Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 35
  1. #1
    Pro
    Points: 59,675, Level: 75
    Level completed: 75%, Points required for next Level: 375
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    besserheimerphat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Mount Vernon, WA
    Posts
    2,559
    Points
    59,675
    Level
    75
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 74
    Given: 107

    Wide Receiver Data (LONG)

    2012 ISU Football Analysis: Receivers

    The play-by-play data from cfbstats.com - College Football Statistics was used to analyze the play of ISU's receivers and compare it to the average performance of all BCS receivers with an average of >=1 target per game (12 total targets in a 12 game season). All comparisons were made on a "per-target" basis; a target is defined as a pass attempt to a specific receiver. This allows comparisons to be made regardless of offensive scheme or pace.

    Note that only players with more than 12 targets on the season are included. This means that the given percentages may not add up to 100%, and the total number of targets will not be equal to the total number of passes. Also, some passes are not allocated to a receiver - i.e. passes intentionally thrown out of bounds, tipped balls, etc. This adds to the error of the analysis by inflating the ratios slightly. For this analysis it is assumed that this error balances out across all included players so that relative comparisons are still valid. Finally, while players may be referred to as receivers, this analysis includes ANY player who was thrown to at least 12 times during the season including runningbacks and tight ends.

    Total Targets / Target Rate:

    This is the number of passes thrown to each receiver, and the percentage of the total passes thrown to that receiver. The number on the chart indicates the number of passes. The BCS Avg is 8.3%.

    Aaron Horne - 64 targets, 14.9% target rate
    Chris Young - 62, 14.4%
    Josh Lenz - 44, 10.2%
    Jarvis West - 43, 10.0%
    Quenton Bundrage - 38, 8.8%
    BCS Avg - 8.3%
    Albert Gary - 34, 7.9%
    Ernst Brun - 30, 7.0%
    Jerome Tiller - 28, 6.5%
    James White - 24, 5.6%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 20, 4.7%

    Catch Rate:

    This is the percentage of passes to each player that he caught. The BCS Avg is 64.3%.

    James White - 75.0%
    Ernst Brun - 73.3%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 70.0%
    Jarvis West - 67.4%
    Josh Lenz - 65.9%
    BCS Avg - 64.3%
    Jerome Tiller - 60.7%
    Chris Young - 59.7%
    Aaron Horne - 59.4%
    Albert Gary - 52.9%
    Quenton Bundrage - 52.6%

    Yards per Target:

    This is the average number of yards gained each time the ball is thrown to each player. The BCS Avg is 7.59 Yards/Target.

    Josh Lenz - 9.77
    Ernst Brun - 7.60
    BCS Avg - 7.59
    Chris Young - 6.50
    Jarvis West - 6.47
    Quenton Bundrage - 6.11
    James White - 5.79
    Shontrelle Johnson - 5.75
    Aaron Horne - 5.70
    Jerome Tiller - 5.64
    Albert Gary - 5.00

    Inter-relationships Between The Metrics:

    It is intuitive that there is a relationship between the three statistics presented above. It would make sense that players who are thrown to the most, or who are thrown passes farther downfield, will have a lower catch rate. Those assumptions were examined using the data for all BCS players with at least 12 targets.

    The correlation coefficient between Target Rate and Catch Rate was -0.050. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.002. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is no relationship between Target Rate and Catch Rate. See the following chart. *The chart didn't copy, sorry. Imagine a blob of dots with a horizontal line going through it...

    The correlation coefficient between Yards per Target and Catch Rate was 0.309. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.095. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is a positive relationship between Catch Rate and Yards per Target - Catch Rate increases as Yards per Target increases. See the following chart. *Chart didn't copy. Blob of dots going roughly up and to the right.

    The correlation coefficient between Yards per Target and Target Rate was 0.267. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.071. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is a positive relationship between Target Rate and Yards per Target - Target Rate increases as Yards per Target increases. See the following chart. *Chart didn't copy. Blob of dots going roughly up and to the right.


