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  1. #1
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    Cygarin Ratings Update...

    Thoughts from Cygarin:

    The Cygarin Ratings have been updated for this week, and now that we are four games into the season, the ratings have a degree of credibility. (I have also added a small new feature on the schedule strengh page.) Some observations.....


    Conference Comparision Page.....

    Overall, it is amazing how large the "C" and "D" group is, and the fact that it includes teams ranked from 18th 61st. What this is indicating is the huge amount of parity in college football. There are far less "elite" teams, and "bad" teams than in the past.

    For the Big-12, the conference is really splitting into two distinct groups,.... the highly rated, and the poorly rated. Sadly, the teams from the South we play are in the highly rated group, while the teams from the South we don't play re in the lowly rated group.

    For the Big-10, the middle of the pack is massive. In years this happens in the Big-10,..... it's called parity, and a "competitive" league. When it happens in the Big-12, it's call mediocrity. Whatever you want to call it, it's a poor showing for the Big-10, so far.

    Schedules and Odds page......

    The odds have Iowa State winning one more game.

    Interestingly, the odds have Iowa going 7-5.


    Schedule Strengh page.....

    First of all, I added a new small feature, and included the range of "statistically" competitive games. In a nutshell, crudely 2/3rds of all games will fall with this range (+- about 14 points.) 14 points may seem like a lot, but all it takes is one team to play one touchdown ABOVE it's average performance, and the other team to play BELOW it's average performance. That ain't much!

    To me, this is pretty interesting. For example, Iowa State's win over Iowa is within this range. Also, if Iowa played Iowa State's schedule it would have four games that are outside of this range.

    Graphs....

    Some people don't like to play "ifs". I do. It doesn't change the outcome of the past games, but it CAN suggest the potential of the future. In the case of Iowa State...what IF the Clones had held that 11 point lead against Toledo. Then Iowa State would have two consecutive games of about 18 points above their first two games, and about 12 points above their current rating. That would indicate STRONG improvement. With that in mind, add 12 points to Iowa State's performance rating, and the Clones odds of winning future games moves up considerably.

    Regarding Iowa. In the past years, Iowa has had an incredible tendency of playing very eratic over the course of the season. This year is no different. If this continies, Iowa record will be highly dependent on whether they play their "good" games against good teams or bad teams. 2004 was a great example of playing good against good teams (and barely won), and bad against bad teams (and barely won). 2004 and 2005 was an example of playing bad at the wrong time (and barely losing). It should be interesting, which way the go this year.


    Overall...
    Iowa State: By all indications, Iowa State is improving significantly, but they started at rock bottom. Unfortunately they play a top-10 schedule, and it is unlikely that the impovement will have a chance to show up in the win column.

    Iowa: Iowa is showing to be a average team (so is Wisconsin), and not necessarily giving any indication of improvmement. Their single above average performance has been against Syracuse.

    Side note: UNI is rated 54th by the Sagarin Ratings, is is the highest rated D1-AA team in the country. That would put the in the middle of the pack of most BCS conferences. Northern Iowa is no slouch, even by DI standards.


    Cygarin


    Cygarin's College Sports Ratings


    Last edited by Cymaster; 09-24-2007 at 10:34 PM. Reason: Linky
    "I'm starting to think some Iowa fans heads are getting too big." -- Tigerhawk22

  2. #2
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    Re: Cygarin Ratings Update...

    So what are we?



  3. #3
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    Re: Cygarin Ratings Update...

    Interesting to see that Kansas is currently number 2 in the Big 12. Also, it's sad to see Penn State (my second team) fall below Iowa after last week's loss to Michigan.


    "THE SKIES SHALL RAIN BLOOD AND ALL THE WORLD SHALL QUAKE IN THE SHADOW OF THE CARDINAL AND GOLD!"

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