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  1. #1
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    ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    It's an insider article but I will share. NCAA tournament - Giant Killers - Teams most vulnerable to upsets - ESPN Points out some stuff we already know, we do give up a lot of easy baskets. I think our biggest flaw is we sometimes live or die by the 3 pointer. If the 3 ball is not falling and teams can keep Royce out of the paint we have a hard time creating shots unless Scotty, Allen, and Babb are creating off the dribble or Royce is finding Ejim near the basket when the double comes.

    KSU and Baylor also made the list. To no surprise no Big 10 teams on the list even though we all know that there will be multiple upsets before the Sweet 16 involving Big 10 teams. When Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana all lose to a mediocre Iowa team and they are all looking at being a 3 or 4 seed I would be surprised to see any more than 1 of them make the Sweet 16. The current bracketology would have Wisconsin playing Louisville in the 2nd round, Indiana playing VCU first round then Florida if they won that game and Michigan playing Vanderbilt. I could see all 3 getting knocked off. We need to win a game or 2 in the Big 12 tourney and improve on our 8 seed because I don't see us beating a #1 seed being a projected #8 seed right now. Getting a #7 or #6 would definitely help our odds.

    Iowa State Cyclones (38.5)
    Like Vanderbilt or Florida State, Iowa State is a much better team than Giant. The Cyclones let opponents take a lot of shots, and a lot of good shots, but amp up their efficiency by crashing the defensive boards. Unfortunately, our model finds that forcing turnovers and stifling 2-point shots are important for warding off Killers, while limiting opponent offensive rebounds doesn't add much to a Giant's survival chances. This means Iowa State will probably have an easier time against Texas in the Big 12 tournament on Thursday night than it would against, say, Belmont.

    Key stats: The Cyclones generate turnovers on just 18 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 288th in the NCAA), and allow opponents to shoot 50.3 percent from inside


    Go Cubs Go!

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    Re:ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    How can we be upset if we go in as an 8 seed? We play the 9 seed first. Not really an upset if we lose. Follow that with the 1 seed.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    I doubt we are an 8. Maybe but I doubt it especially if we win 2 in the tournament.

    I compare us to Michigan. The difference is Trey Burke is our Royce. Both teams live of those guys creating open threes and some easy buckets. I love Royce and wouldn't trade him for anyone else in the country on this team but he simply has not been a post presence. We have no guy to dump it into to score. Both teams could make huge runs, or both could flame out early. It will very likely depend on 3 point shooting for both teams.


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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    50% from inside? Jeesh.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    We will climb up to a 7 seed and become a giant killer knocking off the 2 seed!


    Comingtoyaaaahaaa!!

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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    whatevs...



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    Teams have known what they need to stop all year, and haven't. Bring it on.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    That's nice they think we might get upset by Belmont, that means we are probably a 5 seed :)



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    Quote Originally Posted by iowast8fan View Post
    How can we be upset if we go in as an 8 seed? We play the 9 seed first. Not really an upset if we lose. Follow that with the 1 seed.
    Beats me, good point though. Unless we get a seeding under 8 hard to say any loss we have as an upset. I'm still optimistic that we can pull off a 6 or 7 seed with a decent showing in KC. It baffles me how Baylor as the #4 seed in the Big 12 tourney is a projected #3 seed in the NCAA tourney while we are #3 in the Big 12 but a #8 in the current bracketology. Indiana and Wisconsin are projected #4 seeds which is BS as we have practically identical records to both in conference and overall by just 1 or 2 wins.

    I'm so frustrated with the love affair of the Big 10 right now. I'd pit the Big 12 top 4 against the Big 10 top 4 right now as Ohio State and Michigan State are the only 2 teams in that conference that I think have any chance of making a deep run while I think KU, Mizzou, and Baylor if they get their act together can all make deep runs with the talent they have. I hate to knock our team but just making the Sweet 16 would be quite an accomplishment. I'm just too worried that our lack of tourney experience plus our reliance on hitting the 3 pointer is going to make our break our tourney chance.


    Go Cubs Go!

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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    I guess I like this better than them saying another team might be vulnerable to an upset from us.. this implies we are expected to win and if we don't, its an upset...I can live with that.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    Quote Originally Posted by CYdTracked View Post
    Beats me, good point though. Unless we get a seeding under 8 hard to say any loss we have as an upset. I'm still optimistic that we can pull off a 6 or 7 seed with a decent showing in KC. It baffles me how Baylor as the #4 seed in the Big 12 tourney is a projected #3 seed in the NCAA tourney while we are #3 in the Big 12 but a #8 in the current bracketology. Indiana and Wisconsin are projected #4 seeds which is BS as we have practically identical records to both in conference and overall by just 1 or 2 wins.

    I'm so frustrated with the love affair of the Big 10 right now. I'd pit the Big 12 top 4 against the Big 10 top 4 right now as Ohio State and Michigan State are the only 2 teams in that conference that I think have any chance of making a deep run while I think KU, Mizzou, and Baylor if they get their act together can all make deep runs with the talent they have. I hate to knock our team but just making the Sweet 16 would be quite an accomplishment. I'm just too worried that our lack of tourney experience plus our reliance on hitting the 3 pointer is going to make our break our tourney chance.
    Me too. I will be cheering for any opponent of the Big Ten throughout the tournament, and will only be satisfied if they all make embarrassing exits.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    I think you can say any team that lives by the three as much as we do can also die by it rather easily.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    Should be noted. 38.5 is out of 100 on being upset. Not that bad.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    Quote Originally Posted by CYdTracked View Post
    It's an insider article but I will share. NCAA tournament - Giant Killers - Teams most vulnerable to upsets - ESPN Points out some stuff we already know, we do give up a lot of easy baskets. I think our biggest flaw is we sometimes live or die by the 3 pointer. If the 3 ball is not falling and teams can keep Royce out of the paint we have a hard time creating shots unless Scotty, Allen, and Babb are creating off the dribble or Royce is finding Ejim near the basket when the double comes.

    KSU and Baylor also made the list. To no surprise no Big 10 teams on the list even though we all know that there will be multiple upsets before the Sweet 16 involving Big 10 teams. When Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana all lose to a mediocre Iowa team and they are all looking at being a 3 or 4 seed I would be surprised to see any more than 1 of them make the Sweet 16. The current bracketology would have Wisconsin playing Louisville in the 2nd round, Indiana playing VCU first round then Florida if they won that game and Michigan playing Vanderbilt. I could see all 3 getting knocked off. We need to win a game or 2 in the Big 12 tourney and improve on our 8 seed because I don't see us beating a #1 seed being a projected #8 seed right now. Getting a #7 or #6 would definitely help our odds.
    I will scream for joy every time someone from the Big ten loses in the dance. Not because I have the big 10 but because then I will get the see all these national media personalities eat crow.



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    Re: ESPN Article: ISU Vulernable to Upset

    I'm not sure we'll be in any spot to get upset, if we shoot decent we can hang with anyone. Our biggest weakness will be if we run in to a team with quick guards who can get to the rack, we struggle against scoring guards especially in transition. I'm not scared of any team who wants to get into a half court game with us.



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