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  1. #1
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    Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Arguments have ensued in nearly every recent thread on Fanatic when the subject of ISU's tournament hopes is involved, following statements like these:

    "We have to finish ahead of (Texas; KSU) in the standings."
    "ISU has to finish in the top five, because only five teams from the Big 12 are getting in."
    "The committee will take either Texas or ISU, but not both."
    "10-8 won't get us in."

    Granted, any or all of those could prove true if Iowa State is left out, but it won't be cause-and-effect. It'll be in retrospect, a reflection of how it happened, not "what" happened.

    Tournament standings (or record) alone do not determine a bid.

    But don't listen to me, or any other random fan. How about we get it from the horse's mouth — the tournament committee chairman:

    Committee chair discusses process - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Well that is just stupid, so UCONN is looking good after winning all those early games and not so many now, I'm calling BS on some of that.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by 2020cy View Post
    Well that is just stupid, so UCONN is looking good after winning all those early games and not so many now, I'm calling BS on some of that.
    I assume that's a reference to the "total body of work" part.

    Are you calling BS that UConn is in good shape for a bid even though its success this season is front-loaded? That the committee should reinstate the "Last 10/Last 12" aspect (abandoned a few years ago) and compare "recent" performance to "early" results?

    Or BS that UConn might get a "pass" with body-of-work rule, even if it doesn't feel like a tournament-worthy team?

    Or BS that the committee actually adheres to "body of work"?

    (I won't claim that someone couldn't make an argument about any of it. Just clarifying.)



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    It looks like Texas should get to 11 wins. We should try to match.


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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    The conference record has to be a larger factor, especially with a balanced schedule like the Big 12. It's a joke that a loss in the 1st week of the season (Drake) is a factor as much as a conference game.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by 2020cy View Post
    The conference record has to be a larger factor, especially with a balanced schedule like the Big 12. It's a joke that a loss in the 1st week of the season (Drake) is a factor as much as a conference game.
    I understand what you're saying. But I don't think the Drake loss actually IS going to be considered equal to a conference game. It depends on (1) which conference game, and (2) how good Drake actually is.

    Part of the anxiety for ISU fans this season is that those specific factors — bad early-season losses vs. competent performance in conference play — strikes close to home.

    Gosh, yes, we've seen the improvement of this team throughout the season. ISU could barely beat MVSU at Hilton, then a month later nearly swept Kansas in a two-week span, a team that is now in 1 or 2 seed territory. It's night-and-day.

    Play at Drake right now, it's probably a 15-point win, on an average day. At least we assume so. Same could be said about playing UNI at home.

    But all of it still happened the way it happened. What if the ISU-Drake game was next Wednesday, and Drake was this season's St. Mary's? What if the Big 12 was a version of this season's Pac-12?



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    In a conference that plays round-robin - playing every team twice, conference finish is vital... no way a team with a lesser record jumps unless it gets smokin' hot in b12 tourney



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    It looks like Texas should get to 11 wins. We should try to match.
    I think it's more likely to be 10.

    As far as Drake goes, they do have a winning record overall and are 8-8 in-conference, and it was in state and on the road. Still a bad loss, but not nearly as bad as we thought it to be when it happened.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    We're in unless we choke or the committee screws us. Every year a team or 2 is screwed. I'm hoping we make us screw-proof but we'll have to beat somebody that we aren't favored against in order to do it.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    It looks like Texas should get to 11 wins. We should try to match.
    No way they win 4 of their last 5. I only see 2 for sure wins for Texas (@TTU and OU). They also got Baylor at home, @OSU and @KU. They could easily loose all three of those games.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    I think they'll win 3 and potentially tie us in the standings. It could make for a nail-biting first B12 tournament game.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    The selection process is a deliberate FUBAR. It creates more interest. If there were concrete standards for making the tournament, there would be nothing to talk about. A lot of people make a **** load of money off the fact there is not.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    everyone is making this more complicated than it is.

    you need good wins (rpi top 25/50/100), avoid bad losses (RPI>150), win (some) on the road, and don't play an embarssingly bad non con schedule if you're not a mid major.

    you can accomplish all of the above, good or bad, in the preseason, conference season, and conf tourney season.

    as of today, we're fine. but the season isn't over yet.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by Cydkar View Post
    I think they'll win 3 and potentially tie us in the standings. It could make for a nail-biting first B12 tournament game.
    Entirely possible...I just have a hard time believing ISU will loose 3 straight games. If they win their next two, they will have won 2 of every 3 conference games. Losing three straight would be somewhat out of character. I'm not saying they will win 2 of their last 3, but they should be able to grab 1 of them and get to 11-7.



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    Re: Bubble myth-popping: Conference standings

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    I assume that's a reference to the "total body of work" part.

    Are you calling BS that UConn is in good shape for a bid even though its success this season is front-loaded? That the committee should reinstate the "Last 10/Last 12" aspect (abandoned a few years ago) and compare "recent" performance to "early" results?

    Or BS that UConn might get a "pass" with body-of-work rule, even if it doesn't feel like a tournament-worthy team?

    Or BS that the committee actually adheres to "body of work"?

    (I won't claim that someone couldn't make an argument about any of it. Just clarifying.)
    I, for one, am glad they got rid of the last X games metric.

    If team A plays and loses to the big boys in the first few games of the their conference season and team B starts off with wins against the bottom of the league but doesn't play the big boys until a few weeks later (in their last X games) team A and team B could end up with the exact same conference record with wins and losses against exactly the same teams (except of course each other) and team A has an advantage in selection due to the last X games metric. It doesn't make sense.


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