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  1. #1
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    RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Bear with me, it’s going to be long.

    Right now our RPI is 44. We don’t have any bad losses (yet… I think Drake might end up there). The problem though is that we don’t have any especially great wins.

    Right now UT is an RPI of 76. That is an expected win for a team at home wanting to make the tourney. Despite the preseason rankings of A&M, their RPI is 225. That is a borderline must win as well. We have two games left against Tech (RPI 199) that we really need to win both of for a good case. If you’re adding at home, we’re up to 4 Big 12 wins right there.

    The problem is nobody else is flat out bad. What we need to figure is what we need to do to make the tourney.

    Probably have to win 4 of six between UT (already done) and OSU, and OU at the very least. Those are two teams in the 60-80 range, and OSU is like 119. That gets us up to 8 wins. It is quite simply my opinion that we’ll need 11 Big 12 victories to be considered for the dance. Our noncon was not a killer but we didn’t really gain anything from it either. Plus, the Big 12 is nothing to get too excited about as a league this year. We beat everybody we should have (minus Drake) but didn’t beat anybody in the RPI top 100. That leaves 3 more wins total we need.

    That leaves Mizzou, KSU, KU, Baylor as the perceived top four of the conference. It is my opinion that Mizzou is greatly overrated by a terrible noncon. They didn’t lose, but they played a ~300 SOS schedule that did not challenge a team that struggles with depth and height. That will hurt them as the Big 12 season progresses. I expect one there.

    KSU, KU, and Baylor are IMO the top three. KSU is the next most vulnerable IMO, but I think we could get any of them. KU struggles with PG problems just like we do, but they have some serious turnover issues. Robinson is likely too tough at this point though. Baylor is as talented as they come but I’ll never trust Scott Drew through a whole season.

    I am flat out on the kool-aid right now but I think we can get there. We’ll probably lose one more game outside the top four than I listed but it is my hope we pick up another one from them. We need that plus probably another one in the conference tourney (since we’ll be playing a real bottom feeder on Thursday) to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. Obviously just my opinion.


    In regard to White, I would not be surprised to see him go this year if he gets some advice that he’s a first rounder. He is a unique player and I could certainly see a team in the 20’s taking a chance on him, especially a team like Golden State or somebody that really gets out and runs. Granted Golden state will be picking much higher than that. I agree that he needs some work on his game but he is a unique talent and one that may prove too tasty for the pros to lay off. Remember this is a league that drafted Julian Wright in the lottery. They go nuts for unique players.

    I am of the opinion that we’ll be okay though. We’ll get Clyburn in next year who isn’t as good as Royce has been this year but he’s a much more accomplished scorer. I don’t think we’ll need Royce’s ballhandling as much next year when Lucious is available.

    Again, I’m mainlining kool-aid here but I love how this team is set up. We still have Ejim, Babb, Bubu, and Gibson, while adding Lucious, Clyburn, Dorsey-Walker, Naing, Okoro and Long. I am extremely pleased with the decision on the transfers and I have been all year. However I think we see the foundation for the next four years laid next season, and I expect to compete for the tourney.


    Last edited by BryceC; 01-08-2012 at 03:44 PM.


  2. #2
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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    I think you nailed it on 11 wins. If we end up at 10 wins and go something like 1-7 or 2-6 against those top 4, we should have a solid RPI, but our record against the RFI Top 50 is going to ugly, 1-9 or 2-8, maybe.



  3. #3
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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    I think a RPI of 44 is good enough to be at least considered for the tournament. Like you said, we need to put some marquee wins on our resume and hopefully that starts with Mizzou on Wednesday. Our Kenpom ranking isn't terrible either at 55. We have 8 games against the upper tier of the Big XII, if we can win 3 of those, I think we'll be in pretty good shape come selection Sunday.

    At the beginning of the season, I said my goal for this team was to be in the conversation on Selection Sunday. At this rate, I think we'll get there. There is still work to do but the past two games has give me great confidence that they can do it.



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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Me too. We're miles off but there was somebody's opinion on here that these transfers didn't come here to play Mississippi Valley State. I agree there is some truth to that. The real season has started and they are coming to play. Granted that frustrates the crap out of me but it's better late than never.




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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Are the Cyclones the team that struggled against Missouri Valley at home or the team that destroyed a conference team on their home floor? That is the real question. If the team can play like they did yesterday they will be in the NCAA, if not, they will not be in the NITs. It is fun to look at RPI and all that stuff, but right now it is just win the game baby! We can worry about RPI and the other stuff when there are 4 or 5 games left in the season.



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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by BryceC View Post
    Me too. We're miles off but there was somebody's opinion on here that these transfers didn't come here to play Mississippi Valley State. I agree there is some truth to that. The real season has started and they are coming to play. Granted that frustrates the crap out of me but it's better late than never.
    Haha, that was me. And I think I was right...for they have indeed turned it up now that conference season has begun.



  7. #7
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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    I don't know if they have turned it up or if Texas and aTm really just suck a lot.



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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    aTm, texas, okie state, OU and tech all suck this year and we should get two wins aganst them all so i think we should get in the dance with that


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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    10-8 will almost surely get us into the tourney with the strength of the Big 12 this year (assuming we get a couple wins vs. KU, KSU, MU, or Baylor).



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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by eastman View Post
    aTm, texas, okie state, OU and tech all suck this year and we should get two wins aganst them all so i think we should get in the dance with that
    Never pencil in any road conference game as a win...we have a shot at beating any of those teams on the road, but none of them will be easy. Texas beat Temple by 11, who just beat Duke...Oklahoma has been a pleasant surprise this year and almost won at Cincinnati, and gave Kansas all they wanted for a half. Heck, Texas Tech gave Baylor all they wanted and Baylor has multiple NBA first round draft picks in their lineup, and is undefeated.



  11. #11
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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    It's too bad we didn't take care of business versus Drake. That was a game that we could have won, even playing semi-badly.



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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    regarding the tournament and playing early unless Texas and A&M are truly ****** or we get major injuries we should have a bye for the first day

    My predictions

    Wed

    #8 Okie St.
    #9 Oklahoma

    #7 A&M
    #10 T Tech

    I think unless we majorly crash we'll get a bye

    Thurs

    winner of 8/9
    #1 Baylor

    #5 Kansas St.
    #4 Iowa St.

    winner of 7/10
    #2 Kansas

    #6 Texas
    #3 Missouri

    that's how I think it shakes down..we tie with Kansas St. and win the tiebreaker..think the big 12 will get 5 teams in though we'll be sweating it out when the brackets come out...if we beat kansas st. in the 5 vs 4 game we should be somewhat a lock


    Last edited by IHavNoCyCash; 01-08-2012 at 05:48 PM.
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  13. #13
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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    When was the last team picked to win the conf sucked? I just can't fathom that all the coaches (and media) were that drastically wrong on AnM. No way they finish in 9th or 10th place in our league.


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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by acgclone View Post
    It's too bad we didn't take care of business versus Drake. That was a game that we could have won, even playing semi-badly.
    Screw that....I'll always trade an early season L for a late season conf W. Especially if it teaches the team something they needed to learn.


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    Re: RPI/Tournament/Royce thoughts (long)

    I see no logical way to predict what this team will do. So far, we've seen two completely different teams. If anything, we know more about the underachieving team than the one that is 2-0 in conference play.

    Love what I saw yesterday and hope it's a result of things just clicking into place.



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