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    National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Iowa State hosts a regional qualifier for the National Duals on Sunday, February 12th. Action starts at 11 AM when Iowa State takes on Wisconsin. No announcement about coverage yet. I will update once that happens. Here are the seedings:

    1. #5 Iowa
    2. #16 Oregon State
    3. Iowa State
    4. #23 Virginia Tech
    5. Northern Iowa
    6. Wisconsin
    *Team Ranking is from the latest USA Today Dual Rankings, which are very different from Intermat ranking since they measure dual strength rather than expected NCAA Tournament finish*

    In comparison, the Intermat rankings are:
    #4 Iowa
    #13 Iowa State
    #18 Virginia Tech
    #19 Oregon State
    #32 Northern Iowa
    #46 Wisconsin

    With the #3 seed. we'll be facing Wisconsin in the first round. I actually like this a lot because I think another "W" is good for the team and it'll give Sorenson a chance to avenge his lone loss of the season to a collegiate opponent.

    Here is a link to Iowa State's homepage for coverage including live blogs and updates


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-08-2012 at 08:29 PM.

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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Iowa State vs. Wisconsin
    Code:
    Weight   Rank  ISU Wrestler    Record        Rank  Wisconsin Wrestler  Record
    125:     #12   Ryak Finch      (12-6)   vs.        Austin Hietpas      (1-12)
    133:           RJ Hallman      (4-13)   vs.        Shane McQuade       (7-16)
    141:     #17   Luke Goettl     (10-9)   vs.        Thomas Glenn        (1-14)
    149:           Joey Cozart     (1-10)   vs.        Frank Baer          (0-1)
    157:           Mike Moreno     (3-10)   vs.        Shawn Perry         (9-11)
    165:     #4    Andrew Sorenson (23-1)   vs.  #11   Ben Jordan          (21-6)
    174:           Mikey England   (15-10)  vs.        Frank Cousins       (8-11)
    184:     #15   Boaz Beard      (7-4)    vs.        Timmy McCall        (8-11)
    197:           Jerome Ward     (0-0)    vs.        Jackson Hein        (6-10)
    HWT:     #12   Matt Gibson     (17-7)   vs.        Cole Tobin          (6-10)
    Here are my match by match thoughts followed by results between common opponents:
    125: Hietpas is not very good. Looking at his record he is decent at not getting pinned though. Assuming Finch didn't get a concussion last Friday we should get a tech fall here.

    133: McQuade has 7 wins, but none of them were against D-1 opponents. We aren't that hot at 133 either, so I'd consider this match a toss-up. It would be nice if Hallman or Shayden could get a win here. With our schedule they don't get many chances.

    141: Glenn is also not very good. I expect Goettl to score us at least 4 points here with a tech fall or pin a definite possibility.

    149: Baer is an unknown but the guy he was backing up is pretty decent. I'll consider this a toss-up just because I don't know anything about him.

    157: Moreno has a shot at a win here. He's been wrestling great the last few weeks but still needs to start turning that into some wins. If Moreno wants to have a shot at sneaking into the NCAAs he has to win matches like this one.

    165: Sorenson has one loss to a collegiate opponent this year. And that was losing 8-4 to Ben Jordan of Wisconsin at Midlands. This match alone should be worth the price of admission. They are both tough wrestlers but I am confident that Sorenson will get his revenge and the win.

    174: If Spangler is back this is bonus points for sure. If he isn't, I think Mikey should get the win on a decision.

    184: If we put Beard out there then this is a sure win, likely bonus points. If it is Christenson I would call it a toss up with Wisconsin having the edge.

    197: Jerome Ward will be giving it a go at 197 and should get us a win as long as he doesn't gas out completely. If it is Voelker I'd again call it a toss up with the edge going slightly to Wisconsin

    HWT: Colbin is not very good but rarely gets majored or pinned. There is no reason for Gibson to not get us 3 points here.

    Overall, I think we win this one 21-13 or better. There are no matches in this dual that we aren't capable of winning.



    We have had three common dual opponents with Wisconsin.

