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  1. #16
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    WAC - Louisiana Tech (1)
    Bubble: None. Utah State is in free fall.

    Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State (1)


    WCC - Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's
    (3)
    Bubble: None


    SWAC - Southern University (1) - Lost their first game in conference.


    Summit - South Dakota State (1) - 3 teams fighting for the league title (NDSU, SDSU, and Western Illinois)


    Southern - Davidson (1)


    Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Lost their first conference game


    SEC - Missouri, Florida, Ole Miss (3)

    Bubble: Kentucky - Have already lost to Texas A&M and Alabama. Still have to play Missouri, Ole Miss, and Florida. Major risk of not making the tournament. Currently have no marquee wins.

    Patriot - Lehigh
    (1) - Won first head to head matchup with Bucknell and CJ MCcollum is still injured.
    Bubble: Bucknell


    Pac-12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
    (3)
    Bubble: ASU - Big win against UCLA. Don't think that gets them in just yet.


    Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, (4)
    Bubble: Boise State, Wyoming - Both teams have had some bad losses. You cannot afford to lose to teams like Nevada and Air Force when you have to play the 4 top teams in the MWC twice!

    Northeast - Bryant University (1) - A little slip up losing their first two conference games of the year.


    OVC - Belmont (1)
    Bubble - None. Murray State has lost too many games in the OVC to have any chance at an at large bid. Belmont though, if they were to lose their conference tournament would be an interesting question. #14 RPI, Top 30 SOS.

    MEAC - Norfolk State (1)


    Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
    (2)
    Bubble: Indiana State - They have played a tough schedule, but they need to win some big games. They play the top two MVC teams 3 more times. Need to win at least 2 of those games and win 5 out of 6 of the other games.


    MAAC - Loyola (MD) (1)


    MAC - Akron (1) - Neither team has lost a conference game yet. BIG game on February 2nd between the two.
    Bubble: Ohio

    Horizon - Valparaiso (1)
    Bubble: none. Wright State has too many conference losses.

    Ivy - Harvard (1) - Survived Dartmouth, to stay unbeaten in conference.


    CAA - Northeastern (1) - Still unbeaten in a very weak CAA this year.


    Conference USA - Memphis
    (1) - February 9th these two teams meet. Both don't have any marquee wins, so they must win their conference to get into the tourney.
    Bubble: Southern Mississippi


    Big Ten - Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota (lost 3 games straight), Illinois (Lost 4 of their last 6 games) - So Minnesota and Illinois are 2 interesting teams to watch down the stretch. (7)
    Bubble: Iowa - They have a decent team this year, but the Bg Ten is just too damn good.

    Big West: Long Beach State (1)

    Big Sky - Montana (1) - defeated Weber State head to head to gain sole control of the conference.
    Bubble: none

    Big South - Charleston Southern (1)


    Big East - Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
    (7)
    Bubble:
    Villanova, St. Johns - Villanova is surging right now. Will be a big unknown when it comes to the selection show.

    Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor
    (4)
    Bubble: Oklahoma, ISU - Good win against K-state, terrible loss against Tech. Both cancel each other out.


    Atlantic Sun - Mercer (1)


    ACC - Duke, North Carolina State, Miami
    (3)
    Bubble: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Maryland


    Atlantic 10 - Butler, VCU, La Salle
    (3) - La Salle has had an amazing week. Defeating both VCU and Butler back to back. Those wins bring them back into the tournament fold.
    Bubble: Temple, Saint Louis - Temple is barely hanging on with that Syracuse win, but they need to get more consistent. SLU seems to be righting the ship, just need to keep on winning.


    America East - Stony Brook (1)

    I have 60 teams currently IN. There are 17 teams on the bubble fighting for 8 spots.



  2. #17
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    Looks like a good read -- just saw it and may comment shortly.

    Here's mine -- only second week I've done seedings this season best I can do. Don't think I got around to posting it last Sunday. I may also post in a separate thread.

