Breaking Down OSU vs. ISU by the numbers
In conference games OSU and ISU have roughly the same number of possesions: 14/gm
OSU however scores on average 3.56 pts/poss
ISU scores on average 1.56 pts/poss
OSU average TOP/poss is: 1:46
ISU average TOP/poss is: 2:17
When each team has a chance of a possession about 4 mins has passed.
Extrapolate that out to a full game then OSU scores about: 53pts
ISU would score about: 23pts
Basically every 8 mins OSU scores 7 pts. During that time ISU scores 3 pts. Each team would have 2 possessions during that 8 mins.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that ISU would need to have long scoring drives to win to keep OSU's quick strike offense off the field. Even if ISU were able to double their pts per possession and TOP/poss they still would lose 35 to 29. This is because OSU scores so quickly and effectively.
Clearly ISU needs help from the D. But not necessarily in TO's or 3 and outs. The averages show even with a 3 and out or TO it doesn't slow down OSU's offense. What the D needs to do is to limit their possessions by not allowing them to score as quickly as they have been. OSU is going to score but the D must make sure it isn't on quick strikes. It isn't the number of touchdowns but the amount of time that OSU uses up to score. If the D can increase OSU's TOP/poss by 1 min longer it drops their pts/game by 10.
Still going to be tough for ISU to win. If ISU becomes more effecient on offense and doubles their pts/poss and the D is able to increase OSU's TOP/poss by 1min it still puts ISU down 32 to 28 going into the 4th qt. But it would give ISU a chance unlike a score of 39 to 19 which is what the current avg's would put it in the 4th.
Last edited by bosco; 11-14-2011 at 06:49 PM.
Re: Breaking Down OSU vs. ISU by the numbers
I think the best way to beat Okie St is time of possession. Keep their offense off the field. And that probably still won't be enough. They are damn good!