Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 34
  1. #1
    Pro
    Points: 98,846, Level: 97
    Level completed: 90%, Points required for next Level: 204
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    Your first GroupVeteranCreated Album pictures50000 Experience Points
    khaal53's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    2,403
    Points
    98,846
    Level
    97
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 13
    Given: 0

    Is UNI a barometer?

    Hey guys...this just went up on my site. Tried diving into the theory that the results of the ISU vs UNI game is an indicator for how the rest of the season will go. I offered up my thoughts...what are yours?

    Comments are always welcome....10 days!

    Geeking out on Iowa State Football and Basketball - current and past: Barometer Game?




    I'm on Twitter: @khaal53

  2. #2
    Addict
    Points: 92,158, Level: 94
    Level completed: 48%, Points required for next Level: 992
    Overall activity: 33.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    cyclones500's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    8,443
    Points
    92,158
    Level
    94
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 67
    Given: 184

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    I like to read your statistical breakdowns. Usually offers fresh perspective on what are sometimes common assessments.

    The "barometer" factor is one of those. As your analysis shows, results vs. UNI/I-AA isn't a cut-and-dried indicator of season expectations.

    Too many variables, for sure — it would be different if I-AA game always came first; UNI is many times a playoff team (but not always) while other FCS teams are much worse; there is a rivalry factor for UNI; opponent's style of play can vary (a 17-7 win is similar to 42-17, if teams' strengths tilt defensive or offensive)...

    Also, even if ISU dominates the game, the final winning margin could be misleading. There's little motivation to pile up a lot of points, and it can end up as a tune-up, a chance to distribute the playing time.

    Plus, a team might play ugly but improve throughout the year — look at Iowa's close-call vs. UNI in '09 ... every other win that season was by a wider margin, vs. teams that would most likely have beaten UNI without much trouble.

    Even with all those considerations, I still think the result of the FCS game provides a general sense of what to expect, at least if it's Game 1. My preseason litmus test (which I've never attempted to "prove" after the fact) applies whether it's UNI or other FCS, and postseason expectations for the opponent don't come into play — FCS games shouldn't be a major challenge, regardless, if an ISU team is any good; and if this game is a struggle, I can't see competing very well in the Big 12.

    I follow basically the same principle, but here’s my expectation of ISU record this season, based on UNI result:
    Win by 40-plus points: 8-4/7-5*
    30-39: 7-5/6-6
    20-29: 6-6/5-7
    10-19: 5 wins maximum (4-8 more likely)
    Fewer than 10 points: 4 wins max (3-9 more likely)
    Loss: 3 max (2-10 more likely)

    If anyone wants to check this after the season, we’ll see how much water it held.

    *I’m not expecting to win 70-3. Obviously, if there were a 60-plus category, the ceiling for wins would be higher. I just doubt it will happen.



  3. #3
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 59,511, Level: 75
    Level completed: 65%, Points required for next Level: 539
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    cycloneG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Off the grid
    Posts
    3,563
    Points
    59,511
    Level
    75
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 7
    Given: 0

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    At UCONN is going to be the first barometer game.


    I don't think I'm alone when I say I'd like to see more and more planets fall under the ruthless domination of our solar system.

  4. #4
    Addict
    Points: 91,995, Level: 94
    Level completed: 40%, Points required for next Level: 1,155
    Overall activity: 38.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    acgclone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    6,270
    Points
    91,995
    Level
    94
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 57
    Given: 4

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Not really. I'd definitely say your team has problems if you lose to them, but you can certainly beat them and still not be very good.



  5. #5
    Addict
    Points: 91,995, Level: 94
    Level completed: 40%, Points required for next Level: 1,155
    Overall activity: 38.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    acgclone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    6,270
    Points
    91,995
    Level
    94
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 57
    Given: 4

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Quote Originally Posted by cycloneG View Post
    At UCONN is going to be the first barometer game.
    I would say that Iowa really is our first barometer game. We are at home, so there is no reason that we should get pounded 35-3 like we have been lately by them. I think for us to be a good team, you need to show that you're competitive with Iowa. Obviously if we win, that bodes well, but even if we lose, I'm hoping to see a fairly close game.

    If we aren't within 17 points at home versus them, we are looking at a pretty rough season with our schedule, IMO.



  6. #6
    Pro
    Points: 59,699, Level: 75
    Level completed: 77%, Points required for next Level: 351
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    DRCHIRO's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Norwalk
    Posts
    2,204
    Points
    59,699
    Level
    75
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2
    Given: 1

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    If we lose or sneak by them, I think it may be a long year. On the other hand, if we blow them out and own them (like we should), I don't think that tells us anything other than we did what we should have done to them.



  7. #7
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 59,511, Level: 75
    Level completed: 65%, Points required for next Level: 539
    Overall activity: 7.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    cycloneG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Off the grid
    Posts
    3,563
    Points
    59,511
    Level
    75
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 7
    Given: 0

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Quote Originally Posted by acgclone View Post
    I would say that Iowa really is our first barometer game. We are at home, so there is no reason that we should get pounded 35-3 like we have been lately by them. I think for us to be a good team, you need to show that you're competitive with Iowa. Obviously if we win, that bodes well, but even if we lose, I'm hoping to see a fairly close game.

    If we aren't within 17 points at home versus them, we are looking at a pretty rough season with our schedule, IMO.
    I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.


    I don't think I'm alone when I say I'd like to see more and more planets fall under the ruthless domination of our solar system.

  8. #8
    All-Star
    Points: 21,073, Level: 44
    Level completed: 36%, Points required for next Level: 577
    Overall activity: 1.0%
    Achievements:
    10000 Experience PointsVeteran

    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    Posts
    1,527
    Points
    21,073
    Level
    44
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    I don't think you can draw any conclusion or basis off the score of the game. However I do believe you can break down how well the offense/defense is by the way they play. If you decipher the plays and look at as that will be improved with time/experience or a certain player/position was plain out-manned/out-talented etc.



  9. #9
    Pro
    Points: 59,699, Level: 75
    Level completed: 77%, Points required for next Level: 351
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    DRCHIRO's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Norwalk
    Posts
    2,204
    Points
    59,699
    Level
    75
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 2
    Given: 1

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Quote Originally Posted by cycloneG View Post
    I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.

    Last year you could have called it Iowas "super bowl"



  10. #10
    Addict
    Points: 73,155, Level: 84
    Level completed: 1%, Points required for next Level: 1,695
    Overall activity: 10.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience PointsSocial
    dualthreat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    6,414
    Points
    73,155
    Level
    84
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 7
    Given: 7

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Good write up.

    Its really tough to tell if this game is a barometer game. Our guys could over look UNI, or they could come out with everything they've got-- coaching staff included.

    I thought the 2008 SDSU game was a barometer game before the season started. I laid out the same situation as cyclones500 did, and we won 44-6. I thought that should translate into a 6 or 7 win season. We forced like 6 turnovers and dominated the whole game. But we of course only won 2 games that year.

    I don't think rhoads will take UNI lightly. I see us getting ahead 21-3 or so at halftime and then tacking on a score and shutting it down. 28-10 or so. But if it doesn't happen that way, i won't be surprised. won't be discouraged either.



  11. #11
    Pro
    Points: 39,887, Level: 61
    Level completed: 65%, Points required for next Level: 463
    Overall activity: 24.0%
    Achievements:
    25000 Experience PointsVeteran

    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    2,763
    Points
    39,887
    Level
    61
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 27
    Given: 0

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    I don't think you will be able to tell too much from the first game of the season. With a new QB who is a new system it may take a couple of games to guage how good the team will be. Plus look at the Iowa UNI game two years ago. They almost lost that game and then went on to win the Orange Bowl.