    1
    Kansas
    Duke
    Michigan
    Arizona


    2
    Florida
    Syracuse
    Miami Fla.
    Louisville


    3
    N.C. State
    Butler
    Gonzaga
    Indiana


    4
    New Mexico
    Michigan State
    Minnesota
    Cincinnati


    5
    Ohio State
    Oregon
    UNLV
    Missouri


    6
    Marquette
    Illinois
    Kansas State
    VCU


    7
    Wichita State
    San Diego State
    UCLA
    Creighton


    8
    Georgetown
    Wisconsin
    Notre Dame
    Oklahoma


    9
    Pittsburgh
    Mississippi
    Colorado
    Oklahoma State


    10
    North Carolina
    Colorado State
    Baylor
    Temple


    11
    Villanova
    Iowa State
    Belmont (OVC)
    Memphis


    12
    Southern Miss (C-USA)
    Kentucky/BYU
    Maryland/LaSalle
    Bucknell (PATRIOT)


    13
    Middle Tenn (SUN BELT)
    Louisiana Tech (WAC)
    Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)
    Valparaiso (HORIZON)

    14
    Harvard (IVY)
    Stony Brook (AM EAST)
    Akron (MAC)
    Long Beach St. (BIG WEST)

    15
    Western Illinois (SUMMIT)
    Northeastern (COLONIAL)
    Davidson (SOCON)
    Montana (BIG SKY)

    16
    Niagara (MAAC)
    Florida Gulf Coast (A-SUN)
    Charleston Southern (BIG SOUTH)/Bryant (NORTHEAST)
    Southern (SWAC)/Norfolk St. (MEAC)

    First four out: Wyoming, Indiana State, St. John's, St. Louis
    Next four out: Iowa, St. Mary's, Arizona State, Boise State



  3. #18
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    Good work. Can't find much to disagree with at this point.

    Good point that Belmont could get an at-large. I think it's one of the few teams from this year's "one-bid conferences" that could survive missing the at-large (C-USA w/ Memphis-So Miss; at the fringe are probably Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Middle Tennessee and SF Austin)



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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    All 12 BIG10 teams will be in... because it is the best conference in the nation by far



  5. #20
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    Good work. Can't find much to disagree with at this point.

    Good point that Belmont could get an at-large. I think it's one of the few teams from this year's "one-bid conferences" that could survive missing the at-large (C-USA w/ Memphis-So Miss; at the fringe are probably Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, Middle Tennessee and SF Austin)
    I thought Stephen F. Austin could do it if they remained unbeaten, but then they lost to Northwestern State. So I think the At Large bid for them has been closed and they have to win their conference tourney now. Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, and Bucknell would both have to win their conference tourney as well. Lehigh might have had a chance at an At Large bid, but they just lost to Lafayette.

    I like your seedings. I'm terrible at predicting seedings, especially for mid majors. Interesting that you have Louisville as a 2 over NC State and Indiana. I think Illinois will be a much lower seed than what you have, and I think Ohio State will have a better seed than Minnesota. The rest though looks pretty good!



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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    My try at bracketology:

    America East
    Auto bid: Stony Brook

    Atlantic 10
    Auto bid: Butler
    Should be in: VCU
    Work left to do: La Salle, Charlotte, Temple, UMass, Saint Louis

    ACC
    Auto bid: Miami(FL)
    Lock: Duke
    Should be in: NC State
    Work left to do: North Carolina, Maryland

    Atlantic Sun
    Auto bid: Florida Gulf Coast

    Big 12
    Auto bid: Kansas
    Work left to do: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma

    Big East
    Auto bid: Syracuse
    Lock: Louisville
    Should be in: Marquette, Cincinnati, Georgetown
    Work left to do: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova, St. John's

    Big Sky
    Auto bid: Montana

    Big South
    Auto bid: Charleston Southern

    Big Ten
    Auto bid: Michigan
    Locks: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
    Should be in: Minnesota, Wisconsin
    Work left to do: Illinois, Iowa

