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  1. #1
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    "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    Sorry this is so lengthy, but it brings a little perspective to this BCS Thang.

    Prefer not to see The Rematch of the Century? I've been saying it might be hard to make an argument for Oklahoma State to jump Alabama and into the BCS title game (lower case intentional).

    The consensus argument in favor of an all-SEC title game: Alabama’s only loss came to the clearcut No. 1 team, and Oklahoma State’s loss was “a bad loss.” I think the “badness” of Iowa State is exaggerated, but it’s hard to argue against the logic.

    But if anyone thinks it’s foregone conclusion to put Alabama in the title game, a few things show it isn’t cut-and-dried.

    We could go straight to the Sagarin numbers, but it's even more telling to look at what wins (and losses) truly entail.

    First, let’s compare resumes of Alabama and Oklahoma State.

    Record vs. bowl-eligible teams
    Alabama 6-1
    OSU 7-1

    Record vs. double-digit win (FBS) teams
    Alabama 1-1
    OSU 2-0

    Winning percentage of FBS opponents
    Alabama .550*
    OSU .559
    *Alabama played one FCS team (Georgia Southern, 10-2; OSU played all FBS)

    Record vs. current Top 10 BCS
    Alabama 1-1 (Arkansas)
    OSU 1-0[a]
    [a] (OU is likely to drop out of top 10 after that 44-10 loss — which is strange, since OSU beating OU would seem to actually boost the resume, but that’s another topic)

    Record vs. current Top 25 BCS
    Alabama 1-1
    OSU 5-0

    That brings us back to the "most important" point, of course: “quality of loss” for Alabama & Oklahoma State. No-brainer, right? Alabama lost in OT to what’s clearly the top team; OSU had a bad loss (in 2OT!) to a mediocre team.

    OK. I'm not about to argue that Iowa State could touch LSU head-to-head. But how much more forgiveable is Alabama's loss to LSU, vs. ISU-OSU upset?

    Here's a comparison of the opponents of LSU and Iowa State, the teams that kept ‘Bama & Okie-State from going unbeaten.

    Record of opponents (not including one FCS)**
    LSU .603 (88-58)
    ISU .591 (78-54)
    ** Including FCS would actually favor ISU, so I feel no guilt dropping it

    Number of bowl-eligible opponents:
    LSU: 7
    ISU: 8

    "But," the SEC fanatic says, "Alabama plays in the SEC West — that requires playing LSU and Arkansas. Oklahoma State didn't have to deal with that double-whammy."

    How about comparing the resumes of each team's most impressive win? (OSU: Oklahoma; Alabama: Arkansas)

    Winning pct vs. FBS:
    OU: .590
    Arkansas: .526

    Winning pct, removing the best opponent from each (OSU & LSU)
    OU: .560
    Arkansas: .475

    Wins over bowl-eligible teams:
    OU: 9
    Arkansas: 4

    Losses to non-bowl eligible teams:
    OU: 1
    Arkansas: 0

    Oklahoma State also had to play Kansas State (and won) meaning it had to face two de-facto Arkansas teams. KSU opponent pct.: .560. Record vs bowl teams: 5-2 (6-2 if you count Miami, bowl-eligible but self-imposed sanction)



  2. #2
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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    Some interesting numbers.. it doesn't appear like there's really a big difference to go off of.. very close.

    In my mind, the thing is less of "who-did-who lose against", and more of "who did they beat". In general, OSU probably had the more difficult schedule, and I think a better resume of wins.

    Maybe, since everyone agrees that LSU is the best team, we should just hand them the championship, and have OSU play Bama to decide who's 2nd.




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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    I'd have to think that the computers will put Okie State at Number 2. I saw on CBS Sportsline that currently Alabama CPU average is 2.25, and OSU CPU average is 2.75 - pretty much a dead heat. OSU destroyed a pretty strong OU team, and Alabama didn't play. OSU surely will jump them in the computers. The questions then are, did OSU impress the AP and the coaches enough, and how satisfied would voters be with a rematch? Would OSU getting a #2 rank in only one of the human polls be enough to put them ahead? I'd assume that all SEC coaches will vote for Alabama and all Big 12 coaches will vote for OSU (which is another argument for getting back to 12 teams - we're automatically down two votes on all other conferences). OSU played Arizona in the non-con so may get a few votes from PAC12. Alabama played Penn State - could they pick up any votes from the Big 10? Both human polls have OSU at #5 behind Stanford and VaTech. VaTech lost to Clemson today so they should drop. Stanford hasn't played for a couple weeks and all attention was on Oregon today in the PAC12 (who beat Stanford a few weeks ago).


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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    OK, so this LSU-Bama game was apparently the "Game of the Century". At least we have 89 more years to come up with a better game than that one.

