***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0*** - Page 101
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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    **2014 CRZZZFFL REGULAR SEASON CHAMPION***

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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Makes sense. The basketball only schools only put up with the football schools because many were regional basketball matchups and football brought more money. Football won't be bringing the money anymore and will just be adding a ton of extra travel for these non-football schools to add to their budgets.

    Those 7 schools would be a good starter point to pick off a few teams from one of the lesser conferences.


    Last edited by alarson; 12-11-2012 at 04:04 AM.

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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    So sounds like FSU is using big 12 as a fall back to get a better deal.

    At this point it looks like Miami and Clemson have no other options (Unless they are hoping for ACC survival). B1G and SEC don't want them. Why not make a push for them now. They would actually fit the big 12's model of needing marquee football matchups for TV (rather than population bases to support a network).

    It would be more of a move to ensure our survival anyway. Then we can sit at 12, and let the other pieces unfold, or make last pitches for ND or FSU.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by IHavNoCyCash View Post
    Death throes.

    Really sucks to be UConn and Cincinnati right now. That's right where a lot of people thought ISU should be two years ago. The Big 12 really needs to do those teams a favor and get them into the ACC. Lots of wreckage to realignment.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    Big Ten Expansion Motivated By Fear Of Losing Penn State - BC Interruption


    But wouldn't you know that part of the reason the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers was because they feared losing its easternmost member to an unspecified "league somewhere on the East Coast?" According to Wisconsin A.D. Barry Alvarez, anyway:

    "Jim felt that someday, if we didn't have anyone else in that corridor, someday it wouldn't make sense maybe for Penn State to be in our league," Alvarez told the board, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "That they would go into a league somewhere on the East Coast. By doing that, it keeps us in the Northeast corridor."
    Turns out the cat was already out of the bag. Delany seemingly backed up Alvarez's comments a month ago when asked about the prospect of losing teams to other conferences.
    "But I do think that you need to build, and this build really solidifies the expansion we've done in the past. We've done one in the East, we've done one in the West [Nebraska in 2010]. I would say the driving force is demographics, but when you look at it, you can't help but think this is good for Penn State as well."
    So when/who solidifies Nebby to the west?




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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by cykadelic2 View Post
    Regarding #1, any additional realignment will likely be driven by Notre Dame. The only way ESPN will increase its payout to the ACC is if ND engages fully with ESPN and becomes a full member. It's possible that ESPN increases the ACC payout without ND just to keep the ACC as-is but I doubt that happens.

    Regarding #2, probably the only way that the B12 can justify expansion to 16 is with both FSU and ND. Any other combination of 6 schools likely will not generate enough value to existing B12 members. I do agree that scheduling with 14 is a pain in the rear but a potential combination of FSU, Clemson, VPI, NCST, Miami and Wake/Pitt probably is not going to generate an additional $180M of value per year for the networks and B12 unless Fox really wants to crack the SE market for CFB and pay through the nose to do so.

    According to recent reports, ESPN is paying or will pay around $18/yr for all 3 tiers and the new Orange Bowl payout to ACC schools. ESPN and Fox will pay approx $30M/yr to B12 schools for T1, T2 and the Sugar Bowl payout. ESPN wants to keep the ACC together with or without ND so if the B12 expands, Fox will be footing the vast majority or all of the TV network bill for B12 expansion.
    What I don't get, is how the Big 12 + 4 or 6 football minded ACC schools, can be significantly different than the SEC that is valued slightly higher per team than the Big 12.

    How is Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas, WV worth less money than the SEC markets plus one or two more mid population states? Especially considering the football product is superior to top money earner Big 10. It would be SEC 2.0 in terms of markets and football.

    There's no way FSU and one other football leaning school does not help the Big 12 in this changing landscape. I pray that the "only Notre Dame" mindset is only prevalent on message boards and not with the Big 12 brass.


    Last edited by HFCS; 12-11-2012 at 09:36 AM.

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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by 00clone View Post
    So when/who solidifies Nebby to the west?
    There's no fear of losing Nebraska because where would they go?



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by BloodyBuddy View Post
    So sounds like FSU is using big 12 as a fall back to get a better deal.

    At this point it looks like Miami and Clemson have no other options (Unless they are hoping for ACC survival). B1G and SEC don't want them. Why not make a push for them now. They would actually fit the big 12's model of needing marquee football matchups for TV (rather than population bases to support a network).