    Big West
    Auto bid: Long Beach State

    CAA
    Auto bid: Northeastern

    Conference USA
    Auto bid: Southern Miss
    Work left to do: Memphis

    Horizon League
    Auto bid: Valparaiso

    Ivy League
    Auto bid: Harvard

    MAAC
    Auto bid: Niagara

    MAC
    Auto bid: Akron

    MEAC
    Auto bid: North Carolina Central

    Missouri Valley
    Auto bid: Wichita State
    Should be in: Creighton

    Mountain West
    Auto bid: New Mexico
    Should be in: San Diego State, UNLV
    Work left to do: Colorado State, Boise State, Wyoming

    Northeast
    Auto bid: Bryant University

    OVC
    Auto bid: Belmont

    Pac-12
    Auto bid: Oregon
    Lock: Arizona
    Should be in: UCLA
    Work left to do: Arizona State, Colorado

    Patriot:
    Auto bid: Lehigh
    Work left to do: Bucknell

    SEC
    Auto bid: Florida
    Should be in: Missouri, Ole Miss
    Work left to do: Kentucky, Alabama

    Southern
    Auto bid: Davidson

    Southland
    Auto bid: Stephen F. Austin

    SWAC
    Auto bid: Southern

    Summit League
    Auto bid: South Dakota St.

    Sun Belt
    Auto bid: Middle Tennessee St.(Also at-large contender)

    WCC
    Auto bid: Gonzaga
    Work left to do: Saint Mary's, BYU

    WAC
    Auto bid: Louisiana Tech

    50 teams are either auto bids, locks or should be ins. That leaves 18 spots for 29 teams right now.


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  7. #22
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by Mumbai1986 View Post
    I thought Stephen F. Austin could do it if they remained unbeaten, but then they lost to Northwestern State. So I think the At Large bid for them has been closed and they have to win their conference tourney now. Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, and Bucknell would both have to win their conference tourney as well. Lehigh might have had a chance at an At Large bid, but they just lost to Lafayette.

    I like your seedings. I'm terrible at predicting seedings, especially for mid majors. Interesting that you have Louisville as a 2 over NC State and Indiana. I think Illinois will be a much lower seed than what you have, and I think Ohio State will have a better seed than Minnesota. The rest though looks pretty good!
    Hey, thanks! I think you make good arguments with those specific seedings.

    The raw RPI-SOS numbers are still buoying some teams a little, coupled with decent resumes -- that seems to be the case with teams like Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota — so I have those probably upside-down compared to "the experts.". If those two can't get it together they'll start dropping hard. Minnesota seems seeded too high, but seemed to be nearing the 2-range just a few weeks ago, so it's a slower dip.

    Re: SFA -- I have them on the "mid-major at-large short list" but as you said, it takes only one loss of almost any kind in those conferences to get in w/ out the auto bid. Two others that aren't far away are N.D. State and S.D. State – their resumes aren't much weaker than most bubble threats, but neither has much chance to make up any ground at this point (except against each other).



  8. #23
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    WAC - Louisiana Tech (1)

    Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee State (1)


    WCC - Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's
    (3)

    SWAC - Southern University (1)


    Summit - South Dakota State (1) - 3 teams fighting for the league title (NDSU, SDSU, and Western Illinois)


    Southern - Davidson (1)


    Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1)


    SEC - Missouri, Florida, Ole Miss, Kentucky (4)

    Bubble: Alabama

    Patriot - Bucknell
    (1)
    Bubble: Lehigh - Unexpected loss to Lafayette drops them to the bubble.

    Pac-12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
    (3)
    Bubble: ASU - Beat WSU, but then lose to Washington. Still on the bubble.


    Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, (4)
    Bubble: Boise State, Air Force - Air Force is on a tear. Won 5 games straight against very good opponents. Wyoming drops out with their conference record falling to 2-6.

    Northeast - Bryant University (1)


    OVC - Belmont (1)

    MEAC - Norfolk State (1)


    Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
    (2)
    Bubble: Indiana State - Big win at Wichita State, but then lose against Drake. Bubble, thy name is Indian State.


    MAAC - Niagara (1)


    MAC - Akron (1) - Beat Ohio in their first head to head matchup.
    Bubble: Ohio

    Horizon - Valparaiso (1)


    Ivy - Harvard (1) - Surviving in the Ivy, but barely.


    CAA - Northeastern (1) - Finally lost a conference game.