    Wisconsin vs. UNI. UNI wins 25-15
    Code:
    125: Cruse Aarhus (NI) tech. fall Austin Hietpas (WIS), 17-2 (6:35)
    133: Joe Colon (NI) tech. fall Shane McQuade (WIS), 17-2 (6:23)
    141: Levi Wolfensperger (NI) maj. dec. Thomas Glenn (WIS), 9-0
    149: Cole Schmitt (WIS) dec. Clay Welter (NI), 3-0    
    157: David Bonin (NI) maj. dec. Shawn Perry (WIS),     11-3
    165: Ben Jordan (WIS) dec. Riley Banach (NI), 6-0
    174: Frank Cousins (WIS) pins Onni Prestidge (NI), 1:10
    184: Ryan Loder (NI) maj. dec. Timmy McCall (WIS), 16-2
    197: Jackson Hein (WIS) dec. Taylor Kettman (NI), 8-3
    HWT: Blayne Beale (NI) dec. Cole Tobin (WIS), 5-2
    ISU vs. UNI. ISU wins 19-17
    Code:
    125: #12 Ryak Finch (ISU) Mdec. Cruse Aarhus (UNI), 15-4
    133: #11 Joe Colon (UNI) TF5  RJ Hallman (ISU), 17-2, 5:10
    141: #18 Luke Goettl (ISU) dec. Levi Wolfensperger, 5-1
    149: Seth Noble (UNI) dec. Joe Cozart (ISU), 7-4
    157: David Bonin (UNI) dec. Michael Moreno (ISU), 2-0
    165: #4 Andrew Sorenson (ISU) won by forfeit
    174: Mikey England (ISU) dec. Riley Banach (UNI), 8-3
    184: #6 Ryan Loder (UNI) dec. #16 Boaz Beard (ISU), 1-0
    197: Taylor Kettman (UNI) dec. Trevor Voelker (ISU), 4-2
    285: #12 Matt Gibson (ISU) dec. Blayne Beale (UNI), 7-1
    Wisconsin vs. Iowa. Iowa Wins 39-3
    Code:
    125: #1 Matt McDonough (IA) tech. fall Austin Hietpas (WIS), 20-2 (5:00)
    133: #4 Tony Ramos (IA) tech. fall Shane McQuade (WIS), 25-7
    141: #7 Montell Marion (IA) maj. dec. Thomas Glenn (WIS), 21-7 
    149: Mike Kelly (IA) won by forfeit
    157: Derek St. John (IA) dec. Shawn Perry (WIS), 6-1 
    165: #8 Mike Evans (IA) pinned #12 Ben Jordan (WIS), 3:23
    174: #9 Ethen Lofthouse (IA) maj. dec. Frank Cousins (WIS), 16-5 
    184: Vinnie Wagner (IA) dec. Timmy McCall (WIS), 6-1 
    197: Jackson Hein (WIS) dec. Tomas Lira (IA), 9-7 
    Hwt: Bobby Telford (IA) dec. Cole Tobin (WIS), 4-0
    ISU vs Iowa. Iowa wins 27-9
    Code:
    125: Matt McDonough (IOWA) Dec. Ryak Finch (ISU) 6-0
    133: Tony Ramos (IOWA) Pinned Shayden Terukina (ISU) 4:32
    141: Montell Marion (IOWA) MDec. Luke Goettl (ISU) 17-5
    149: Mark Ballweg (IOWA) Dec. Joe Cozart (ISU) 3-1 (OT)
    157: Derek St. John (IOWA) Pinned Michael Moreno (ISU) 4:38
    165: Andrew Sorenson (ISU) Dec. Mike Evans (IOWA) 4-3
    174: Chris Spangler (ISU) Dec. Ethen Lofthouse (IOWA) 8-5
    184: Boaz Beard (ISU) Dec. Vinnie Wagner (IOWA) 10-9
    197: Tomas Lira (IOWA) Dec. Cole Shafer (ISU) 10-6
    285: Bobby Telford (IOWA) Dec. Matt Gibson  (ISU) 9-3
    Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Minnesota wins 39-3
    Code:
    125: #1 Zach Sanders (MINN) tech fall Austin Hietpas (WIS), 24-9
    133: #7 Chris Dardanes (MINN) maj. dec. Shane McQuade (WIS), 14-4 
    141: #14 Nick Dardanes (MINN) maj. dec. Thomas Glenn (WIS), 14-6
    149: #11 Dylan Ness (MINN) fall #14 Cole Schmitt (WIS), 2:35
    157: Alec Ortiz (MINN) dec. Shawn Perry (WIS), 11-9
    165: #14 Ben Jordan (WIS) dec. #11 Cody Yohn (MINN), 5-3    
    174: #7 Logan Storley (MINN) tech fall Frank Cousins (WIS), 15-0
    184: #8 Kevin Steinhaus (MINN) maj. dec. Timmy McCall (WIS), 14-3
    197: #6 Sonny Yohn (MINN) dec. Jackson Hein (WIS), 7-2
    HWT: #4 Tony Nelson (MINN) dec. Cole Tobin (WIS), 6-1
    Minnesota vs. Iowa State. Minnesota wins 34-6
    Code:
    125: No. 1 Zach Sanders wins by forfeit over No. 10 Ryak Finch(ISU)
    133: No. 6 David Thorn (Minn) 14-5 maj. dec. RJ Hallman (ISU)
    141: No. 10 Nick Dardanes (Minn) 3-2 dec. Luke Goettl (ISU)
    149: No. 12 Dylan Ness (Minn) maj. dec. 13-3 Joe Cozart (ISU)
    157: Alec Ortiz (Minn) falls Michael Moreno (ISU)
    165: No. 5 Andrew Sorenson (ISU) 6-4 dec. No. 8 Cody Yohn
    174: No. 7 Chris Spangler (ISU) dec. 5-3 No. 10 Logan Storley
    184: No. 9 Kevin Steinhaus (Minn) 16-3 maj. dec. Mike England (ISU)
    197: No. 3 Sonny Yohn (Minn) 11-0 maj. dec. Cole Shafer (ISU)
    HWT: No. 7 Tony Nelson (Minn) 4-0 dec. No. 20 Matt Gibson (ISU)



