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    Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Oklahom
    Oklahoma appears headed for a BCS at-large bid, most likely a trip to the Sugar Bowl. While it hasn't been a perfect season in Norman, the Sooners have a 9-2 record with losses to Kansas State and Notre Dame, two top-10 teams. They blew out Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Moreover, they will survive the Big 12 with a single conference loss if they can beat TCU on Saturday. There are four at-large slots available for teams that did not win their conference, and OU will line up fourth behind Notre Dame, Florida and Oregon should Kansas St. win the Big 12 on Saturday with a win over Texas.
    But Oklahoma could lose its BCS bid to Kent State.
    The BCS makes it possible for a team from a non-automatic qualifying conference to make a BCS bowl under a few special conditions. First, that team must finish in the top 16 of the BCS standings. Second, it must finish ahead of the champion of an AQ conference. The 11-1 Golden Flashes are currently No. 17 in the BCS standings and ranked ahead of every Big East team. However, Kent State also lost 47-14 to a Kentucky team that didn't win a single SEC game. How can it be in a position for a BCS berth?
    Part of the answer lies in the problematic computer polls, and most of the issues are well known. To begin with, five of the six computers do not reveal the details necessary to reproduce their results. Millions of BCS dollars are at the mercy of five black-box algorithms. Second, the BCS forbids the computers from using margin of victory in their calculations. It doesn't matter that a 33-point loss to Kentucky says something much different about a team than a one-point loss to a top-10 opponent. In the name of sportsmanship, the BCS will not give teams the incentive to run up the score.
    At the very least, you'd think the BCS computers could factor in the results of each game. For example, they could take into consideration which team handed Kent State its lone loss. Losing to 2-10 Kentucky would presumably hurt the Flashes' ranking. If they had lost to 9-2 Rutgers instead, the computer poll could assign Kent State a different, and presumably higher, ranking.
    However, the Colley Matrix, the one fully transparent computer poll, does not use this game-specific information. The system considers a team's win-loss record and strength of schedule; yet, the results of each individual game are not counted as an input. The method doesn't care whether Kent State's loss came against Kentucky or against Rutgers.
    It doesn't require an advanced math degree to verify this. Wesley Colley, the creator of the ranking method, has set up a web page where you can alter the results of games and see how the rankings change. If Kent State loses to Rutgers (25th in Colley's rankings) but beats Kentucky (98th), common sense indicates its rank should improve. However, the Flashes actually drop one place. In this scenario, Rutgers has a 10-1 record instead of a 9-2 mark and therefore moves ahead of Kent State.
    With the help of a computer poll that ignores who a team loses to, Kent State is on the brink of knocking Oklahoma out of a BCS bowl. If it beats Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, it could move up far enough in both the human and computer polls to end up No. 16 or higher in the final BCS standings. In the process, Kent State would redirect millions of dollars from the Big 12 to the MAC.
    It makes two things very clear: Sooners' fans should be cheering hard for Northern Illinois on Friday. And the rest of the MAC should be cheering hard for Kent State.
    Read More: Kent State could sneak into BCS bowl with help of computers - NCAA Football - SI.com


    Last edited by cigaretteman; 11-29-2012 at 09:10 AM.

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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Can someone explain to me how the hell Kent State is even ranked? Their loss was a blow out to 2-10 Kentucky.

    Makes zero sense.


    @RandomGeoFacts

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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    fyi, #17 Kent St is playing #21 N Ill, its possible whoever wins could move up the rankings to #16 or higher... The Big XII folks better lower the rankings of both of these teams.... to preserve OU's BCS status.... We need the above referenced game to be played badly so other conference teams follow our leagues desire to downgrade the winners ranking...



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl




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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    so our 2007 loss could possibly be to BCS top 15 Kent State

    NOT AS BAD AS I THOUGHT IT WAS.....




    Self proclaimed 2012 CF Newcomer of the Year

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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    So glad there will only be two years of this garbage.


    In 1984, I was hospitalized for approaching perfection.

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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Won't they replace the Big East team instead of ousting OU?

    This system is so dumb when 99% of fans can't figure it out.



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by cycloneworld View Post
    Won't they replace the Big East team instead of ousting OU?