    Additional Interesting Metrics:

    The Catch Rate numbers were also broken down by 1st Downs and TDs to further quantify the value each receiver brought to the team. The BCS Avg's for 1st Down Rate and TD Rate are 33.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

    1st Downs
    Jarvis West - 39.5%
    Josh Lenz - 34.1%
    BCS Avg - 33.5%
    Ernst Brun - 33.3%
    Aaron Horne - 32.8%
    Chris Young - 29.0%
    Albert Gary - 26.5%
    Jerome Tiller - 25.0%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 25.0%
    Quenton Bundrage - 23.7%
    James White - 16.7%

    TD Rate
    Ernst Brun - 16.7%
    Josh Lenz - 13.6%
    Jarvis West - 7.0%
    Albert Gary - 5.9%
    BCS Avg - 5.5%
    Quenton Bundrage - 5.3%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 5.0%
    Aaron Horne - 4.7%
    Jerome Tiller - 3.6%
    Chris Young - 3.2%
    James White - 0.0%

    Conclusions:

    Aaron Horne wasn't as bad as people thought. His catch rate was only slightly below the BCS average at 59.4%. That's including his awful zero catch performance against Baylor. Without that unusually bad night, his numbers aren't too bad. Had he turned two of those six drops into catches, his Catch Rate would have been right at the BCS average. Horne did do an adequate job turning his catches into 1st Downs and TDs at near average BCS rates.

    Josh Lenz's injury really hurt ISU. While his numbers on the year weren't great from an absolute sense, he played at a very high level when on the field. His catch rate of 65.9% was slightly above average, but his 9.77 Yards per Target put him in the top 20% of all BCS receivers. But wait, there's more. He also converted 34% of his catches for 1st Downs. And a whopping 13.6% of his catches were for TDs - that's in the top 5% for all BCS receivers. Lenz is possibly the most underappreciated wide receiver ISU has had in recent memory, primarily because his injuries have prevented him from having a single huge year. Hopefully he will have a chance to play in the NFL.

    Ernst Brun needs more touches. The only metric in which Brun isn't in ISU's top three is Target Rate. He caught the ball 73.3% of the time, averaged 7.6 yards each time he was targeted, turned 33.3% of his catches into 1st Downs, and scored on 16.7% of his catches. Only 13 players in the BCS this year recorded more TD/Catch than Brun.

    Jarvis West gets the important yards. He has turned 39.5% of his catches into 1st Downs this year, putting him in the top 30% of all BCS receivers. He has turned 7% of his catches into TD, in the top 40% of all BCS receivers.

    Catch Rate needs to improve. As a team, ISU's Completion Percentag was 58.6%. That's in the bottom 35% of the BCS (BCS Avg = 60.5%). Yards per Target needs to go up as well. As a team, ISU averaged 6.2 Yards per Attempt, also in the bottom 35% of the BCS (BCS Avg = 6.7 Yards per Attempt). The 1st Down Rate goes hand-in-hand with Yards per Target, and it shows. As a team, ISU only converted 21.4% of it's completions into 1st Downs (bottom 9% of the BCS, ouch). While this is not a surprise based on simply watching the games, it is sobering to see how poorly the performance has been relative to the rest of the BCS.

    One bright spot, however, is the overall TD Rate of 7.2%. That's in the top 30% of the BCS. This is due almost entirely to Ernst Brun and Josh Lenz, though Jarvis West has done a good job finding the endzone as well.


    Last edited by besserheimerphat; 12-21-2012 at 12:38 PM.
    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  2. #2
    Speechless
    Points: 395,257, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 100.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialOverdriveVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Wesley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Omaha
    Posts
    57,897
    Points
    395,257
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 415
    Given: 299

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    SR throws an easier pass to catch - more on target for receivers who are not Calvin Johnson. Numbers should be good for the bowl game.

