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  1. #1
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    More on the Passing Game

    I finally had some time to go through the ESPN play-by-play for the 2011 season to get some more passing stats. Basically, I combed the play-by-play for pass incompletions to figure out how often a receiver was targeted (Target%) and how often he caught the balls thrown to him (Catch%). This data isn't perfect - there are a number of plays on ESPN that just say Incomplete without saying who the target was. There is no explaination regarding the pass being thrown away intentionally, or being some kind of QB/WR miscommunication. Also, this doesn't account for sacks which are obviously pass plays with a primary receiver that never make it that far. Because of this, this data only accounts for 374 pass attempts, while the official stats count 445 pass attempts. So it's not perfect, but it's about the best I can do without rewatching every game and taking the data myself.

    Player Incompletions Catches Targets Target% Catch%
    Reynolds 40 41 81 21.66 50.62
    Horne 24 33 57 15.24 57.89
    Lenz 17 35 52 13.90 67.31
    Darks 18 20 38 10.16 52.63
    West 12 23 35 9.36 65.71
    Gary 7 21 28 7.49 75.00
    White 7 21 28 7.49 75.00
    Hammerschmidt 6 12 18 4.81 66.67
    Branderhorst 6 10 16 4.28 62.50
    Young 4 6 10 2.67 60.00
    Johnson 0 5 5 1.34 100.00
    Woody 1 4 5 1.34 80.00
    Hollis 0 1 1 0.27 100.00

    Also, anyone know how to format a table in a post?????


    Last edited by besserheimerphat; 12-24-2011 at 01:49 PM.
    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

  2. #2
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    Re:More on the Passing Game

    Sacks can also be accumulated on non-pass plays. For instance if the QB receives a bad snap then tries to run, if a defender tackles him behind the LOS is considered a sack.



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    Here you go:





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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    Thanks Agronomist! Seems like there should be some way to cut and paste a Word or Excel table without having to do a screen capture...


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    I know our receivers need to improve but I will say that a good share of Money's incompletions were deep balls that landed out of bounds or overthrown. Secondly both QBs threw slants that that caused the receiver to put himself in jeopardy.


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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    So what does this mean?.. The upperclassmen (darks and reynolds) drop more passes than the younger guys, however, they also are targeted more often and probably recieve balls that are less catchable...



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    That tells me we aren't going to lose much production for next year.



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    From the work I've seen that other people have put together for other teams, "good" receivers catch 60+% of the passes thrown to them. The "great" receivers catch 75+% of their passes.

    I also forgot to add the Yards per Target data.

    Reynolds, 8.09
    Horne, 8.42
    Lenz, 5.16
    Darks, 6.75
    West, 3.89
    Gary, 9.54
    White, 6.80
    Hammerschmidt, 5.89
    Branderhorst, 5.78
    Young, 3.44
    Johnson, 8.00
    Woody, 6.00
    Hollis, 1.00

    We really want to be greater than 7 yards per pass attempt for the offense to be effective. Guys that get more than 7 yards per target are helping our offense, and guys that get less than that aren't helping. Our official stats have us at 5.7 yards per pass attempt.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    I would like to know the stats on dropped passes. We have seen way too many of them the past few years.



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    I salute this effort of nerdery!


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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by dualthreat View Post
    That tells me we aren't going to lose much production for next year.

    Agreed. Hard to get much worse of a passing offense than what we are now.



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    I am surprise the TE stats are even that good, I know they were not targeted a lot, but it seems like they dropped a lot of passes, and I am pretty sure at least two of the drops bounced off the the TEs hands and got intercepted.



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by SwirlingFloater View Post
    I would like to know the stats on dropped passes. We have seen way too many of them the past few years.
    Agreed. Unfortunately there isn't a good way to seperate that out based on the ESPN data. I don't know if the data exists for free anywhere. I assume that the coaches have that information though. Things like drops are difficult because they are pretty subjective - is it reasonable to expect the receiver to have made the catch?

    Ultimately, to compare teams we'd need the data for each team in a consistent format to do the analysis. All we can do right now is compare athletes on our team who get playing time.

    I'm too big of a fan to keep track of it myself while games are going on, but I've debated whether or not to get the DVD season ticket to do the work myself during the week. Unfortunately I just don't have the time right now either since I'm working on my Master's while working.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    So excited for the next few years with our wide receivers! Bigger, faster, more athletic equals easier throws and easier completions for JB!



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    Re: More on the Passing Game

    What the stats tell me is that White and Gary need to be targeted more often. Both at 75% and more than 7 ypc. Of course, the more passes thrown their ways, more likely catch % will drop some.

    Also just confirms what you know from watching games - Lenz is a consistent clutch pass catcher.



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