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  1. #1
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    Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    After the loss to Texas last night, my brother and I are dumbfounded by the personnel Hoiberg continues to play and why he thinks he has the right combination starting, coming off the bench, etc. Numbers don't lie and while intangibles do play a key role outside of the statistics, when it comes down to the cold hard facts, I cannot fathom why Tyrus still isn't starting, why Melvin continues to jack up 3s, and what Hoiberg sees in Scott playing as many minutes as he does.

    As we all know, our non-conference strength of schedule was 155 and we don't have a notable win that passes the "eye-test". Now that we've moved into conference play, competition has stiffened and we now are seeing which players are "contenders" and "pretenders".

    Lets take a look at the numbers to see who is most "efficient" and who should be playing based off of offensive statistics. We cannot take into account the intangibles, as we know they play a significant role, but stats are more measurable in terms of offensive performance. These stats definitely show who needs to be in the game down the stretch.

    These statistics trend towards who plays the best based on minutes per game.

    R. White - 29.7 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 13s; makes 5 out of 9.35 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 3m 10s; makes a shot every 6m 18s.
    Makes 3.25 out of 6.35 free throws per game
    Shoots a free throw every 4m 16s
    1 rebound every 3m 7s
    1 assist every 6m 40s
    1 turnover every 7m 56s

    We all know Royce is a stat stuffer. He leads us in everything, including turnovers. He needs to eliminate some of the silly mistakes and has been doing a better job in the past 10 games. He is our catalyst and he must carry us through February and March. Free throws have to be above 60% come February/March for us to win. He is shooting a measly 39% in conference from the line currently.

    C. Allen - 29 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 23s; makes 3.65 out of 10.15 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 2m 51s; makes a shot every 7m
    3 pointers: makes 2 out of 5.8 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m
    Makes 2.8 out of 3.5 free throws per game
    shoots a free throw every 8m 20s
    1 rebound every 12m 3s
    1 assist every 11m 7s
    1 turnover every 12m 39s

    Chris Allen needs to stop shooting fade away 3s and forcing terrible shots. Attempting more shots than points scored isn't efficient. He needs to get better looks with his feet set.

    S. Christopherson - 30.4 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 52s; makes 3.4 out of 8.15 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 3m 42s; makes a shot every 9m 5s
    3 pointers: Makes 1.65 out of 4.05 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 7m 31s
    Makes 2.25 out of 2.45 free throws per game
    shoots a free throw every 12m 30s
    1 rebound every 10m 31s
    1 assist every 15m 9s
    1 turnover every 17m 53s

    Scott is one of the best 3pt shooters and our best FT shooter. He isn't getting enough touches or shots during game. He cannot keep up with faster players and needs to save his energy for offense in order to get more looks from 3s. We need to run more set plays to Scott so he can set his feet and shoot, while coming off of screens.

    T. McGee - 20.6 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 13s; 2.85 out of 6.05 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 3m 24s; makes shot every 7m 15s
    3 pointers: Makes 1.85 out of 4.1 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m 2s
    (68% of field goal attempts are from 3s)
    Makes 1.75 out of 2.05 free throws per game
    shoots a free throw every 10m 6s
    1 rebound every 6m 4s (unreal for a guard)
    1 assist every 33m 12s
    1 turnover every 41m 40s

    Tyrus should be a starter because he is the most efficient shooter, scorer, and rebounding guard. He has to play more in order for us to win. He rarely turns the ball over and is a firestarter on both ends of the floor. If he doesn't play more, we won't win the "resume builders" that we need in order to make the NCAA tourney.

    C. Babb - 32.5 minutes per game

    1 point every 3m 30s; 3.2 out of 8.1 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 4m 1s; makes a shot every 10m 12s
    3 pointers: makes 2.3 out of 6.5 per game; shoots a 3 pointer every 5m
    (80% of field goal attempts are from 3s)

    Makes .85 out of 1.3 free throws per game
    1 rebound every 7m 15s
    1 assist every 20m
    1 turnover every 36m 14m

    Best lock-down defender, but has to stop being one-dimensional. With 80% of his attempts coming from 3s, he needs to drive the ball, in order to get to the line more. We know he can defend, but he must score for us to win.

    M. Ejim - 22.3 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 46s; 2.8 out of 6 shots taken per game
    takes a shot every 3m 42s; makes a shot every 7m 58s
    3 pointers: makes 0.3 out of 1.55; shoots a 3 pointer every 14m 29s
    (Shoots 19.4% overall; 8.3% in conference from 3pt)

    Makes 2.15 out of 2.9 free throws per game
    1 rebound every 3m 43s
    1 assist every 22m 13s
    1 turnover every 19m 36s

    He is left open for a reason, but just because he's open, doesn't mean he has to shoot. Melvin is 8% in conference from 3s and must dribble drive instead instead of jacking up a prayer. They are leaving him open for a reason. Stop shooting 3s please MELVIN!!!! Great rebounder and finishes around the rim, but he is killing us by playing into the other teams scouting reports and taking too many open 3s.

    P. Gibson - 11.2 minutes per game

    1 point every 2m 29s; 2.05 out of 3.22 taken per game
    takes a shot every 3m 28s; makes a shot every 5m 28s
    makes 0.39 out of 1 free throw per game
    1 rebound every 4m 40s
    1 assist every 202m
    (has to be the worst in the nation)
    1 turnover every 25m 12s

    Most efficient scorer on the team. Needs to be more physical crashing the boards and being a presence down low. He is raw and will continue to get better. He does have the best assist of the year and yes, he only has 1 assist the entire year. High-Low needs to be implemented in offensive sets in order to get him involved more.


    A. Booker - 12.2 minutes per game

    1 point every 3m 13s; 1.37 out of 2.63 taken per game
    takes a shot 3m 47s; makes a shot every 5m 57s
    3 pointers: makes 0.53 out of 1; shoots a 3 pointer every 12m 12s
    makes 0.53 out of 1.05 free throws per game
    1 rebound every 4m 41s
    1 assist every 57m 57s
    1 turnover every 21m 4s

    Takes what the defense gives him. Ejim needs to take a few notes from Booker on how shot selection plays into winning games. Booker knocks down open looks. He is a decent rebounder, but needs to get to the line more. If he continues to knock down 3s off the bench, we will continue to win games.



  2. #2
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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    You have too much time on your hands.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Good job, thanks for the effort. I'm not sure that looking just at the offensive stats is enough.

    It would also help to look at how many points below a scorer's average our players are keeping the players they guard. Also, what is the team's efficiency in scoring/defense when a player is in the game vs. not in the game. For example, having Scotty in the game may keep the other team's defense focused on him thereby leaving other players more open to score.

    I look forward to your analyses on these points as well. ;)

    Thanks for the work; it's much appreciated.


    "Of course the people don't want war ... the people can always be brought to do the bidding of the leaders. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to greater danger."
    -- Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials

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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    This will be about the 4,000th time this is repeated on the boards but it doesn't matter who starts. What matters is minutes played and McGee's continue trending upward.

    And Scotty needs to sandbag on defense to play offense? How about Scotty plays solid defensively and he doesn't need to score a ton of points. Scoring 15/game doesn't matter when he gives up 20.

    Exact opposite story with Babb. He doesn't need to score a ton. He locks down his guy and puts 10 on the board and only gives up 6 or 8? That's more than helping the team.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    What is this...Moneyball?



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Psiclone View Post
    Good job, thanks for the effort. I'm not sure that looking just at the offensive stats is enough.

    It would also help to look at how many points below a scorer's average our players are keeping the players they guard. Also, what is the team's efficiency in scoring/defense when a player is in the game vs. not in the game. For example, having Scotty in the game may keep the other team's defense focused on him thereby leaving other players more open to score.

    I look forward to your analyses on these points as well. ;)

    Thanks for the work; it's much appreciated.

    I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not...also you can't calculate these statistics. Those things are in the intangibles more because of things such as switching on defense. You would have to watch every minute of every game and note every time a specific person on the opposing team scored. These stats were based off things that you can calculate just by looking at the numbers.


    Last edited by nallen34; 01-26-2012 at 08:46 AM.