    That said, we are the Home of the Dink Pass. The deep ball is not us. Cody Green for Tulsa is similar.


    Let my Fred's Posse Ride: Georges, Naz, Hogue, Bryce, Nader, Monte, Matt, and McKay.

  3. #3
    Prospect
    Points: 3,312, Level: 16
    Level completed: 66%, Points required for next Level: 138
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered1000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    74
    Points
    3,312
    Level
    16
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    2012 ISU Football Analysis: Receivers

    The play-by-play data from cfbstats.com - College Football Statistics was used to analyze the play of ISU's receivers and compare it to the average performance of all BCS receivers with an average of >=1 target per game (12 total targets in a 12 game season). All comparisons were made on a "per-target" basis; a target is defined as a pass attempt to a specific receiver. This allows comparisons to be made regardless of offensive scheme or pace.

    Note that only players with more than 12 targets on the season are included. This means that the given percentages may not add up to 100%, and the total number of targets will not be equal to the total number of passes. Also, some passes are not allocated to a receiver - i.e. passes intentionally thrown out of bounds, tipped balls, etc. This adds to the error of the analysis by inflating the ratios slightly. For this analysis it is assumed that this error balances out across all included players so that relative comparisons are still valid. Finally, while players may be referred to as receivers, this analysis includes ANY player who was thrown to at least 12 times during the season including runningbacks and tight ends.

    Total Targets / Target Rate:

    This is the number of passes thrown to each receiver, and the percentage of the total passes thrown to that receiver. The number on the chart indicates the number of passes. The BCS Avg is 8.3%.

    Aaron Horne - 64 targets, 14.9% target rate
    Chris Young - 62, 14.4%
    Josh Lenz - 44, 10.2%
    Jarvis West - 43, 10.0%
    Quenton Bundrage - 38, 8.8%
    BCS Avg - 8.3%
    Albert Gary - 34, 7.9%
    Ernst Brun - 30, 7.0%
    Jerome Tiller - 28, 6.5%
    James White - 24, 5.6%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 20, 4.7%

    Catch Rate:

    This is the percentage of passes to each player that he caught. The BCS Avg is 64.3%.

    James White - 75.0%
    Ernst Brun - 73.3%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 70.0%
    Jarvis West - 67.4%
    Josh Lenz - 65.9%
    BCS Avg - 64.3%
    Jerome Tiller - 60.7%
    Chris Young - 59.7%
    Aaron Horne - 59.4%
    Albert Gary - 52.9%
    Quenton Bundrage - 52.6%

    Yards per Target:

    This is the average number of yards gained each time the ball is thrown to each player. The BCS Avg is 7.59 Yards/Target.

    Josh Lenz - 9.77
    Ernst Brun - 7.60
    BCS Avg - 7.59
    Chris Young - 6.50
    Jarvis West - 6.47
    Quenton Bundrage - 6.11
    James White - 5.79
    Shontrelle Johnson - 5.75
    Aaron Horne - 5.70
    Jerome Tiller - 5.64
    Albert Gary - 5.00

    Inter-relationships Between The Metrics:

    It is intuitive that there is a relationship between the three statistics presented above. It would make sense that players who are thrown to the most, or who are thrown passes farther downfield, will have a lower catch rate. Those assumptions were examined using the data for all BCS players with at least 12 targets.

    The correlation coefficient between Target Rate and Catch Rate was -0.050. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.002. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is no relationship between Target Rate and Catch Rate. See the following chart. *The chart didn't copy, sorry. Imagine a blob of dots with a horizontal line going through it...

    The correlation coefficient between Yards per Target and Catch Rate was 0.309. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.095. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is a positive relationship between Catch Rate and Yards per Target - Catch Rate increases as Yards per Target increases. See the following chart. *Chart didn't copy. Blob of dots going roughly up and to the right.