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Iowa State vs. #16 Oregon State
    Code:
    Weight   Rank  ISU Wrestler    Record        Rank  OSU Wrestler        Record
    125:     #12   Ryak Finch      (12-6)   vs.        Pat Rollins         (22-12)
    133:           RJ Hallman      (4-13)   vs.        James Roberts       (12-8)
    141:     #17   Luke Goettl     (10-9)   vs.  #4    Mike Mangrum        (30-2)
    149:           Joey Cozart     (1-10)   vs.  #16   Scott Sakaguchi     (28-5)
    157:           Mike Moreno     (3-10)   vs.  #18   RJ Pena             (24-9)
    165:     #4    Andrew Sorenson (23-1)   vs.        Cody Weishoff       (13-14)
    174:           Mikey England   (15-10)  vs.        Joe Latham          (1-9)
    184:     #15   Boaz Beard      (7-4)    vs.        Ty Vinson           (17-13)
    197:           Jerome Ward     (0-0)    vs.  #17   Taylor Meeks        (17-4)
    HWT:     #12   Matt Gibson     (17-7)   vs.  #5    Clayton Jack        (30-1)
    Here are my match by match thoughts followed by results between common opponents:
    125: Rollins is no slouch, but bonus points from Finch could be the key to this dual.

    133: Hallman has faced a much tougher schedule than Roberts. Both of them have gotten their wins primarily against lower tier guys. Roberts does own a win over former Cyclone Patrick Hunter, beating him 10-4 in Cedember. I give Roberts the edge but a win here would be huge for the chances of ISU winning the dual.

    141: Goettl has the talent to beat guys like Magrum, but is inconsistent. So I have to consider this a likely loss. They both won close matches against Brandon Weist from Missouri but Goettl has lost twice to Kindig from Oklahoma, who Magrum beat 12-7. Magrum has lots of pins and Tech Falls on his resume this year so hopefully Goettl keeps it to a decision.

    149: Sakaguchi is a good, consistent wrestler. Short of a lucky pin I don't see much chance for Cozart here. Keeping it to a decision will be important.

    157: Pena has almost 20 pins this year. However, he has very few wins that aren't pins. He goes big or goes home. As long as Moreno can stay off of his back I think he can get a win here. But it'll be more important to not give up 6.

