schedule will cost at least one wrestler (Beard) and probably more (Goettl and Gibson) spots in Des Moines.



  7. #52
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    Goettl, Beard and Gibson not having 17 D-1 matches is really going to bite us in the *** next week. They are all as good as other guys who will get auto spots but lack the minimum number of matches. And only Beard has a favorable bracket in Big XIIs to steal a spot.
    Great having you back with your pre-meet projections Judoka - kinda like a pre-game show!! Appreciate your projections and you were pretty close this time around.

    Really happy for Meeks. This must have been a really long season for him; this is nice way to approach the season end.

    Are we starting to see the influence of Nickerson at the lighter weights? Since he arrived, it seems there has been gradual improvement - maybe just my imagination but I don't think so.

    Finally, wonder what coach's explanation is that so many of our guys are lacking sufficient matches for our wrestlers to qualify the "easier route" for DSM. Surely one of our goals as a team is to get as many guys into the tournament as possible!



  8. #53
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    If the Big XII duals were being held earlier it wouldn't be an issue - they will all meet the 17 match minimum to be ranked in RPI after the Big XII duals. But that is also after allocations are announced. So it only helps in trying to grasp for an at-large spot. 33 wrestlers at each weight class qualify and 29 spots are allocated for the qualifying tournaments. Leaving 4 at large spots to be given out after the qualifying tournaments are over. Generally, guys who are upset in qualifying tournaments get first dibs on the at large spots.

    Spots are earned by wrestlers but given to the qualifying tournaments. So for example if two guys at 125 in the Big XII have earned spots then the guys who take 1st and 2nd at the Big XII tournament are NCAA qualifiers - regardless of whether they were the two wrestlers who earned the spots for the tournament. If someone who earned a spot doesn't place high enough they have to hope for an at large bid.

    To be a prequalifier a wrestler must have two of these three things:
    -Top RPI ranking (around top 27, it can go up or down to get to their 29 prequalifiers)
    -Top Coaches ranking (around top 27, it can go up or down to get to their 29 prequalifiers)
    -.700 win percentage (This also can be adjusted up or down to get to 29 prequalifiers)

    What is biting us right now is that you have to have 17 matches to be included in RPI. So we have guys like Beard who are high in the coaches ranking and would easily be high enough in RPI if they had enough matches.

    Our schedule didn't leave any leeway for injuries or missed matches, only 4 of our 10 guys will reach the 17 match threshold. Of those, I expect three of them (Moreno, Weatherman, Gadson) to earn qualifying spots, with the fourth (Molina) just on the outside and needing to steal a spot at Big XIIs.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-16-2013 at 01:07 PM.

  9. #54
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Wrestlers who meet at least one of the following are eligible for at large bids:
     .700 Win %
     Top 33 RPI
     Top 33 CR (2/22/12 measure)
     .700 winning percentage against all competition
     One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (pre-allocated)
     Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification


    At-large selections then are made based on the following criteria:

    -Head-to-head competition
    -Qualifying event placement
    -Quality wins
    -Results against common opponents
    -Winning percentage
    -RPI (updated after qualifying tournaments)
    -Coaches Poll (Not updated after qualifying tournaments)
    -Ranking
    -Number of matches contested at that weight class


    At large spot availability is highly dependent on who gets upset in the qualifying tournaments. There are only 4 at each weight class so they fill up quickly.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-16-2013 at 10:27 AM.

  10. #55
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Quote Originally Posted by psyclone51 View Post
    Finally, wonder what coach's explanation is that so many of our guys are lacking sufficient matches for our wrestlers to qualify the "easier route" for DSM. Surely one of our goals as a team is to get as many guys into the tournament as possible!
    Our schedule did not leave much room to miss a meet or two with injuries. And the Big XII duals happen too late to be included.



  11. #56
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Eastern Michigan tomorrow:

    Code:
    +-----+-------------------+-------+-----------+-----+-----------------+-------+----------+
    |  #  |        ISU        |  W/L  |   Rank    |  .  |  Eastern Mich   |  W/L  |   Rank   |
    +-----+-------------------+-------+-----------+-----+-----------------+-------+----------+
    | 125 | Ryak Finch        | 10-7  | NR/NR/NR  | vs. | Jared Germaine  | 13-7  | NR/NR/NR |
    | 133 | John Meeks        | 7-8   | NR/NR/NR  | vs. | Jacob Byers     | 14-10 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 141 | Luke Goettl       | 10-10 | NR/NR/NR  | vs. | Micheal Shaw    | 11-14 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 149 | Max Mayfield      | 9-10  |  NR/NR/NR | vs. | Justin Melick   | 10-11 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 157 | Logan Molina      | 15-15 | NR/NR/NR  | vs. | Aaron Sulzer    | 16-9  | NR/NR/NR |
    | 165 | Mike Moreno       | 21-6  | 19/18/20  | vs. | Jake Dorulla    | 10-15 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 174 | Tanner Weatherman | 14-5  | 20/19/20  | vs. | Jacob Davis     | 18-10 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 184 | Boaz Beard        | 9-5   | 15/11/16  | vs. | Phillip Joseph  | 15-10 | NR/NR/NR |
    | 197 | Kyven Gadson      | 19-2  | 7/7/7     | vs. | Nick Whitenburg | 11-5  | NR/NR/NR |
    | HWT | Matt Gibson       | 13-7  | NR/NR/19  | vs. | Chris Eggert    | 4-10  | NR/NR/NR |
    +-----+-------------------+-------+-----------+-----+-----------------+-------+----------+
    When MSU and Eastern Michigan wrestled earlier in the season MSU won 25-11