    It would be more of a move to ensure our survival anyway. Then we can sit at 12, and let the other pieces unfold, or make last pitches for ND or FSU.
    Not to mention that lack of marquee football games is FSU's #1 gripe outside of their lower payout than SEC competitors. Take away Miami and Clemson (or even Pitt) and there's an even higher ration of games agains basketball schools.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by 00clone View Post
    So when/who solidifies Nebby to the west?
    I feel like Iowa is enough to solidify a Nebraska connection...and by extension Wisconsin (ouch 70 points???) and Minnesota form a nice little segment for the Big Ten.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    TheDudeofWV's post yesterday (FSU and Big Ten in talks) tells me that realignment is cooling down for the time being and the ACC may survive (for now), but WVU brass who have constantly supported expansion want to try and increase fan outcry. I'm not saying the ACC is solidified. It still could blow up down the road.

    A lot of this probably hindges on the Maryland buyout.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue52 View Post

    A lot of this may hindge on the Maryland buyout.
    Doubtful imo. Even if it is $40-50 million, the increase in money, both athletically and academically, for schools to go BIG over the ACC makes that pretty small.

    I think it hinges on the BIG playing chicken with UNC. If UNC does not blink, BIG would take another (the next weakest link being FSU), and so on until UNC gives up on the ACC. However, the BIG does not have incentive to make that move right now, and other schools will wait to move until they know the BIG is no longer an option.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue52 View Post
    TheDudeofWV's post yesterday (FSU and Big Ten in talks) tells me that realignment is cooling down for the time being and the ACC may survive (for now), but WVU brass who have constantly supported expansion want to try and increase fan outcry. I'm not saying the ACC is solidified. It still could blow up down the road.

    A lot of this probably hindges on the Maryland buyout.

    I quit following the Dude of WV. If you pay attention to his comments over time, he really resents the ACC. It seems pretty likely to me that he may have some stuff right, but a lot of it is exaggerated or made up to 1) make the ACC appear weak for his own personal agenda, and 2) generate traffic to his site.

    I honestly think the chances of the ACC breaking up are slim to none.

    That said, that Maryland buyout price may have big repercussions.


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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by swarthmoreCY View Post
    Doubtful imo. Even if it is $40-50 million, the increase in money, both athletically and academically, for schools to go BIG over the ACC makes that pretty small.

    I think it hinges on the BIG playing chicken with UNC. If UNC does not blink, BIG would take another (the next weakest link being FSU), and so on until UNC gives up on the ACC. However, the BIG does not have incentive to make that move right now, and other schools will wait to move until they know the BIG is no longer an option.
    UNC isn't going anywhere unless NC State has a nice home, and then only if the ACC is exploding at that exact moment. The North Carolina Board of Governors (equivalent to Iowa's board of reagents) makes the final decision on any conference move, and they won't do anything that put's NC State in danger.

    If they do, then the wrath of the NC State-friendly NC House and Senate will go scorched earth on this conference realignment stuff.


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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by colbycheese View Post
    UNC isn't going anywhere unless NC State has a nice home, and then only if the ACC is exploding at that exact moment. The North Carolina Board of Governors (equivalent to Iowa's board of reagents) makes the final decision on any conference move, and they won't do anything that put's NC State in danger.

    If they do, then the wrath of the NC State-friendly NC House and Senate will go scorched earth on this conference realignment stuff.
    lol, NC State is in no danger of not being in a conference.



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    Re: ***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***

    Quote Originally Posted by colbycheese View Post
    I quit following the Dude of WV. If you pay attention to his comments over time, he really resents the ACC. It seems pretty likely to me that he may have some stuff right, but a lot of it is exaggerated or made up to 1) make the ACC appear weak for his own personal agenda, and 2) generate traffic to his site.

    I honestly think the chances of the ACC breaking up are slim to none.

    That said, that Maryland buyout price may have big repercussions.
    If the major surrounding conferences were at 16, 16, 16 or 12, 12, 12 right now I could see it. But we're at 14, 14, 10, 14. Everything (outside of Big 12 spin talking points) points to leagues most preferring 12 or 16.

    Just don't think the major eastern and midwest leagues stay at 14,14,10,14 and the ACC is clearly the best available pool for the other three to even out to 16 or 12.

    I'm highly skeptical of the Big 12 company line that FSU and 'random other team' isn't a huge victory for the Big 12. I think it's out there so if FSU never comes on board we don't look weak. I even think two non FSU teams could be a big victory for the conference if they bring big states like Miami/GTech or Miami/VaTech. Looking at it as a total TV contract divided by 10/12/14/16 is so much more simplistic than the way this game has been played.

    If I were the Big 12, I'd want college football fans to believe a fib that we're only going beyond 10 if it's FSU/ND because that's the only couple that increases $ payout per school. But in private, I'd be thrilled with any combination of 2/4/6 of 6-8 of the current ACC schools (FSU, Pitt, GTech, VaTech, Clemson, Miami, NC State, UL in that order) while keeping WVU more solid long term.



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