    The correlation coefficient between Yards per Target and Target Rate was 0.267. Linear regression yeilded an R2 = 0.071. These results indicate that for all BCS players there is a positive relationship between Target Rate and Yards per Target - Target Rate increases as Yards per Target increases. See the following chart. *Chart didn't copy. Blob of dots going roughly up and to the right.


    Additional Interesting Metrics:

    The Catch Rate numbers were also broken down by 1st Downs and TDs to further quantify the value each receiver brought to the team. The BCS Avg's for 1st Down Rate and TD Rate are 33.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

    1st Downs
    Jarvis West - 39.5%
    Josh Lenz - 34.1%
    BCS Avg - 33.5%
    Ernst Brun - 33.3%
    Aaron Horne - 32.8%
    Chris Young - 29.0%
    Albert Gary - 26.5%
    Jerome Tiller - 25.0%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 25.0%
    Quenton Bundrage - 23.7%
    James White - 16.7%

    TD Rate
    Ernst Brun - 16.7%
    Josh Lenz - 13.6%
    Jarvis West - 7.0%
    Albert Gary - 5.9%
    BCS Avg - 5.5%
    Quenton Bundrage - 5.3%
    Shontrelle Johnson - 5.0%
    Aaron Horne - 4.7%
    Jerome Tiller - 3.6%
    Chris Young - 3.2%
    James White - 0.0%

    Conclusions:

    Aaron Horne wasn't as bad as people thought. His catch rate was only slightly below the BCS average at 59.4%. That's including his awful zero catch performance against Baylor. Without that unusually bad night, his numbers aren't too bad. Had he turned two of those six drops into catches, his Catch Rate would have been right at the BCS average. Horne did do an adequate job turning his catches into 1st Downs and TDs at near average BCS rates.

    Josh Lenz's injury really hurt ISU. While his numbers on the year weren't great from an absolute sense, he played at a very high level when on the field. His catch rate of 65.9% was slightly above average, but his 9.77 Yards per Target put him in the top 20% of all BCS receivers. But wait, there's more. He also converted 34% of his catches for 1st Downs. And a whopping 13.6% of his catches were for TDs - that's in the top 5% for all BCS receivers. Lenz is possibly the most underappreciated wide receiver ISU has had in recent memory, primarily because his injuries have prevented him from having a single huge year. Hopefully he will have a chance to play in the NFL.

    Ernst Brun needs more touches. The only metric in which Brun isn't in ISU's top three is Target Rate. He caught the ball 73.3% of the time, averaged 7.6 yards each time he was targeted, turned 33.3% of his catches into 1st Downs, and scored on 16.7% of his catches. Only 13 players in the BCS this year recorded more TD/Catch than Brun.

    Jarvis West gets the important yards. He has turned 39.5% of his catches into 1st Downs this year, putting him in the top 30% of all BCS receivers. He has turned 7% of his catches into TD, in the top 40% of all BCS receivers.

    Catch Rate needs to improve. As a team, ISU's Completion Percentag was 58.6%. That's in the bottom 35% of the BCS (BCS Avg = 60.5%). Yards per Target needs to go up as well. As a team, ISU averaged 6.2 Yards per Attempt, also in the bottom 35% of the BCS (BCS Avg = 6.7 Yards per Attempt). The 1st Down Rate goes hand-in-hand with Yards per Target, and it shows. As a team, ISU only converted 21.4% of it's completions into 1st Downs (bottom 9% of the BCS, ouch). While this is not a surprise based on simply watching the games, it is sobering to see how poorly the performance has been relative to the rest of the BCS.

    One bright spot, however, is the overall TD Rate of 7.2%. That's in the top 30% of the BCS. This is due almost entirely to Ernst Brun and Josh Lenz, though Jarvis West has done a good job finding the endzone as well.
    Ok.



  4. #4
    KFitzy87
    Guest

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUbaseball View Post
    Ok.
    GTFO troll



  5. #5
    Prospect
    Points: 3,312, Level: 16
    Level completed: 66%, Points required for next Level: 138
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered1000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    74
    Points
    3,312
    Level
    16
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by KFitzy87 View Post
    GTFO troll
    Ok.