    Michigan State 25 - 11 Eastern Michigan
    125 lbs. - Jared Germaine (EMU) maj. dec. Brenan Lyon (MSU), 11-3
    133 lbs. - Vincent Pizzuto (EMU) maj. dec. Terry Turner (MSU), 14-5
    141 lbs. - Nick Trimble (MSU) fall Seth Schaner (EMU), 6:01
    149 lbs. - Dan Osterman (MSU) dec. Justin Melick (EMU), 7-3
    157 lbs. - Ryan Watts (MSU) dec. No. 24 Aaron Sulzer (EMU), 3-2
    165 lbs. - David Cheza (MSU) maj. dec. Jacob Dorulla (EMU), 11-2
    174 lbs. - Jordan Wohlfert (MSU) dec. Mike Curby (EMU), 3-2
    184 lbs. - John Rizqallah (MSU) dec. Khodor Hoballah (EMU), 4-0
    197 lbs. - Phillip Joseph (EMU) dec. Nick McDiarmid (MSU), 4-1
    285 lbs. - No. 13 Michael McClure (MSU) dec. Chris Eggert (EMU), 5-0

    125:
    Germaine has a similar resume to Finch this year. They both have wins over Lyon from MSU and losses to Sprenkle from NDSU. This should be a competitive match but EMU will have the edge. An upset would be a nice win for Finch to build an argument for an at-large bid to Des Moines. Eastern Michigan is favored.

    133:
    Byers has a better record but doesn't have much in the way of quality wins. Meeks had a great match on Friday and I look for that to continue. ISU is favored.

    141:
    Shaw is not a very good wrestler and Goettl can't afford a bad loss. I look for Goettl to continue to roll and get a major decision or better. ISU is favored.

    149:
    Mayfield and Melick also have pretty comparable results so far this year. I expect it to be a competitive match with Mayfield coming out on top. ISU is slightly favored.

    157:
    Sulzer is on the fringe of being an NCAA prequalifier so he has a lot to wrestle for. Molina wrestled tough on Friday but came up short against a guy who is similar in skill level to Sulzer. This also should be a competitive match but EMU will have the edge. Eastern Michigan is favored.

    165:
    Moreno should continue to roll. I look for him to get a major decision or better against Dorulla. ISU is heavily favored.

    174:
    Davis is one of EMU's better wrestlers but Weatherman has been a beast recently. A win by Weatherman would solidify his NCAA prequalifier status and I expect him to get it. A major decision would be nice but looking at Davis's matches this year he keeps most of them close so I expect Weeatherman will control the match and win a comfortable regular decision. ISU is favored.

    184:
    Joseph is also a pretty decent wrestler and this will be a dangerous match for Beard. Beard should get a win here but this matchup makes me a bit nervous. ISU is favored.

    197:
    Whitenburg has wrestled 16 matches this season. Seven of them have been decided by fall (5 wins 2 losses). Gadson is unquestionably better but will have to be careful not to get caught and pinned. ISU is favored.

    HWT:
    Eggert is not very good at this whole Wrestling thing. Gibson is. ISU is heavily favored.

    I expect that there will be a few good individual matches but the final score will be similar to what we saw on Friday. We should win seven or eight matches and get bonus points at a few weights. Something along the lines of 28-6 or 25-9.



  12. #57
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    I forgot to note that on Friday - Weatheman's win against Wohlfert put him over 17 matches for an RPI ranking and also put his win percentage above .700. He, Moreno, and Gadson all have earned NCAA prequalifier bids for the Big XII tournament.

    If we convince EMU to have an exhibition match for Gibson he'd also have a bid (start at Heavyweight and then have him go again at the end against another guy, or even wrestle the same guy again). But since that is unlikely he is going to be one match short of the number he needs for an RPI ranking. Gibson is 24th in the coaches poll and likely would have an RPI in the mid 20s if he got to 17 matches.

    If Jackson can convince the Eastern Michigan coach to do that it would be a huge boost for us in Des Moines.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-16-2013 at 05:34 PM.

  13. #58
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    If Jackson can convince the Eastern Michigan coach to do that it would be a huge boost for us in Des Moines.
    Is that even a possibility? Are things like that ever done?



  14. #59
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    Quote Originally Posted by LindenCy View Post
    Is that even a possibility? Are things like that ever done?
    You'll see it sometimes on a senior night to give a non-starter senior a chance to get a match in front of the home crowd. Or for a guy from the area to get a match in front of his family. Situations like that. It's not unheard of.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-16-2013 at 06:07 PM.

  15. #60
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    Re: ***Mighigan State/Eastern Michigan Preview/Prediction/Results 2/15&2/17***

    To clarify, the reason he is at 13-7 but not at 17 matches is because only matches against D-1 competition count. Gibson is 8-7 against D-1 competition so far this year.



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