    165: Sorenson should be hungry for extra points here. I'm counting on a tech fall or pin to help out the team point race. Latham and Weisshoff have switched around at 165/174 at times, so they might give Sorenson Latham as a sacrificial lamb and put Weisshoff at 174 in hopes of giving up less overall team points.

    174: If Spangler is back this is bonus points for sure. If he isn't, I think Mikey should get the win on a decision.

    184: If it is Beard we should get the win here. Christenson would be a tossup.

    197: This will be a great test for Jerome. A match against a good, but not elite, wrestler like Meeks will give us a pretty good idea where Ward is at. I think he gets the win. Keep in mind that if Ward is back at where he is capable of we are suddenly in a very real position to place in the top 10 in March. So we all should want Ward to perform well here.

    HWT: Gibson seems to hit a ceiling against top 10 guys. I give this to Jack. Hopefully by decision.

    When I did my initial estimate of the scores it came up 17-17. This might come down to bonus points. To get to that score we need Finch, Sorenson, Beard, and Enlgand to take care of business; Ward to wrestle like he's capable of; and everyone else to limit bonus points for Oregon State. To turn that tie into a win we need all that to happen and also get an upset from Hallman and/or Moreno. We are certainly capable of winning this dual, but it'll take everyone wrestling at the top of their game.

    Oregon State vs. Arizona State. Oregon State wins 32-18
    Code:
    125: Pat Rollins fall David Prado (ASU), 1:41
    133: Shane McGough (ASU) fall Garrett Drucker
    141: Mike Mangrum technical fall Kalin Goodsite (ASU)
    149: Scott Sakaguchi fall Kyle McIntosh (ASU), 1:20
    157: RJ Pena fall Victor DeJesus (ASU), 2:26
    165: Cody Weishoff decision Hans Rasmusson (ASU), 9-2
    174: Jacob Graham (ASU) fall Ty Vinson, 5:48
    184: Kevin Radford (ASU) decision John Tuck, 7-3
    197: Tommy Burriel (ASU) decision Taylor Meeks, 7-5
    HWT: Clayton Jack fall Levi Cooper (ASU), 3:26
    Iowa State vs. Arizona State, Iowa State wins 25-14
    Code:
    125: Ryak Finch (ISU) Mdec. Dalton Miller (ASU), 11-3
    133: Shane McGough (ASU) Mdec. Shayden Terukina (ISU), 15-4
    141: Luke Goettl (ISU) pinned Nathan Hoffer (ASU), 4:57
    149: Kyle McIntosh (ASU) dec. Luke Swalla (ISU), 5-3
    157: Michael Moreno (ISU) dec. Victor DeJesus (ASU), 6-5
    165: Andrew Sorenson (ISU) tech fall Hans Rasmusson (ASU), 23-5, 6:28
    174: Mikey England (ISU) Mdec. Jacob Graham (ASU), 12-2
    184: Boaz Beard (ISU) dec. Kevin Radford (ASU), 10-5
    197: Tommy Burriel (ASU) Mdec. Cole Shafer (ISU), 11-3
    285: Levi Cooper (ASU) dec. Matt Gibson (ISU), 4-1
    Oregon State vs. Missouri. Missouri wins 21-18
    Code:
    125: Alan Waters (MU) technical fall Pat Rollins, 19-3
    133: Nathan McCormick (MU) decision James Roberts, 9-3
    141: Mike Mangrum decision Brandon Wiest (MU), 7-5 (OT)
    149: Scott Sakaguchi decision Kyle Bradley (MU), 8-5
    157: Drake Houdashelt (MU) decision RJ Pena, 11-7
    165: Zach Toal (MU) decision Cody Weishoff, 3-1
    174: Dorian Henderson (MU) decision Ty Vinson, 5-2
    184: Mike Larson (MU) major decision John Tuck, 8-0
    194: Taylor Meeks fall Brent Haynes (MU), 4:23
    HWT: Clayton Jack fall Devon Mellon (MU), 2:05
    Most recent Iowa State vs. Missouri. Missouri wins 25-11
    Code:
    125: Alan Waters (UM) dec. Ryak Finch (ISU), 4-0
    133: Eric Wilson (UM) dec. RJ Hallman (ISU), 9-3
    141: Luke Goettl (ISU) dec. Nicholas Hucke (UM), 9-2
    149: Kyle Bradley (UM) dec. Luke Swalla (ISU), 5-2
    157: Drake Houdashelt (UM) Mdec. Michael Moreno (ISU), 11-1
    165: Andrew Sorenson (ISU) tech fall. Jordan Gagliano (UM), 20-2 5:34
    174: Patrick Wright (UM) dec. Mikey Engalnd (ISU), 4-2 (OT)
    184: Mike Larson (UM) dec. Boaz Beard (ISU), 5-2 (OT)
    197: Brent Haynes (UM) tech fall Cole Shafer (ISU), 22-7 6:29
    285: Matt Gibson (ISU) dec. Devin Mellon (UM), 5-0