  6. #6
    KFitzy87
    Guest

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUbaseball View Post
    Ok.
    GTFO troll



  7. #7
    Legend
    Points: 426,332, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 30.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsOverdriveVeteran
    State43's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    10,722
    Points
    426,332
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 181
    Given: 153

    Re: Wide Receiver Data (LONG)

    Wow, put in a ton of work here. Thanks for sharing



  8. #8
    Prospect
    Points: 3,312, Level: 16
    Level completed: 66%, Points required for next Level: 138
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered1000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    74
    Points
    3,312
    Level
    16
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by KFitzy87 View Post
    GTFO troll
    Ok?



  9. #9
    KFitzy87
    Guest

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUbaseball View Post
    Ok?
    The OP goes through an extensive and interesting investigation of stats relating to ISU football and you come into the thread to respond Ok. ???

    Yeah. GTFO troll.



  10. #10
    Speechless
    Points: 559,809, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsOverdriveVeteranRecommendation Second Class
    ISUAgronomist's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Back in Iowa!!!!!!!!
    Posts
    21,304
    Points
    559,809
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 170
    Given: 93

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by KFitzy87 View Post
    The OP goes through an extensive and interesting investigation of stats relating to ISU football and you come into the thread to respond Ok. ???

    Yeah. GTFO troll.
    If I've learned anything recently you should follow up with #BeWell

    So, your post should end with: GTFO troll #BeWell




  11. #11
    Addict
    Points: 161,248, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second Class50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    GMackey32's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Ames Via Cedar Falls
    Posts
    5,010
    Points
    161,248
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 78
    Given: 42

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUAgronomist View Post
    If I've learned anything recently you should follow up with #BeWell

    So, your post should end with: GTFO troll #BeWell
    Royce, stop posting on CF and get back to the team!


    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisMWilliams View Post
    I agree. We didn't choose Iowa State because it is easy. We chose Iowa State because it is awesome.
    Post from HawkeyeNation:

    So frickin jealous of what they have in Ames. It's truly amazing what Fred has done coming in with 0 coaching experience.

  12. #12
    Prospect
    Points: 3,312, Level: 16
    Level completed: 66%, Points required for next Level: 138
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    1 year registered1000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    74
    Points
    3,312
    Level
    16
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by KFitzy87 View Post
    The OP goes through an extensive and interesting investigation of stats relating to ISU football and you come into the thread to respond Ok. ???

    Yeah. GTFO troll.
    Didn't realize you we're the almighty Internet tough guy in charge of labeling other fans. I guess my response to you would be...okfitzy



  13. #13
    Speechless
    Points: 559,809, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    Social50000 Experience PointsOverdriveVeteranRecommendation Second Class
    ISUAgronomist's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Back in Iowa!!!!!!!!
    Posts
    21,304
    Points
    559,809
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 170
    Given: 93

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by GMackey32 View Post
    Royce, stop posting on CF and get back to the team!
    #BeWell




  14. #14
    KFitzy87
    Guest

    Re: Wide Receiver Data

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUbaseball View Post
    Didn't realize you we're the almighty Internet tough guy in charge of labeling other fans. I guess my response to you would be...okfitzy
    A real fan would appreciate what the OP had to offer and wouldn't quote the entire post just to say "Ok."

    It comes off very badly for you. Care to explain your reasoning behind your original "Ok."? Was it to be funny?



  15. #15
    Pro
    Points: 53,035, Level: 71
    Level completed: 33%, Points required for next Level: 1,015
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    Ry4Cy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    3,152
    Points
    53,035
    Level
    71
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 6
    Given: 3

    Re: Wide Receiver Data (LONG)

    Guys go easy on isubaseball. Saying something more intelligent than ok is tough for a knuckle dragging hok fan.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • TV: Fox Sports 1
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM