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  1. #1
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    Charting the QBs

    So, what if I told you it wasn't all that bad? Here's the numbers.

    Barnett threw the ball 38 times. I'm not counting the option play. Of those 38:

    Dead On-21
    Catchable-4
    Not Catchable-12
    Batted-1

    He made 6 bad decisions, one was picked and one should have been. The rest were usually because he had better options. As far as pressure, he was pressured six times. Out of those he made just one bad decision which was the ball that was dropped by OSU in the redzone. So, his best case before accounting for receivers was 25/38, worst case 21/38. That's not all that bad. Young and Brun both dropped a DO in HUGE moments and Young, Tiller and Johnson missed out on CAs which I don't really blame anyone for but they could have been caught. CA=Two hand touch the ball.

    Jantz

    DO-6
    CA-1
    NC-2

    Pressured twice no bad decisions. I don't think this tells us much. I did count the throw to Bundrage as a CA but not a drop. It would have been pretty tough to catch but Steele put it where only ISU could get it.

    So then, that's not all that bad. As I watched it again I do feel better. In fact I feel significantly better. Ten points is awful and there is no argument. Earlier I watched Jeff Woody tell us how close they are in his post game presser. I wanted to yell at him, "YOU HAVE GOT TO BE ******* KIDDING ME." He may be right. Look at these plays:

    Brun drops a decently thrown ball on the numbers as it bounces of his chest
    Young drops 3rd and 15 ball
    Johnson fumbles after a solid run.
    False starts

    Here's my opinion: It won't matter who plays QB. I think Jantz had a bad game against TT that may or may not happen again. Barnett had a bad game against KSU that may or may not happen again. I don't think the Oline in pass protection is all that awful. That metric that I charted was based of pressure with no regard for blitzes. They really weren't that awful there. The receivers need to do better. Today, our offense didn't make a ton of one mistake. The problem was we would be kind of moving and then we'd drop a first down pass, miss one block, fumble, throw one bad pass. If you go back and watch, Barnett was actually relatively good as far as accuracy. He wasn't great, but he was good. I just don't feel all that bad about the passing game but we have to quit making crippling mistake and start making more plays on balls like the one Tiller laid out for. Like I said, it was just a hodge podge of mistakes that killed us at times.

    I don't know about Steele. He looked good I guess. His only badly thrown ball was to Nealy and he was going to get smacked anyway. Woody dropped on for him and so did Nealy. It really doesn't mean anything. WHoever practices better this week will get the spot and if those guys don't step up I could see Richardson getting a shot for the hell of it but that's a long shot. I think the coaches will look at the tape and see similar things to what I saw.

    Quenton Bundrage is a stud. He should not come off the field unless he's tired. He did everything. He was a possession receiver, he showed some wiggle and he played tough. Nealy, I thought, was also pretty good. There was one play where he lowered the boom on an OSU defend which was really impressive. Get these guys the ball. Jarvis got one ball and he got racked up on it. That's inexcusable.

    The main problem I have is the running game. I didn't chart anything there but it needs to get better. I felt at times that we just weren't trying to run. There were some successful plays but it was almost as if we would run until they stopped us and then we would throw it around. I still think we miss James White but I don't see why Nealy can't fill that void.

    The good thing is that WVU is getting clubbed again, Baylor and Texas are scoring on each other like they are at a whore house and Oklahoma lost to KSU by the same amount as us. I know this won't make any of you happier but I do think we are competant. I will say Mess seemed to give us opportunities in the passing game but he did give up on the run. Another observation is that Rhoads is on the headset way more than he used to be. MO? He needs to stay out of it. We need to be a little more stubborn in running the ball, especially if Barnett is in. He can really run the ball at times. If Steele's in, I think we need to ditch the option but we still have to run it.


    Quickly on the defense: Two turnovers in the redzone. Yeah, we forced them....whatever. That was the only thing keeping them from 40. Also, we missed about 5 chances to pick Walsh off. He made some awful decisions. Off the top of my head, Washington missed a pick six, Givens timed a ump wrong and Knott overran a route. There was another one and I think it was Reeves. The Dline was Ok at best against the run and didn't get a lot of pressure. I'm not sure what to make of it but there were too many yards. After watching WVU, now though, we should have a blueprint or two and they will likely be the best we face unless Baylor goes buck wild. Outside of Oklahoma, no one has an unbeatable resume and I think we have faced our worst matchups outside of OU. We will see what happens but I think we will be ok. I know, I have done a 180 in 5 hours.


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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Another solid analysis. Thank you.




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    Re: Charting the QBs

    The not catchable number for Barnett hurts. A lot of those ball are just balls that are skidding along the ground by the receiver. Even the catchable ones he delivers (like the one to I believe Tiller? today short of the marker by a yard) we're losing YAC because the receivers are falling to their knees to secure the catch instead of worrying about picking up yards after securing the ball.



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Thanks Trevor, gives me a little peace of mind. Let's make the game next week LOUD!



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    I agree about Bundrage and Nealy. Those guys look hungry to make plays. That great catch and run after by Bundrage was great to see. How long has it been since we had a WR that could do that?



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Quote Originally Posted by IcSyU View Post
    The not catchable number for Barnett hurts. A lot of those ball are just balls that are skidding along the ground by the receiver. Even the catchable ones he delivers (like the one to I believe Tiller? today short of the marker by a yard) we're losing YAC because the receivers are falling to their knees to secure the catch instead of worrying about picking up yards after securing the ball.
    Right and that would be a whole other metric that i may do at some point but it's tough. That one to Tiller where he was down could have been avoided by Tiller too. Ultimately, it's a play were Barnett and Tiller both did their primary job but didn't go above and beyond. Same goes for the ball Tiller dove for. Not a bad throw, Tiller could have gotten to it but didn't. That NC number isn't good. I mean, he's limiting his completion percentage to about 70% right there. It still wasn't as bad as I thought, though. I did also note that he was doing a good job on leading guys on screens and such.


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    Re: Charting the QBs

    But at the end of the day, that is another sub 50 completion percentage.

    Lets take that flea flicker. Guy was open, great call. You have to make that throw.


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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Thanks, 5 hours later and I am coming off the frustration of the day and looking forward to freezing next week and expecting an ISU win.



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    I agree that Tiller needs to know to be beyond the sticks but Barnett needs to be delivering the ball right into his numbers. That's a throw I can make the majority of the time and I'm nowhere near a D1 quarterback. Barnett tries to just throw it to a guy instead of through the guy. Touch is great on some passes...on something like that I want to see the Howitzer.



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Quote Originally Posted by Goothrey View Post
    But at the end of the day, that is another sub 50 completion percentage.

    Lets take that flea flicker. Guy was open, great call. You have to make that throw.
    You're right, I'm still mad we missed that throw



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    I think that catchable balls can be very deceiving. A lot of the throws in the offense work best when the receiver can catch them in stride moving forward and that has been a struggle. I don't think that the Qbs are as bad as everyone has given them credit for, but I think that they need to work a lot on some of the quick hitting timing routes. Even last year when the offense was doing well that was a challenge for the offense and I think that those routes are as much on the receiver and the QB.



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Quote Originally Posted by Goothrey View Post
    But at the end of the day, that is another sub 50 completion percentage.

    Lets take that flea flicker. Guy was open, great call. You have to make that throw.
    But neither QB "deserved" that percentage which goes to show this isn't strictly a QB problem. My prediction: A QB will start next week. Said QB will play good or bad and get the glory/blame. In either scenario there will be more to blame than them. That was part of my point.

    That flea flicker needs to be completed, I agree but at the same time, other parts of the team need to complete things they aren't completing.


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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Quote Originally Posted by IcSyU View Post
    I agree that Tiller needs to know to be beyond the sticks but Barnett needs to be delivering the ball right into his numbers. That's a throw I can make the majority of the time and I'm nowhere near a D1 quarterback. Barnett tries to just throw it to a guy instead of through the guy. Touch is great on some passes...on something like that I want to see the Howitzer.
    Yeah, I guess I meant Tiller could have made that catch without going to his knees. I did check that out. That's a great example of a play you see Terrance Williams or Steadman Bailey make, you know what I mean. It's not that Tiller really failed, but he just didn't have that extra to add to the ordinary. I watch some of these teams and the successful ones don't have a QB that just puts it on em' every time. They make plays. These are the plays I think Bundrage can make. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong and expect too much out of a receiver but they need to make more happen.


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    Re: Charting the QBs

    I like seeing this analysis and love the effort you put into it but I'll be honest, Outside of the first drive, Barnett was horrible. I don't know what your metrics are for the four categories but wanted to pose this question to you... If 25 of your 38 passes are dead on or catchable, how many of those were 2-3 yd slants or wr screens in which we should be throwing those at MUCH higher accuracies? Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I would hope that we're completing 65% of our throws and not hoping that 65% of our throws are getting close to our wr's (Currently, there are 37 qb's with a 65% or better completion percentage).



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    Re: Charting the QBs

    Quote Originally Posted by Tre4ISU View Post
    But neither QB "deserved" that percentage which goes to show this isn't strictly a QB problem.
    The issue with that statement is that the same benefit-of-the-doubt analysis would need to be applied to all QB's and all QB stats for there to be real value. Most QB's % would go up based on what they "deserved".



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