    Conference USA - Memphis
    (1) - February 9th these two teams meet. Both don't have any marquee wins, so they must win their conference to get into the tourney.
    Bubble: Southern Mississippi


    Big Ten - Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota (6)
    Bubble: Illinois - In free fall.

    Big West: Long Beach State (1)

    Big Sky - Montana (1)


    Big South - Charleston Southern (1)


    Big East - Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
    (7)
    Bubble:
    Villanova, St. Johns

    Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
    (3)
    Bubble: Oklahoma, ISU, Baylor

    Atlantic Sun - Mercer (1)


    ACC - Duke, North Carolina State, Miami
    (3)
    Bubble: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Maryland


    Atlantic 10 - Butler, VCU (2)

    Bubble: La Salle, Temple, Saint Louis, Charlotte - Saint Louis is charging ahead, La Salle took a step back, Temple is a conundrum.

    America East - Stony Brook (1)

    58 Locks. 22 Bubble teams for 10 spots.



  9. #24
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    Re: My crappy version of Bracketology

    WAC - Louisiana Tech (1)

    Sun Belt - Middle Tennessee (1)


    WCC - Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
    (2)
    Bubble - BYU - Losing to San Diego and then San Francisco puts them very much on the edge of the bubble. They cannot afford anymore bad losses.

    SWAC - Southern University (1)


    Summit - Western Illinois (1) - 3 teams fighting for the league title (NDSU, SDSU, and Western Illinois)


    Southern - Davidson (1)


    Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Big win against Oral Roberts. Though Northwestern State might be the sleeper that knocks them out in the conference tournament. If that happens, I don't think they have a good enough resume to get in the tourney as an At Large.


    SEC - Missouri, Florida, Ole Miss, Kentucky (4) - Kentucky seems to have righted the ship and are slowly becoming a dangerous team.


    Patriot - Bucknell
    (1)
    Bubble: Lehigh - Big matchup with Bucknell on February 18th.

    Pac-12 - Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
    (3)
    Bubble: ASU, Colorado, Stanford

    Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, (4)
    Bubble: Boise State - Beat Wyoming and Air Force lost 2 straight games to make Boise State the main bubble team left in the MWC.

    Northeast - Bryant University (1)


    OVC - Belmont (1) - Lost their first conference game to Murray State.

    MEAC - Norfolk State (1)


    Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State
    (2)
    Bubble: Indiana State - Big win at Creighton. Slowly becoming a lock.


    MAAC - Niagara (1)


    MAC - Akron (1) - Beat Ohio in their first head to head matchup.
    Bubble: Ohio

    Horizon - Valparaiso (1)


    Ivy - Harvard (1) - Surviving in the Ivy, but barely.


    CAA - Northeastern (1)


    Conference USA - Memphis
    (1) - Beat Southern Miss in the head to head matchup and Southern Miss has lost 2 straight to be out of the bubble conversation.

    Big Ten - Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota (6)
    Bubble: Illinois - BIG win against Indiana. Let's see if this turns the year around.

    Big West: Long Beach State (1)

    Big Sky - Montana (1)


    Big South - Charleston Southern (1)


    Big East - Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
    (7)
    Bubble:
    St. Johns,

    Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
    (3)
    Bubble: Oklahoma, ISU, Baylor - I think everyone is in, but just to be conservative, keeping all three on the bubble.

    Atlantic Sun - Mercer (1)


    ACC - Duke, North Carolina State, Miami
    (3)
    Bubble: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Maryland - Virginia loses to the worst team in the ACC, FSU loses to Wake Forest, Maryland loses to FSU and Virginia. The only team that looks safe on the bubble is UNC who was just decimated by Miami.


    Atlantic 10 - Butler, VCU, Saint Louis (3) - St. Louis has now won 6 straight and I believe are in lock status, though that can change quickly.

    Bubble: La Salle, Temple, Massachusets- All three teams are treading water. Temple and UMASS play each other on Feb 16, and La Salle plays Temple on Feb. 21. Those games will probably decide who stays on the bubble.

    America East - Stony Brook (1)

    58 Locks. 20 Bubble teams for 10 spots.



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