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-08-2012 at 10:05 PM.

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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    WOW!!! Excellent preview Judoka. Thanks

    Since it is in our house, I hope we are fired up and the crowd is loud. I assume neither of these teams will travel very well as far as fan base.

    If you are watching for additional info, keep and eye on ISUChip's preview at Cyclone Report. He does a good job at directing a person to info, but no preview.

    I will be there in Section 133 cheering the Cyclones on!!!



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    A lot of this weekend depends on how Ward does. With England rather than Spangler we go from a stud to an average wrestler. Which would be be a huge difference in a tournament but isn't a huge deal for dual meets. With Shafer out we go from an average wrestler to a big hole. Which makes very little difference for NCAAs but makes a huge difference for dual meets. If Ward can get wins in the first two duals that will go a long way towards getting us a rematch with Iowa in the finals. Without Ward we still beat Wisconsin, but our chances at beating Oregon State slip from "decent" to "slim".


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-08-2012 at 07:29 PM.

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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Great update and analysis, thanks! Looking forward to folioing this Sunday.



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Yeah, nice preview, Judoka! I also liked ISU's seed and opponent(s) and wish I lived close enough to attend. Anyone who does will see some great wrestling and it would be a great way to support the team.

    The possible matchups should really be motivational for the guys - Wisconsin, Oregon State and Iowa.

    Here again is ISUChip's preview post on Cyclone Report:
    CycloneReport.com - Message Boards - *** National Duals Info Thread ***

    Among other things, it includes online viewing options and previews of the teams (including one already for Wisconsin), with more obviously to follow as he continues to update/fill in that post.

    Here also is an excellent ISU Daily article on senior Jerome Ward, slated to see his first action of the season, that someone else had linked on that site:
    Ward preparing for return from serious injury - Iowa State Daily: Wrestling



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Great preview - thanks!



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Those comments from Ward make me feel a lot less confident. Hopefully he is good to go for at least the Oregon State dual.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-09-2012 at 11:36 AM.

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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    I agree with you Judoka. But its probably a good option compared to the results lately at 197. We will know more after this weekend who should be at 197. A lot depends if Shafer is available. I understand where KJ is coming from, is Jerome going to get hurt any worse. A lot of guys are wrestling hurt. Jerome is on a decent scholarship and a redshirt senior and the team needs him. If the injury can cause long term problems, that 1 thing, if not that's another.

    Options are
    A less than healthy Ward
    A less than healthy Shafer
    a healthy Voelker
    a lealthy Christensen



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Spangler is listed as a possibility at 174 in our release, so he must have been cleared. The only way we face a quality 174 pounder would be against Iowa in the finals. So if he is coming back this will be a good setting for him to give stuff a try. After this weekend it is almost a month to the Big 12s. So if he is able to go at all on Sunday I'd expect him back at 100% or close to it in March.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-10-2012 at 08:12 PM.

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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Your so called house is going to be over run with Hawkeyes.



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    At the Rutger's regional today Minnesota beat Missouri 26-7 to win it and advance to the finals.



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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by krieger View Post
    Your so called house is going to be over run with Hawkeyes.
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    Re: National Duals Ames Regional Preview/Prediction

    I'm listening to a podcast interview with Jackson (PodOmatic | Best Free Podcasts) and he says that he's not expecting Ward to wrestle every match but he is expecting him in the lineup for sure.

    It takes a few minutes to get started, but it's a really good interview.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-11-2012 at 07:03 PM.

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  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM