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  1. #16
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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    12-6.

    Anything less requires conference tournament wins and count on a team such as Baylor, WVA, OSU to steal our bid with a run to the conference semis or finals with their superior NC schedule and better conference tournament play.

    I would say you can count on 3 Big 12 bids but who knows anything from 2-6 is possible. The PAC 12 last year didn't get many bids and a pretty good Arizona team with plenty of SOS/RPI got sent to the NIT.

    11-7 with no wins over KU will not be enough the team will finish with 11 losses if they don't win the conference tournament and will have no signature wins.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBake View Post
    Get over the preseason weight. We finish top 4 or 5 in conf and we're dancing.
    Not so fast. I will be surprised if more than three B12 teams will be worthy. There are some bad losses out there.


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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    Not so fast. I will be surprised if more than three B12 teams will be worthy. There are some bad losses out there.

    I would be, been a long time since the Big 12 sent less than 5 teams.


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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBake View Post
    I would be, been a long time since the Big 12 sent less than 5 teams.
    Well, I am here to tell you nine of the ten teams are very beatable at this point.


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
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  5. #20
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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by kucyclone View Post
    We didn't beat anybody in the non-con last year, just like this year. Last year, we went 12-6 in conference, with three wins over top 10 teams in the country, and still got stuck in the 8/9 game. I don't think people realize how much having 6 games against Baylor/Mizzou/Kansas helped last season. So I'm not even sure we're safe at 11-7 this season, if those 11 are something along the lines of TCU/@TCU/TTU/@TTU/UT/@UT/WVU/OU/OSU/BU/KSU, because that's a pretty empty 11-7 with this conference, this season.
    You're on the right track, as far as "empty wins."

    I haven't assessed remainder of other Big 12 non-conference at this point, but it looks like nearly all the projected upper-division teams won't exceed expectations. So it's possible there will be fewer chances to snag the biggies like last season.

    Precise record isn't important, but the way it's looking:

    Assuming ISU manages to go 10-3 in non-conference, BYU ends up as a good win and the losses are "quality losses" or at least non-detrimental, we probably need:

    Category 1: Split with KU, OSU, OU, BU, KSU
    Category 2: Sweep at least WVU or UT
    Category 3: Sweep TCU and Tech

    Could trade sweep-for-sweep within category 1.

    That would be 12-6 ... probably safe around that range.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    Not so fast. I will be surprised if more than three B12 teams will be worthy. There are some bad losses out there.
    Certainly possible at this point.

    I expected a lot of balance in B12 this season, with potential for 7 bids, but also not a lot of top-3 tournament seeds. Nobody is setting the world on fire vs. high-caliber opponents in non-league yet.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    The Big 12 is baaaaaaaaad this year. 11-7 minimum.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    If ISU does what it should do, they'll be 10-3 entering conference play.

    I think the Cyclones will need at least 11 wins total to make it into the dance - one of those could come from the conference tourney, but 10-8 has to be the minimum mark to even have a shot at thinking about it in this year's Big 12.

    If we drop one of the last four non-cons (or worse), that number hops up. 20 regular season wins + at least 1 in K.C. might be the floor. I'm not sure if 21-12 will be good enough even... Might need 22 wins total.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    I don't think just 20 wins is going to get it done in a weak Big 12. Might need 22 with as poor of a non-conference streak the league has had. Conference RPI is going to be low ------> fewer bids.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Looking a little closer (again, assuming 10-3 non-conference).

    It's possible ISU could go 7-2 in the first half of Big 12 schedule.

    Most likely path to that, based on what we can tell so far:

    Losses: @KU, @OSU
    Wins: Texas, West Virginia, @TCU, @Tech, Kansas State, Baylor, OU

    17-5 (7-2) — Record is in a promising zone, based on what we've seen, but still might include only one quality win. At best, that type of resume would be heavy on "quality losses."



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    21-0 will get ISU in, guaranteed.

    Bank it.


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  12. #27
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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Quote Originally Posted by acgclone View Post
    I would say 10 + one i the B12 tourney will get it done assuming we win out the rest of our OOC which is not guaranteed.
    that is not going to get it. The RPI will be to low. Unlike last year, the Big 12 is weak. Last year when we lost in the Big 12 it went down as a quality loss. We will have fewer opportunities for big wins. I think we need 11-7 and a Big 12 tournament win.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    Big 12 will struggle to get five this year unless the bottom half is so bad it skews the records. I agree that 11 is the number.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    With as weak as the Big 12 is we are going to have to get at least 15 wins in conference to be considered. Wish we were in a good conference.



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    Re: What's our Big 12 record going to have to be to make NCAA Tourney?

    It just comes down to which Big 12 teams come together from their mediocre starts. We're as likely as the other teams in the 3-7 range to put it together, and we're as likely not to.
    Certainly, 11 wins is a minimum.


    Since we are an elite team now, let's go get that One Cyclone Moment.
    Make this one for the ages!




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