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    Things that may prevent superconferences

    I know many disagree, but I guess I'd be a tad surprised if we end up with 4 16-team conferences. Why?

    1. Here is what I can't get over...why would a conference willingly expand to 14 or 16 and put most of the toughest teams together without knowing that other conferences will follow suit? If the SEC expands, I know its all about a money grab, but how do they know other conferences will follow suit? The only way the Pac 12 is getting to 16 is with Texas or Oklahoma, but if they're happier with an easier path to the Nat'l championship, how do you know they'll leave if they already have all the money they want?

    The SEC expanding to 14 or 16 with all others staying at 10 or 12 would be like putting 8 teams in the AL East to beat up on each other (Yanks, Bo Sox, LA Angels, and whoever else is near the best) and letting 4 teams remain in the AL Central (KC or other perenially weak teams). Not only would the toughest teams beat up on each other, but you'd have to climb over that many more teams to make it out of your conference.


    2. Read this article from the Washington Post...

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...sFJ_story.html

    I saw that people seem to be confirming that the SEC doesn't want to expand in states it already resides in, thus if it were to go to 16, I think they'd have to get into both Virginia and North Carolina to balance out A&M and Mizzou/Oklahoma. If the Big Ten followed suit, they'd want a piece of Virginia and North Carolina along with a couple of NE schools or a NE school and GA Tech.

    How do you think the folks on the East coast would feel about having Duke, UNC, and NC State in 3 different conferences? Or Virginia and VA Tech in different conferences after their legislature fought so hard for it in 2004. All of a sudden the very populous and beloved ACC is torn apart and the Big East fails to exist, leaving the Catholic schools out in the cold. Think that won't cause a few political ripples?


    What say ye?



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    There is something "special" about having a 9-12 team conference. And that "special" thing is an easier road to the NC game.



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    64 Teams is about splitting up the Vast Pool of College Football money with fewer teams and creating new massively huge revenue streams with Conf Champions, Playoff style Bowls, etc. If Iowa State must wait till the big 12 implodes, then the likelihood of being one of the 64 lessens with each non-bcs team that joins a new conference. Conferences don't kick out its membership and since the Big 12 is the only conference that seems to be talked about for extinction, we have major problem. I hope the fad fades and until something happens all we can do is try to get better and cash the checks.



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    a) I think that if you put the "64 best" teams in 4 conferences, approximately half of those "best" teams would end up with losing conference records every year. Pretty soon, those teams are not one of the "64 best".

    b) How do you handle teams that get better over time and become one of the "64 Best"? You almost need 6 quality conference champions with 2 wildcards for an 8 team playoff.


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    You make some good points, but honestly...




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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Quote Originally Posted by agcy68 View Post
    a) I think that if you put the "64 best" teams in 4 conferences, approximately half of those "best" teams would end up with losing conference records every year. Pretty soon, those teams are not one of the "64 best".

    b) How do you handle teams that get better over time and become one of the "64 Best"? You almost need 6 quality conference champions with 2 wildcards for an 8 team playoff.
    You don't. One thing that has really ticked the power players off is the rise of teams like Boise state and Utah laying claim to money the old guard sees as theirs. The goal is twofold in 64 teams. One is to lock out everyone else permanently, and the other is to finish getting completely in bed with the networks.


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Super massive black holes. Sure super conference preventer


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    The annoying thing is junk teams in the PAC-12, SEC, and Big Ten who would make it into the group of 64.



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Here's how conference alignment has worked...

    1900-2000: Geographical alignment to reduce travel cost

    2000-2010 (and present): money grab off of infinitely rising TV revenue

    But I think a shift may take place in some schools thinking: If you're Texas or OU, you have all the money you could ever want. The most important thing is championships. Why join or form a superconference if you have a much better chance of going undefeated in a 10-12 team conference?

    If you see 10 of the toughest teams in an SEC-16, let them beat up on each other, while you worry more about wins than trying to make the most money.

    The money grab started this whole thing, but eventually the schools that don't need to worry about money (who are very few), may stop the game of musical chairs.

    Like somebody said, if you're considered one of the best teams, but all of the sudden you start losing a bunch because you play the toughest teams, your perception goes down in spite of your strength of schedule, and the cycle repeats...but the opposite law holds true for teams in weaker conferences...see Boise State. Winning helps you overcome a lot of other factors.



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue52 View Post
    The annoying thing is junk teams in the PAC-12, SEC, and Big Ten who would make it into the group of 64.
    True...who is to say that Washington State, Vandy, Minnesota, Indiana, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Duke, Rutgers all deserve to be included in the top 64? Nobody, they were just in the right place at the right time. Not that ISU has a lot of room to talk, but this just shows you the whole process behind all these moves is irrational and just a money grab for most of the teams.



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    4 16-team conferences is a media invention. Even if there are super conferences, it will NEVER fit into a nice neat package like that. There may be some with less and possibly some with more. If a 16 team conference works, why not 18 or 20. Essentially becomes 2 9 or 10-team divisions where winners play each other for title and are in same conference for name only and chance at title game. (of course in basketball, they would play other division some)



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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    See, I was thinking that if the 64 team super conferences thing happened, the government could just launch a gigantic antitrust case against those schools and bring them to their knees.


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Quote Originally Posted by jsmith86 View Post
    See, I was thinking that if the 64 team super conferences thing happened, the government could just launch a gigantic antitrust case against those schools and bring them to their knees.
    Those 64 schools have enough deep pockets & influence that nothing would happen


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Quote Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
    Those 64 schools have enough deep pockets & influence that nothing would happen
    Pretty much the definition of monopoly.


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    Re: Things that may prevent superconferences

    Quote Originally Posted by jsmith86 View Post
    Pretty much the definition of monopoly.
    eh... there is 128 schools under the NCAA... thats a monopoly


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