    But really, outside of one poorly-educated region of the country, to who was that the "Game of the Century"? I doubt the ratings for that game were high in Iowa, or California, or New York, or even in Texas. The SEC gets so much hype, and a lot of it is deserved - it has a lot of great football teams. But, there is no doubt in my mind that the Big XII was a much deeper league this year than the SEC (top-heavy) and is the best football conference in America right now.

    #OSUNumber2


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    My first ISU football game - Paul Rhoads was on the sidelines.
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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    Quote Originally Posted by DSM4Cy View Post
    OK, so this LSU-Bama game was apparently the "Game of the Century". At least we have 89 more years to come up with a better game than that one.

    But really, outside of one poorly-educated region of the country, to who was that the "Game of the Century"? I doubt the ratings for that game were high in Iowa, or California, or New York, or even in Texas. The SEC gets so much hype, and a lot of it is deserved - it has a lot of great football teams. But, there is no doubt in my mind that the Big XII was a much deeper league this year than the SEC (top-heavy) and is the best football conference in America right now.

    #OSUNumber2
    We did already. The "Heroes Game."



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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    Quote Originally Posted by DSM4Cy View Post
    OK, so this LSU-Bama game was apparently the "Game of the Century". At least we have 89 more years to come up with a better game than that one.

    But really, outside of one poorly-educated region of the country, to who was that the "Game of the Century"? I doubt the ratings for that game were high in Iowa, or California, or New York, or even in Texas. The SEC gets so much hype, and a lot of it is deserved - it has a lot of great football teams. But, there is no doubt in my mind that the Big XII was a much deeper league this year than the SEC (top-heavy) and is the best football conference in America right now.

    #OSUNumber2
    I have to admit I watched a few minutes of the LSU vs. Alabama game. So boring we started playing cards and it was just background sound. I didn't even see who won until an hour or so after the game finished.



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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    I don't care what the computers say. Rematches suck! Let OSU have their shot! Also this would give ISU a chance to say that we beat the national champion.



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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    I thought I sensed a movement by the press to start justifying OSU's loss to ISU due to the loss of two "athletic family members". I would find it hard to believe that that loss had no affect myself. The pollsters may also start adding more credence to that fact which would help OSU's position.


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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    If the accident can justify OSU making the title game then I'm all for it. Please no boring SEC game.



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    Re: "Who's No. 2?" upon further inspection

    Quote Originally Posted by Skyh13 View Post
    Some interesting numbers.. it doesn't appear like there's really a big difference to go off of.. very close.

    In my mind, the thing is less of "who-did-who lose against", and more of "who did they beat". In general, OSU probably had the more difficult schedule, and I think a better resume of wins.
    This situation is very similar to the Michigan/Florida debate a few years ago - and once again, if you really look at the schedules, the debate isn't very close at all and OSU has earned the right to play LSU.

    If you look at Okie State's schedule, you see a pretty remarkable run. 1st of all, they played 6 road games to Alabama's 5. Not a big difference until you look at how they were played - Okie State had back-to-back road games on 3 separate occasions. Alabama never had to do that. Moreover if everyone remembers, the game they played against Tulsa ended at about 4 a.m. in the morning after weather delays. So the week leading to the Tex A&M game was essentially a short week as well. They then went into A&M and beat a team that had been on a roll by making a great comeback. During that stretch OSU played 4 of 5 games on the road with their only home game against KU and they beat Texas and Mizzou on the road. Their only loss was during a short week (it should be noted, in LSU's short week game against an average Mississippi State team, they struggled and needed 10 points in the final quarter to win a 19-6 game - short weeks are recipes for upsets).

    To compare, during the entire month of October, Alabama's schedule included wins against 4 SEC "power" teams that had a Total of 8 conference wins. They then had a bye week before losing AT HOME to LSU. They then followed that up with a win over an FCS team. Not one time during the year did they play teams in back-to-back weeks that had a winning record against FBS schools.

    The argument favoring Florida over Michigan was that Florida played a much tougher schedule without the easy games as Michigan only played 6 teams with winning records that year and 6 poor teams. The same can be said about Alabama. It is easier to win against good teams when you have essentially had two or more weeks to "tune-up" for the game.

    If Alabama or LSU played in the Big 12 this year, I don't believe either one would have made it through undefeated as it is nearly impossible to do that in the Big 12 without a good quarterback because you have to face such good ones on a week-to-week basis (RGIII, Jones, Klein, Weeden, Tannehill are all better than any QB in the SEC). In a one-game championship, I give the edge to a defense so I do think LSU will probably win. However, through the whole season - well just take a look and compare Green Bay and Baltimore.



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