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  1. #1
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    Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    The linked article estimates that a withdrawal from Iraq should take no longer than six months.

    A few excerpts follow:

    Modern armies, including ours, are mobile. So why would it take so much longer to leave? The short answer is that it won’t.

    The long answer is that talk about an 18-month withdrawal is the product of confused priorities and poor strategic analysis.

    Leaving behind everything but war-fighting equipment makes the move manageable. We’ve shipped something like 9 million tons of stuff to Iraq, but only a small fraction—less than 10 percent—is war materiel. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says that we have somewhere between 140,000 and 200,000 tons of crucial equipment and supplies in Iraq, as well as 15-20,000 vehicles and major weapons. That can’t add up to more than half a million tons total. Those vehicles can be driven out. The “crucial equipment” would have to be trucked out, which would take a week or two of normal traffic on the main road to Kuwait. We already make over 1,000 trips a day, and the trucks must be nearly empty when returning.

    The insurgents today have no tanks, no APCs, no heavy artillery, and yet we’re supposed to worry about the havoc they would wreak during any withdrawal. We’ve been seeing about 100 men a month killed in action in 2007, we’d lose fewer in a rapid withdrawal than we would by staying one more month. The insurgents excel at planting IEDs and blending into the population—but that’s all they’re good at. In a conventional battle, they would do about as well as a rabbit in a lawnmower. If you’re worried that the Iraqi army we’re always training might turn on us, relax: we never gave them any heavy weapons, which shows that someone was thinking ahead.

    The bottom line is that we can get troops and war-fighting equipment out of Iraq rapidly and relatively safely, certainly in less than six months, probably in three.

    Link:
    Easy Out



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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    I bet the results of that would be truly horrific. Our withdrawal from Lebanon in 1983 led directly to 9/11. No doubt about it, whatsoever.

    So what if we cause millions more to die horrific deaths because we (the US) withdraw. So what if we never, ever have an ally trust us, at all, because we retreat whenever it suits us. So what, if we put each and every American abroad in danger by this precipitous move.

    Heck, there are places within the continental US that want the Federal gov't out. Should we withdraw from New Orleans as well?

    Maybe we should ask Iran and Venezuela how much of the continental US we should be allowed to keep?


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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    The linked article estimates that a withdrawal from Iraq should take no longer than six months.

    A few excerpts follow:

    Modern armies, including ours, are mobile. So why would it take so much longer to leave? The short answer is that it won’t.

    The long answer is that talk about an 18-month withdrawal is the product of confused priorities and poor strategic analysis.

    Leaving behind everything but war-fighting equipment makes the move manageable. We’ve shipped something like 9 million tons of stuff to Iraq, but only a small fraction—less than 10 percent—is war materiel. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says that we have somewhere between 140,000 and 200,000 tons of crucial equipment and supplies in Iraq, as well as 15-20,000 vehicles and major weapons. That can’t add up to more than half a million tons total. Those vehicles can be driven out. The “crucial equipment” would have to be trucked out, which would take a week or two of normal traffic on the main road to Kuwait. We already make over 1,000 trips a day, and the trucks must be nearly empty when returning.

    The insurgents today have no tanks, no APCs, no heavy artillery, and yet we’re supposed to worry about the havoc they would wreak during any withdrawal. We’ve been seeing about 100 men a month killed in action in 2007, we’d lose fewer in a rapid withdrawal than we would by staying one more month. The insurgents excel at planting IEDs and blending into the population—but that’s all they’re good at. In a conventional battle, they would do about as well as a rabbit in a lawnmower. If you’re worried that the Iraqi army we’re always training might turn on us, relax: we never gave them any heavy weapons, which shows that someone was thinking ahead.

    The bottom line is that we can get troops and war-fighting equipment out of Iraq rapidly and relatively safely, certainly in less than six months, probably in three.

    Link:
    Easy Out
    The people who say that we should leave Iraq, leave our gear and that we can do it in six months are simply not being realistic. I am going to swag it (go just on my memory alone) and say that it took us over over 24 months to get our men and material out of Iraq and Kuwait and other places and to settle up accounts after Desert Storm. Getting men and material out of a war zone and do it IAW regulations and the law is a massive logistical undertaking.

    Furthermore, leaving Iraq is not solely a matter of getting our men and war gear out. We have a duty to factor into our exit operations what happens to the locals and others who along the way assisted our civil and military missions. Who knows how much time it will take to execute this phase of our exit operations.



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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Tremain View Post
    The people who say that we should leave Iraq, leave our gear and that we can do it in six months are simply not being realistic. I am going to swag it (go just on my memory alone) and say that it took us over over 24 months to get our men and material out of Iraq and Kuwait and other places and to settle up accounts after Desert Storm. Getting men and material out of a war zone and do it IAW regulations and the law is a massive logistical undertaking.

    Furthermore, leaving Iraq is not solely a matter of getting our men and war gear out. We have a duty to factor into our exit operations what happens to the locals and others who along the way assisted our civil and military missions. Who knows how much time it will take to execute this phase of our exit operations.
    I agree completely. My thought is 2-3 years to do it in an effective manner that will preserve stability.



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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclonepride View Post
    I agree completely. My thought is 2-3 years to do it in an effective manner that will preserve stability.
    Could you define what you mean by "preserving stability?" Is it the time period for the Iraqi's to take over their internal security from the U.S. military? If that is your definition, it would be guess work at best to estimate the time period.



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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    Could you define what you mean by "preserving stability?" Is it the time period for the Iraqi's to take over their internal security from the U.S. military? If that is your definition, it would be guess work at best to estimate the time period.
    No, I meant withdrawing in a manner that doesn't create mass panic and tons of refugees, while also keeping our troops safe on the way out. If you wanted to get out in a short period of time, the roads would be absolutely clogged with men and materials, and they would be a prime target for IED's and RPG attacks.



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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclonepride View Post
    No, I meant withdrawing in a manner that doesn't create mass panic and tons of refugees, while also keeping our troops safe on the way out. If you wanted to get out in a short period of time, the roads would be absolutely clogged with men and materials, and they would be a prime target for IED's and RPG attacks.
    Logistically speaking, a six month redeployment is possible. In the first Gulf War, the United States had upwards of 200,000 troops in theater at the high point of operations. Nearly all of those forces were withdrawn over the course of a four month period.

    Regardless of what the time frame is, withdrawal is the path that this nation should be taking.

    I have linked an article that explores the issues involved and the time frame connected with a withdrawal from Iraq:

    Link:
    How to withdraw quickly and safely - The Boston Globe


    Last edited by alaskaguy; 11-21-2007 at 05:44 PM.

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    Re: Iraqi Timetable For Withdrawal

    Quote Originally Posted by alaskaguy View Post
    Logistically speaking, a six month redeployment is possible. In the first Gulf War, the United States had upwards of 200,000 troops in theater at the high point of operations. Nearly all of those forces were withdrawn over the course of a four month period.

    Regardless of what the time frame is, withdrawal is the path that this nation should be taking.

    I have linked an article that explores the issues involved and the time frame connected with a withdrawal from Iraq:

    Link:
    How to withdraw quickly and safely - The Boston Globe
    Lt. Gen. Sanchez seems to think it can be done fairly quickly:

    The Associated Press: Ex-Iraq Commander Says Bring Troops Home

    I don't know much about the details, but I do know that the military is very good at logistics. My guess is that if they were told to be out in 6 months, they would figure out the best way of getting out in 6 months. If they were told to be out in 12 months, they would figure out the best way of getting out in 12 months.

    To me it is a question of deciding on the best policy, and then having the very capable experts figure out the logistics of achieving that policy.



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