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  1. #46
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Looks like the poll is getting better - the final scores in most of the games were actually reasonably close to the predictions. 4 for 5 on picking winners, with Texas's win over Tech preventing a perfect week.



  2. #47
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Updated Power Rankings:
    Code:
    +-----+----------------+
    |     | Power Ranking  |
    +-----+----------------+
    | 1.  | Oklahoma       |
    | 2.  | Kansas State   |
    | 3.  | Oklahoma State |
    | 4.  | Texas Tech     |
    | 5.  | Texas          |
    | 6.  | Iowa State     |
    | 7.  | TCU            |
    | 8.  | Baylor         |
    | 9.  | West Virginia  |
    | 10. | Kansas         |
    +-----+----------------+
    The algorithm still doesn't think K-State is better than Oklahoma. And is suspicious of the Texas win over Tech.



  3. #48
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Updated Projected Finish:
    Code:
    +----------------+---+---+
    |                | W | L |
    +----------------+---+---+
    | Kansas State   | 9 | 0 |
    | Oklahoma       | 8 | 1 |
    | Texas          | 7 | 2 |
    | Oklahoma State | 6 | 3 |
    | Texas Tech     | 5 | 4 |
    | Iowa State     | 4 | 5 |
    | TCU            | 3 | 6 |
    | West Virginia  | 2 | 7 |
    | Baylor         | 1 | 8 |
    | Kansas         | 0 | 9 |
    +----------------+---+---+



  4. #49
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    This week's Games:
    Code:
    +------------+----+
    | Iowa State | 28 |
    +------------+----+
    | Texas      | 29 |
    +------------+----+
    Projects a very close win for Texas. Thinks this will be the "Game of the Week" in the Big XII.

    Code:
    +------------+----+
    |   Kansas   | 15 |
    +------------+----+
    | Texas Tech | 37 |
    +------------+----+
    Tech in a walk.

    Code:
    +----------+----+
    |  Baylor  | 25 |
    +----------+----+
    | Oklahoma | 56 |
    +----------+----+
    Oklahoma with a blowout.

    Code:
    +----------------+----+
    | Oklahoma State | 57 |
    +----------------+----+
    | West Virginia  | 27 |
    +----------------+----+
    Okie State with a blowout.

    Code:
    +--------------+----+
    | Kansas State | 36 |
    +--------------+----+
    | TCU          | 19 |
    +--------------+----+
    K-State with a solid win.



  5. #50
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    The three games that the model thinks should have gone the other way are:
    -WVU over Baylor
    -K-State over Oklahoma
    -Texas over Texas Tech

    All the other games went as the algorithm thinks they should.



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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    The three games that the model thinks should have gone the other way are:
    -WVU over Baylor
    -K-State over Oklahoma
    -Texas over Texas Tech

    All the other games went as the algorithm thinks they should.
    looks like someone needs to start gambling hard with their computer model!



  7. #52
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    As an aside, if you look only at performances in conference games, rather than all games against FBS opponents, the algorithm predicts a 32-30 ISU win on Saturday.



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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    [Judoka if it finished like this and OU wins out I think we would be in line for the Holiday Bowl! Need to cheer for TCU and W Va need to finish 6-6 and of course OU and KSU to be in the BCS



  9. #54
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Some notes:

    -Texas tends to score about 1/3 more than their opponents usually give up
    -Texas tends to rush for about 10% more yards than their opponents usually give up
    -Texas tends to pass for about exactly as many yards as their opponents usually give up

    -Opponents of Texas tend to score exactly the number of points they normally do
    -Opponents of Texas tend to rushing for about 1/3 more yards than they normally do
    -Opponents of Texas tend to pass for only 80% of the yards they normally do

    -Iowa State tends to score a field goal less than their opponents usually give up
    -Iowa State tends to rush for about 80% of what their opponents usually give up
    -Iowa State tends to pass for about 90% of what their opponents usually give up

    -Opponents of Iowa State tend to score only 2/3 of the points they normally score
    -Opponents of Iowa State tend to rush for about 85% of the yards they normally gain
    -Opponents of Iowa State tend to pass for just a little over their average

    Given this I think the key to the game on Saturday will be the running game. If we can get that going I see no reason we can't win this one. Every single Big XII team that Texas has played rushed for above their season average against Texas.



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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    Quote Originally Posted by stevefrench View Post
    looks like someone needs to start gambling hard with their computer model!
    Only if it's still that good against the spread!

    Anyway, here's my rankings:

    1. KSU (4)
    2. OKLAHOMA (10)
    3. TTU (22)
    4. TEXAS (28)
    5. OSU (29)
    6. TCU (43)
    7. WVU (45)
    8. ISU (54)
    9. BAYLOR (64)
    10. KANSAS (112)

    Kentucky and Colorado are the only other BCS conference teams worse than Kansas. ISU should kill Kansas and has a real good chance against WVU, and a decent chance against Texas.

    Conference Rankings
    1 BIG 12
    2 SEC
    3 BIG 10
    4 IND
    5 PAC 12
    6 BIG EAST
    7 ACC
    8 MAC
    9 SUN BELT
    10 WAC
    11 MWC
    12 CUSA



  11. #56
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    I'm surprised to see your poll has the Big 10 higher than the Pac-12. Any thoughts on what is causing that? The Pac-12 has a few dogs (Colorado) but also some very good teams. The Big 10 has a few decent teams but a whole lot of bad teams.



  12. #57
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    That's a good question, so I went to look. It's pretty much Wazzu and Colorado dragging the whole conference down. Actually, it's mostly Colorado. Here's the rankings for just the Big 10 and PAC 12 teams. The points on the side are the total scores for each team based on my formula. CU is really really bad. The average score for the Big 10 is 8.436, the PAC 12 is 8.104. I removed CU and the PAC 12 average jumped to 8.812.

    NAME CONFERENCE Final Score
    Oregon PAC12 14.800
    Ohio St. BIG10 13.461
    Nebraska BIG10 12.067
    Oregon St. PAC12 11.868
    Stanford PAC12 11.054
    UCLA PAC12 11.044
    Northwestern BIG10 10.323
    Michigan BIG10 10.006
    Penn St. BIG10 9.949
    Southern California PAC12 9.386
    Wisconsin BIG10 9.382
    Arizona PAC12 8.732
    Arizona St. PAC12 8.448
    Michigan St. BIG10 7.939
    Washington PAC12 7.675
    Minnesota BIG10 7.253
    Utah PAC12 6.567
    Indiana BIG10 6.537
    Iowa BIG10 6.244
    Purdue BIG10 5.139
    California PAC12 4.620
    Illinois BIG10 2.933
    Washington St. PAC12 2.737
    Colorado PAC12 0.315



  13. #58
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    The model remains very good at picking winners and very bad at picking scores. 5 for 5 this week for winners, not very close on most of the scores.



  14. #59
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    It also finally agrees that K-State is better than Oklahoma.



  15. #60
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    Re: My very own computer poll for the Big XII

    New Power Rankings for the week

    Code:
    +-----+----------------+
    |     | Power Ranking  |
    +-----+----------------+
    | 1.  | Kansas State   |
    | 2.  | Oklahoma       |
    | 3.  | Oklahoma State |
    | 4.  | Texas          |
    | 5.  | Texas Tech     |
    | 6.  | TCU            |
    | 7.  | Baylor         |
    | 8.  | Iowa State     |
    | 9.  | West Virginia  |
    | 10. | Kansas         |
    +-----+----------------+



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