The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33
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    The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    I ran the numbers for both how Baylor performs relative to their opponent averages and how ISU performs relative to their opponent averages. I limited it to Big XII games only (though opponent averages include all games because calculating that on my own would have been way too much work). Here's what I came up with.

    First let's look at Baylor and Iowa State's own averages (again, for all games):

    Baylor Offense Scoring 48
    Rushing Yards 184
    Passing Yards 391
    Total Yards 574
    Defense Scoring 44
    Rushing Yards 197
    Passing Yards 356
    Total Yards 533
    Iowa State Offense Scoring 24
    Rushing Yards 137
    Passing Yards 206
    Total Yards 343
    Defense Scoring 20
    Rushing Yards 138
    Passing Yards 245
    Total Yards 383


    Now let's consider now Baylor's Big XII Opponents have fared against Baylor relative to their own average performance:
    Opponent Offense Scoring +18
    Rushing Yards +44
    Passing Yards +103
    Total Yards +147
    Opponent
    Defense
    Scoring +13
    Rushing Yards +13
    Passing Yards +140
    Total Yards +153

    So if you plug in ISU's average to how Baylor's Big XII opponent's have fared against Baylor relative to their overall average the game will look like this:

    Iowa State Scoring 42
    Rushing Yards 181
    Passing Yards 309
    Total Yards 490
    Baylor Scoring 33
    Rushing Yards 151
    Passing Yards 385
    Total Yards 536

    A 44-33 Iowa State Cyclones victory!

    Looking instead at Iowa State's numbers:

    Opponent Offense Scoring -16
    Rushing Yards -56
    Passing Yards 10
    Total Yards -47
    Opponent Defense Scoring 0
    Rushing Yards 2
    Passing Yards -22
    Total Yards -20

    Plugging in Baylor's average compared to how ISU's Big XII opponent's have fared against ISU relative to their overall average the game will look like this:

    Iowa State Scoring 44
    Rushing Yards 194
    Passing Yards 334
    Total Yards 528
    Baylor Scoring 32
    Rushing Yards 128
    Passing Yards 401
    Total Yards 529



    Slice it one way we win by 11, slice it another we win by 12. Either way we walk out of Jack Trice on Saturday with a double digit win.


    Last edited by Judoka; 10-22-2012 at 07:54 PM.

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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    I really don't see our defense scoring that many points.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by terryleebr View Post
    I really don't see our defense scoring that many points.
    With the Baylor defense they won't need to.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    I'm amazed how similar two different ways of approaching the prediction in up, both in points and yardage. That makes me feel much better about this analysis.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    I hope you are right - we need this win!!!



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    With the Baylor defense they won't need to.
    I'm to assume the Baylor defenders are going to take the ball from Jantz or Barnett's hand and make the throws to wide open Iowa State receivers FOR THEM?



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by Erik4Cy View Post
    I'm to assume the Baylor defenders are going to take the ball from Jantz or Barnett's hand and make the throws to wide open Iowa State receivers FOR THEM?
    Baylor's Big XII opponents have averaged 100+ yards over their season average (including FCS and non-BCS games) when playing Baylor. We'll be able to pass. Our QB, whoever it is, will have time to think and check down.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Any way to run this for some of the other games already played and see how close this model is?


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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by cloneteach View Post
    Any way to run this for some of the other games already played and see how close this model is?
    Depending on how bored I get tomorrow. I manually compiled the stats for this one. I know it won't be perfect - the averages are based off of only a handful of games. But I like to think it's a good start and I was hoping it would take the edge off of some of the doom and gloom around here.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    Baylor's Big XII opponents have averaged 100+ yards over their season average (including FCS and non-BCS games) when playing Baylor. We'll be able to pass. Our QB, whoever it is, will have time to think and check down.
    You are going to be in for a let down Saturday from ISU's offense. Sorry pal. Just because everyone else scores big on Baylor, doesn't mean ISU will.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by xboxfever View Post
    You are going to be in for a let down Saturday from ISU's offense. Sorry pal. Just because everyone else scores big on Baylor, doesn't mean ISU will.
    Tulsa is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 38 on them.
    TCU is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 37 on them.
    K-State is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 21 on them.

    We aren't setting the world on fire but the season isn't a loss because we are 4-3.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    Tulsa is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 38 on them.
    TCU is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 37 on them.
    K-State is a much better defensive team than Baylor. We put 21 on them.

    We aren't setting the world on fire but the season isn't a loss because we are 4-3.
    And the offense has steadily gotten worse as far as execution, play calling, and confidence with each game. Statistically Oklahoma State is worse than TCU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech defensively and they only scored 10 on them. Your stats are irrelevant. Stats aren't everything.



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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    You could have something here. Lets be honest, we have been inconsistent over the past 4 years, but we have shown glimpses of brilliance too. 3 weeks in a row of bad play on offense is possible, but not likely. I think we get it figured out this week before we start dropping the ball again.


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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    I do not know about that. We are the #106 offense in America BCS football. Tee it up.


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    Re: The stat's predict ISU will win 43-33

    Multiply scores by .75 to account for wind and weather in JTS and 32.25-24.75 seems attainable.



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