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  1. #1
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    Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    I'm not surprised when we predict a close game against Iowa, but I'm a bit surprised that Vegas has this relatively close. A bet on ISU would win if we lose by less than 7 points (or win of course) in some of the sports books. A little shocking after the last two years. The spread originally opened at +9 and has been slowly falling all week.

    I will actually be in Vegas for the game, but I'm still undecided how to bet this--but I'm leaning Iowa. In fact, 85% of the bets place in Vegas thus far are betting on Iowa beating the spread.


    Last edited by jboffer; 09-08-2011 at 03:29 PM. Reason: clarity

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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by jboffer View Post
    I'm not surprised when we predict a close game against Iowa, but I'm a bit surprised that Vegas has this relatively close. A bet on ISU would win if we lose by less than 7 points (or win of course) in some of the sports books. A little shocking after the last two years. The spread originally opened at +9 and has been slowly falling all week.

    I will actually be in Vegas for the game, but I'm still undecided how to bet this--but I'm leaning Iowa. In fact, 85% of the bets place in Vegas thus far are betting on Iowa beating the spread.
    Then why is the spread going down? That makes no sense.



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by 1100011CS View Post
    Then why is the spread going down? That makes no sense.
    The other 15% must be betting big money.


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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    I'd jump all over Iowa here, but I just can't stomach rooting for our team to win if I'm looking at making money on the Hawks.


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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    "smart money" is on us.. hope they're right



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by cymonat View Post
    The other 15% must be betting big money.
    Vandenberg took some cash to throw it?



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Odd, I wonder if the know something that we don't.



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by CyBer View Post
    Odd, I wonder if the know something that we don't.
    Maybe they plan on drug testing all the Hawk players before the game.



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by cymonat View Post
    The other 15% must be betting big money.
    Yep. It's reverse line movement. In fact, the bets were 80-20 in favor of Iowa when the line moved from Iowa -7 to -6.5. As expected, more bets were placed on Iowa at that point and the ratio became 85-15, yet the line moved another half point in ISU's favor to Iowa -6. That means that 15% of the bettors have out-bet the other 85% so much that the line moved a full point.

    What does that mean? Well, it means that the people betting on ISU are pretty darn confident the Cyclones are going to cover the spread. The people who bet that kind of money are generally the sharp bettors who know what they're doing. They aren't always right, but they are most of the time, and that's how they justify betting all that money.

    We'll see, I hope they're right on this.



  10. #10
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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by NATEizKING View Post
    Maybe they plan on drug testing all the Hawk players before the game.
    Iowa wouldn't be able to field a team if they did that.


    I wonder if KF is their dealer?



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now




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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    Quote Originally Posted by cyfan15 View Post
    Yep. It's reverse line movement. In fact, the bets were 80-20 in favor of Iowa when the line moved from Iowa -7 to -6.5. As expected, more bets were placed on Iowa at that point and the ratio became 85-15, yet the line moved another half point in ISU's favor to Iowa -6. That means that 15% of the bettors have out-bet the other 85% so much that the line moved a full point.

    What does that mean? Well, it means that the people betting on ISU are pretty darn confident the Cyclones are going to cover the spread. The people who bet that kind of money are generally the sharp bettors who know what they're doing. They aren't always right, but they are most of the time, and that's how they justify betting all that money.

    We'll see, I hope they're right on this.
    Simple answer - Hawk fans spend the majority of their money on lot rent and have little money left over to bet with.



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    Re: Vegas has the Cyclones at +6 through +7 now

    There are probably a few people looking at how poorly Iowa did on the road last year against Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern, and how they've lost a lot of NFL talent off that team.

    I doubt these bets are for us as much as they are against Iowa. They just may not be that good.



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