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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    you forgot shoots a free throw every for Babb, Ejim, Gibson, and Booker.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    I'm sure Coach Hoiberg has got things under control. After all, he was one of the best players to ever play at Iowa State, he played 10 seasons in the NBA, and is now a D1 basketball coach.

    It continues to amaze me how we always find something to ***** about after a loss.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Quote Originally Posted by allenj32 View Post
    After the loss to Texas last night, my brother and I are dumbfounded by the personnel Hoiberg continues to play and why he thinks he has the right combination starting, coming off the bench

    ...blah blah blah...lots of crap deleted

    Thanks for the morning humor.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Quote Originally Posted by nallen34 View Post
    I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not...also you can't calculate these statistics. Those things are in the intangibles more because of things such as switching on defense. You would have to watch every minute of every game and note every time a specific person on the opposing team scored. These stats were based off things that you can calculate just by looking at the numbers.
    I would bet that our staff is aware of such stats for our team, and I would also bet that they favor the rotation that the staff is using.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference | MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

    You guys need to go to this to really get into statistics.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    I just emailed Pollard to recommend that he fire Coach Hoiberg and hire you allenj32. You obviously know more than Fred about his players that he sees everyday. Statistically speaking I bet Fred has more clout walking into a living room and closing the deal than you do. Give it a rest. Lets do a run down here about Fred Hoiberg:

    1. One of the best and most popular (if not the most popular) player in ISU history, Hes a home town kid who stayed home to become a legend.
    2. Look up in the rafters, his number is retired.
    3. He lives and breathes ISU, a school that has a hard time getting professional athletes to admit during NFL intros that they played there.
    4. He is a 10 year respected NBA Veteran with his career cut short due to a heart ailment, hes lucky to be alive.
    5. He was a respected front office member of the Minnesota T-Wolves
    6. He has turned around the Cyclone program that might as well have been served the death penalty. He has increased the talent to a level that hasnt been seen here in a long time by going the transfer route.
    7. In his 1st year coaching EVER with a rag tag bunch of guys he wins 16 games and instilled hope for the future after the trainwreck that pretty much has summed up ISU basketball for a decade.
    8. His 2nd team has started to gel and has stomped 2 conference opponents on the road by more than 20 points for the 1st time since 1932.

    But yet a lot of you guys think you actually know more about basketball/coaching/recruiting than he does. I find that extremely interesting



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games



    Quote Originally Posted by Prof. Frink
    My friends and I are poindexterous rather than dexterous.


    Quote Originally Posted by im4cyclones View Post
    [Anything] is easy if you are content to suck at it.

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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Scott gets plenty of touches. He just will have a hard time getting open or driving the ball without turning it over during conference play.



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    Re: Detailed Statistical Analysis through 20 games

    Quote Originally Posted by CycloneVet View Post
    I just emailed Pollard to recommend that he fire Coach Hoiberg and hire you allenj32. You obviously know more than Fred about his players that he sees everyday. Statistically speaking I bet Fred has more clout walking into a living room and closing the deal than you do. Give it a rest. Lets do a run down here about Fred Hoiberg:

    1. One of the best and most popular (if not the most popular) player in ISU history, Hes a home town kid who stayed home to become a legend.
    2. Look up in the rafters, his number is retired.
    3. He lives and breathes ISU, a school that has a hard time getting professional athletes to admit during NFL intros that they played there.
    4. He is a 10 year respected NBA Veteran with his career cut short due to a heart ailment, hes lucky to be alive.
    5. He was a respected front office member of the Minnesota T-Wolves
    6. He has turned around the Cyclone program that might as well have been served the death penalty. He has increased the talent to a level that hasnt been seen here in a long time by going the transfer route.
    7. In his 1st year coaching EVER with a rag tag bunch of guys he wins 16 games and instilled hope for the future after the trainwreck that pretty much has summed up ISU basketball for a decade.
    8. His 2nd team has started to gel and has stomped 2 conference opponents on the road by more than 20 points for the 1st time since 1932.

    But yet a lot of you guys think you actually know more about basketball/coaching/recruiting than he does. I find that extremely interesting
    No one is saying he isn't famous or a terrible coach. These are opinions based off of the statistics. What's so wrong about showing stats? Relax dude.



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