Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Weather Gurus?

  1. #1
    Addict
    Points: 106,256, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 12.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    6,424
    Points
    106,256
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 109
    Given: 130

    Weather Gurus?

    What's up with our weather pattern so far? Normally I wouldn't mind it but I got some good outdoor gear for Christmas and would like to use it.


    Exaggeration is a BILLION times worse than understating.

  2. #2
    Walk On
    Points: 11,855, Level: 32
    Level completed: 87%, Points required for next Level: 95
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Irvington
    Posts
    217
    Points
    11,855
    Level
    32
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    La Nina, has to do with temps of the water in the Pacific.
    Elwynn Taylor, at ISU can fill in the answers.



  3. #3
    Starter
    Points: 22,574, Level: 46
    Level completed: 3%, Points required for next Level: 976
    Overall activity: 10.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points
    mkadl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Cornfield
    Posts
    994
    Points
    22,574
    Level
    46
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 3
    Given: 11

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    Quote Originally Posted by R1975P View Post
    La Nina, has to do with temps of the water in the Pacific.
    Elwynn Taylor, at ISU can fill in the answers.
    The Old Farmers Almanac has been spot on this fall and early winter.


    "To run this drill, Everyone line up in a circle, pair up in rows of three, alphabetically"

  4. #4
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 70,056, Level: 82
    Level completed: 18%, Points required for next Level: 1,394
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    VeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    aauummm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    In an RV Park, far away
    Posts
    3,643
    Points
    70,056
    Level
    82
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 48
    Given: 292

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    Quote Originally Posted by wartknight View Post
    What's up with our weather pattern so far? Normally I wouldn't mind it but I got some good outdoor gear for Christmas and would like to use it.
    From the Climate Prediction Center:

    SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
    OCEAN CURRENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT -1.0 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL. THESE SSTS ARE
    ACCOMPANIED BY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION THAT INDICATE
    LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. THE MEAN MAGNITUDE OF THE OBSERVED ANOMALIES
    HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE PAST MONTH OR SO, AND SUGGEST WEAK TO
    MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS. MOST CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE WEAK TO MODERATE
    LA NINA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
    RETURN TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS BY LATE SPRING. THE CLIMATE MODELS, TOGETHER
    WITH VARIOUS STATISTICAL TOOLS SUGGEST THAT LA NINA WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT
    ON THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS
    OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO NEXT SPRI
    NG.

    Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

    Here are the latest maps: Climate Prediction Center - monthly Outlook


    Last edited by aauummm; 01-02-2012 at 09:13 AM.

  5. #5
    All-Star
    Points: 23,197, Level: 46
    Level completed: 65%, Points required for next Level: 353
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran10000 Experience Points
    cloneluke80's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    West Des Moines, IA
    Posts
    1,611
    Points
    23,197
    Level
    46
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 5
    Given: 2

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    yeah, this winter is throwing me off big time, I want a few blizzards...



  6. #6
    All-Star
    Points: 43,072, Level: 64
    Level completed: 10%, Points required for next Level: 1,178
    Overall activity: 4.0%
    Achievements:
    25000 Experience PointsVeteran
    MNCYWX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Spamville, MN
    Posts
    1,232
    Points
    43,072
    Level
    64
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 72
    Given: 44

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    The North Atlantic Oscillation is also in a positive phase right now and has been for most of December. Usually a positive phase yields warmer temperatures for the middle and eastern US. The forecast for the NAO is trending negative over the next week and if it verifies you can expect temperatures a bit cooler.

    The jet stream has just been cranked way up north so far this winter and with little/no snow on the ground in the upper midwest, temperatures aren't as cool and temperatures swing a little bit higher during the day as a result.

    ... just a couple things to note.


    Last edited by MNCYWX; 01-02-2012 at 09:21 AM.
    "Science is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one's living at it." -- Albert Einstein

  7. #7
    Starter
    Points: 11,818, Level: 32
    Level completed: 82%, Points required for next Level: 132
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Pleasant Hill
    Posts
    715
    Points
    11,818
    Level
    32
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Weather Gurus?

    It isnt just La Nina that is making our winter so mild...

    There are lots of other large scale weather patterns helping out. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been stuck in phase 5 for weeks now. This typically produces warm and mild in the Midwest. This is based on thunderstorm locations in the Indian Ocean.

    We have been stuck in a positive Arctic Oscillation pattern for weeks now as well. This means the cold air is locked up to our North.

    Most importantly, a lack of snow in Iowa and points to our west and South is really helping the warm air stream here without modification.

    If we had a few inches of snow, it would easily get below zero by daybreak Tuesday morning in Central Iowa, instead it will be 10F or warmer tonight.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM