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Thread: 3 & Outs

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    3 & Outs

    If anyone is interested, I took a look at 3 and outs for this season compared to 2010 as requested by @ISUGoldenRule on twitter and put it up at www.encyclonepedia.com

    Not a lot of trends to go with the data, but the 2011 offense is on pace to exceed the number of 3 and outs by the 2010 offense.




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    Re: 3 & Outs

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    Not a lot of trends to go with the data, but the 2011 offense is on pace to exceed the number of 3 and outs by the 2010 offense.
    Yikes.


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    Re: 3 & Outs

    How about compare the 3rd down conversion rate for this Iowa State team against the previous winning seasons? That might be a better stat than this.


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    Re: 3 & Outs

    Quote Originally Posted by clonomaniac View Post
    How about compare the 3rd down conversion rate for this Iowa State team against the previous winning seasons? That might be a better stat than this.
    That could be interesting and would require a lot of time...like I said, this was done because someone asked to see it. When I finished it I thought it was interesting how game results were all over the map in comparison to 3 & outs.




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    Re: 3 & Outs

    I stand by my opinion that 3 and outs are not a direct indicator of offensive success. I think a lot of that is because all 3 and outs are not created equal and much worse things can happen than a 3 and out. A 3 and out from your own 5 is not a terrible possession by your own teams standards but it helps the opponent FP. A 3 and out from your opponents 5 is close to worst case but will most likely yield points or at worst will give them terrible field position. There is just too much variability in situations.


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    Re: 3 & Outs

    Quote Originally Posted by yaman3 View Post
    I stand by my opinion that 3 and outs are not a direct indicator of offensive success. I think a lot of that is because all 3 and outs are not created equal and much worse things can happen than a 3 and out. A 3 and out from your own 5 is not a terrible possession by your own teams standards but it helps the opponent FP. A 3 and out from your opponents 5 is close to worst case but will most likely yield points or at worst will give them terrible field position. There is just too much variability in situations.
    I agree with this entirely and that is reflected in my research from the past 17 games. The brief version is that in the past 17 games the highest percentage of 3 and outs came at Texas last year and one of the lowest (0) was against Missouri last year, when ISU was shutout.




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    Re: 3 & Outs

    ISU's offense is for the most part on pace to double last seasons pass plays of 20 and 30 yards.

    ISU had NO pass plays over 40 yards last year. Already have 6 this year.


    Last edited by Omaha Cy; 10-12-2011 at 01:36 PM.
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    Re: 3 & Outs

    Quote Originally Posted by FD Cyclone View Post
    ISU's offense is for the most part on pace to double last seasons explosive pass plays of 30 and 40 yards.
    Another good tidbit and completely in contrast to 3 and outs.




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    Re: 3 & Outs

    What is hurting other than three and outs are the number of four and five play drives that might as well be three and outs.

    Get a quick first down on a play or two and then go three and out. That kills.

    There's a relation to our tempo too. If we're going three and out and taking 1:10 off the clock that's wholly different than going three and out and taking 2:00 off the clock.



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    Re: 3 & Outs

    In terms of rank in the Big 12 and big passing plays

    ISU is ranked 9th in pass plays of 20+ yards. Not good, But......
    ISU is ranked 4th in pass plays of 30+ and 40+ yards. That's good.

    Clones rank 5th in pass plays of 50 yards or more against the rest of the conference.

    This offense certainly has a feast or famine element to it. Need to get a bit more consistency and it would probably lead to another 7-10 a game from here out.


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    Re: 3 & Outs

    Quote Originally Posted by FD Cyclone View Post
    In terms of rank in the Big 12 and big passing plays

    ISU is ranked 9th in pass plays of 20+ yards. Not good, But......
    ISU is ranked 4th in pass plays of 30+ and 40+ yards. That's good.

    Clones rank 5th in pass plays of 50 yards or more against the rest of the conference.

    This offense certainly has a feast or famine element to it. Need to get a bit more consistency and it would probably lead to another 7-10 a game from here out.
    There is definitely some truth to that. In 2011...:

    25% of drives end with 3 and outs
    21% of drives end with turnovers, and
    25% of drives end with touchdowns




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