  12. #12
    Addict
    Points: 73,155, Level: 84
    Level completed: 1%, Points required for next Level: 1,695
    Overall activity: 10.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience PointsSocial
    dualthreat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Ames
    Posts
    6,414
    Points
    73,155
    Level
    84
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 7
    Given: 7

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Quote Originally Posted by DRCHIRO View Post
    Last year you could have called it Iowas "super bowl"
    i know thats an old joke, but i honestly think that was the case last year. Compare how well they played that game to how ****** they played @AZ 7 days later.

    They would have beaten alabama if they didn't play ISU that day, and ISU would have beaten them if they played like they did the next week.

    That screams super bowl

    ferentz wants to put his foot on rhoad's throat so he doesn't fall behind. Obviously he is way in front now though.



  13. #13
    Rookie
    Points: 22,869, Level: 46
    Level completed: 32%, Points required for next Level: 681
    Overall activity: 5.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points
    lakesbison's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    560
    Points
    22,869
    Level
    46
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 7
    Given: 2

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    UNI is a DUMBometer !


    NDSU - BACK 2 BACK National Football Champions! Beat Kansas ST, Kansas & Minnesota 2 times, We hate Iowa and Northern Iowa, but ISU is cool with us. cya in 2014!

  14. #14
    Speechless
    Points: 183,318, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 10.0%
    Achievements:
    SocialRecommendation Second ClassVeteran50000 Experience Points
    ajk4st8's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Ankeny
    Posts
    15,213
    Points
    183,318
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 22
    Given: 93

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Wow didnt realize we are 5-3 in our last games vs UNI. ouch.



  15. #15
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 100,002, Level: 98
    Level completed: 48%, Points required for next Level: 1,048
    Overall activity: 46.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteran
    tm3308's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Corydon/Iowa City, IA
    Posts
    4,585
    Points
    100,002
    Level
    98
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 55
    Given: 43

    Re: Is UNI a barometer?

    Quote Originally Posted by cycloneG View Post
    I think it's been shown that the outcome of the Iowa game is a poor predictor for the rest of the season.
    How so? I think it's actually been relatively accurate for ISU (and often times for Iowa, as well).

    I won't dive into the pre-2000 games, as I didn't see them, and neither team was very good at the time. And I'm not including the 2001 game, since it was played at the end of the season.

    2000: ISU wins (don't know the score, but I don't figure it was too close), finishes 9-3
    2002: ISU wins against a very good Iowa team, finishes 7-5 (could very easily have been better)
    2003: Iowa wins handily, ISU finishes 2-10
    2004: very competitive game, ISU finishes 7-5
    2005: ISU wins handily, goes 7-5
    2006: ISU competitive in a loss against a 6-6 Iowa team, finishes 4-8
    2007: ISU wins an ugly game between two bad teams, goes 3-9
    2008: ISU loses just an ugly game on both sides (thanks to the weather), goes 2-10
    2009: ISU runs into a buzzsaw, but goes 6-6
    2010: Another buzzsaw, 5-7

    I think that Ferentz has indeed put more emphasis on the ISU game since Rhoads was brought in. He lost the first 5 against Mac, and the first game against Chizik. We've put the pedal to the metal in each of the last two years, as if to try and prove a point.

    But for the better part of the last decade, the game was an accurate barometer for ISU (and in many cases, Iowa as well).

    To be quite honest, I'm expecting this year's game to be a little more like the 2004 matchup. Obviously I think Iowa will win, but I think it's going to be competitive. This year it may not indicate that ISU will have a good record, as the schedule is brutal. But I think they could have a pretty solid team regardless of record.


    “Hawks tell us we have no future, and we let you know what we think of Hawk fans, which is a lower opinion all the time.” – CycloneErik 7/25/2011

    “With the exception of tm3308. He is a good contributor on this site. It is almost to the point that I question if he is actually a hawk fan. ” -- Cyclonestate78 7/25/2011

    “He broke the mold. If he wrote the OP, I would have read the whole thing.” – CycloneErik 7/25/2011

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 06:00 PM