    This system is so dumb when 99% of fans can't figure it out.
    Nope. It's a rule.

    http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/general-college-sports/161599-no-17-kent-state-1-spot-away-auto-bid.html

    Big East is in. No matter what.

    Automatic qualification

    1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings shall play in the National Championship Game.
    2. The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls through the 2013 regular season.
    3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
    A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
    B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.




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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Yep. The Big 12 could lose out on a bunch of money. Of course ISU might get a better bowl as a result. Many are talking about Music City which would be a unique bowl since that does not have a Big 12 affiliation traditionally. IMO, ISU is really in a decent position in this whole ordeal. Sooners could definitely get boned.



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Northern Illinois has won 11 straight after losing a close game to Iowa. I think they will roll Kent state.



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by mj4cy View Post
    Can someone explain to me how the hell Kent State is even ranked? Their loss was a blow out to 2-10 Kentucky.

    Makes zero sense.
    Because of flaws in the system, all related to human error.

    The human polls are ridiculous and very often at the end of the year you'll see human voters throw a bone to teams that won a decent amount of games but had a ridiculously easy SOS to end the year.

    Many of the computer polls have a hard time when there isnt a whole lot of good data either. Beating a whole bunch of nobody teams doesnt give much to go on by itself. One of the biggest factors is that MOV isnt allowed to be included in the BCS standings. So unlike say... boise state which would drop 50 on a lot of these no name teams, Kent State gets just as much credit for beating them all by narrower margins. Of the ratings that publish both their BCS ratings (without MOV) and their own ratings that include MOV, there is a massive spread between the two ratings as it relates to Kent State. So in this case its not the computers getting it wrong, its human interference preventing the computers from displaying an accurate read!

    Yet when it is all said and done, who are the media going to blame? Theyre going to blame the 'convoluted BCS formula' for giving us the travesty of a game they'll be involved in. Never mind that it will be 2/3 determined by poor-performing human voters, and 1/3 by altered computer polls that aren't being allowed to fully analyze the data.


    Last edited by alarson; 11-29-2012 at 10:27 AM.

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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPeske View Post
    fyi, #17 Kent St is playing #21 N Ill, its possible whoever wins could move up the rankings to #16 or higher... The Big XII folks better lower the rankings of both of these teams.... to preserve OU's BCS status.... We need the above referenced game to be played badly so other conference teams follow our leagues desire to downgrade the winners ranking...
    SEC teams will probably vote them higher just to balance it out. We know Pinkel isn't above voting someone where they don't belong (OSU last year)




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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by mj4cy View Post
    Can someone explain to me how the hell Kent State is even ranked? Their loss was a blow out to 2-10 Kentucky.

    Makes zero sense.
    They also beat Rutgers who has had a pretty good season. Computers and voters will ignore one bad loss, especially if that is the only loss. I don't think they should be ranking in the top 20 and I really don't think they should go to a BCS game, but if you go 11-1 in FBS with a win over a ranked BCS team, you should be ranked.

    Either way, Northern Illinois is going to beat them tomorrow so no worries.



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    with niu winning texas needs to win to shut the door on any mid major hopes



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    Re: Kent State Could Keep OU from BCS Bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by bowlfan912 View Post
    with niu winning texas needs to win to shut the door on any mid major hopes
    NIU would have to jump Boise State (@ Nevada), Michigan (Bye), Texas (@ #6 KState), Kent State (Lost to NIU) and UCLA (Lost vs #8 Stanford)

    NIU is currently tied with Kent State in the Human Polls, (18 & 19 vs 19 & 18), but is 5 spots behind Kent State in the computer polls, I assume those will even out and that NIU will jump in the human polls to around 15... Meanwhile Michigan is 23 & 24 in the human polls but 15 in the computer polls, With Michigan not playing I assume they will not move much in the computer polls, but may jump Kent State and/or Texas in the Human polls. Texas is 20 & 21 in the human polls and a loss my drop them into ~25 in the human polls, but will probably not drastically affect their computer rankings.

    If matches hold up I don't see NIU making it into the top 16... However, if Oregon State loses to Nicholls St, FSU loses to Georgia Tech, or Nebraska loses to Wisconsin, they could fall below NIU, and NIU could make the top 16. It is a less likely possibility, and a much better situation than if Kent State would have won that game.


    Last edited by Jordanj6502; 12-01-2012 at 01:23 AM.

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