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    Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Link

    I don't know where these preseason ratings numbers come from, but typically the point spread is within a point or two of the Sagarin Predictor. Obviously, the numbers will change as the season goes along, but this is all we have to work with for now.

    Using these numbers, and factoring in home-field advantage, here's a rough idea of point spreads for this season: (The favorites are listed first. The home teams are in caps. Bold when ISU is a favorite)

    IOWA STATE -8 vs. Northern Iowa
    Iowa -11 at IOWA STATE
    CONNECTICUT -10 vs. Iowa State
    Texas -12 at IOWA STATE
    BAYLOR -4.5 vs. Iowa State
    MISSOURI -16.5 vs. Iowa State
    Texas A&M -6 at IOWA STATE
    TEXAS TECH -14 vs. Iowa State
    IOWA STATE -2 vs. Kansas
    Oklahoma State -11.5 at IOWA STATE
    OKLAHOMA -24 vs. Iowa State
    KANSAS STATE -7.5 vs. Iowa State



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    From these point spreads, we can get an approximate Win % Expectancy for every game on the season using this. These are as follows:

    Northern Iowa -- 74%
    Iowa -- 20%
    @ UConn -- 23%
    Texas -- 18%
    @ Baylor -- 37%
    @ Missouri -- 11%
    Texas A&M -- 34%
    @ Texas Tech -- 15%
    Kansas -- 53%
    Oklahoma State -- 19%
    @Oklahoma -- 5%
    @ Kansas State -- 27%

    This adds up to an expected record of 3.36 and 8.64.



  3. #3
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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    I would have guessed we would have been favored more for UNI.



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Well done. I don't like these particular objective numbers very much, but generally speaking, I like objective numbers. Here's to the team coming out and exceeding everyone's expectations this year.


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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Keep in mind these computer ratings are nearly entirely dependent upon last years' results and statistics, it won't be until after 3-4 games that you really get a good idea from computers regarding what is going on...

    Good to look at for fun, but I don't find them too useful at this point with nothing from the current season for computers to go on.



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    I find it hard to believe that we have a better chance of beating A&M, Baylor, and OSU than TT...



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by kucyclone View Post
    Link

    I don't know where these preseason ratings numbers come from, but typically the point spread is within a point or two of the Sagarin Predictor. Obviously, the numbers will change as the season goes along, but this is all we have to work with for now.

    Using these numbers, and factoring in home-field advantage, here's a rough idea of point spreads for this season: (The favorites are listed first. The home teams are in caps. Bold when ISU is a favorite)

    IOWA STATE -8 vs. Northern Iowa
    Iowa -11 at IOWA STATE
    CONNECTICUT -10 vs. Iowa State
    Texas -12 at IOWA STATE
    BAYLOR -4.5 vs. Iowa State
    MISSOURI -16.5 vs. Iowa State
    Texas A&M -6 at IOWA STATE
    TEXAS TECH -14 vs. Iowa State
    IOWA STATE -2 vs. Kansas
    Oklahoma State -11.5 at IOWA STATE
    OKLAHOMA -24 vs. Iowa State
    KANSAS STATE -7.5 vs. Iowa State
    IMO ISU covers against:
    UNI, Iowa, UCONN, Texas, TTU, Kansas and K-State maybe baylor but IDK

    I dont see us covering against:
    Mizzou, ATM, OSU or OK

    I will get ripped for the Mizzou comment but they are stacked.


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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by SvrWxCy View Post
    Keep in mind these computer ratings are nearly entirely dependent upon last years' results and statistics, it won't be until after 3-4 games that you really get a good idea from computers regarding what is going on...

    Good to look at for fun, but I don't find them too useful at this point with nothing from the current season for computers to go on.
    So really it's not much different than any of the human polls that will come out between now and mid-September.


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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by CykoAGR View Post
    IMO ISU covers against:
    UNI, Iowa, UCONN, Texas, TTU, Kansas and K-State maybe baylor but IDK

    I dont see us covering against:
    Mizzou, ATM, OSU or OK

    I will get ripped for the Mizzou comment but they are stacked.
    I agree with you on Missouri. They return nearly everyone except Gabbert, and it sounds like their latest QB is picking things up quickly. They've had three consecutive outstanding college QBs. David Yost has been the QB coach there since 2001 - I think he knows how to develop talent.

    I also think Texas could go either way. Those guys could be Top 25 or they could be in the bottom half of the conference. I see they've got BYU and UCLA before us, so at least we should have a decent idea where they sit before playing them.


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I agree with you on Missouri. They return nearly everyone except Gabbert, and it sounds like their latest QB is picking things up quickly. They've had three consecutive outstanding college QBs. David Yost has been the QB coach there since 2001 - I think he knows how to develop talent.

    Yost has also struggled with how to attack the new fangled 3 man fronts teams are showing Mizzou as well. Having 8 months off to think about it may have changed that, but Navy put it on em in the bowl game a couple years back and it still worked last season.


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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by kucyclone View Post
    Link

    I don't know where these preseason ratings numbers come from, but typically the point spread is within a point or two of the Sagarin Predictor. Obviously, the numbers will change as the season goes along, but this is all we have to work with for now.

    Using these numbers, and factoring in home-field advantage, here's a rough idea of point spreads for this season: (The favorites are listed first. The home teams are in caps. Bold when ISU is a favorite)

    IOWA STATE -8 vs. Northern Iowa
    Iowa -11 at IOWA STATE
    CONNECTICUT -10 vs. Iowa State
    Texas -12 at IOWA STATE
    BAYLOR -4.5 vs. Iowa State
    MISSOURI -16.5 vs. Iowa State
    Texas A&M -6 at IOWA STATE
    TEXAS TECH -14 vs. Iowa State
    IOWA STATE -2 vs. Kansas
    Oklahoma State -11.5 at IOWA STATE
    OKLAHOMA -24 vs. Iowa State
    KANSAS STATE -7.5 vs. Iowa State
    i pray to the god of skinny people that the UNI vs ISU spread is 8 pts in vegas, it will fund the rest of the season for me.



  12. #12
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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    I keep thinking that the TAMU line should be 16 not 6.



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by ajk4st8 View Post
    I keep thinking that the TAMU line should be 16 not 6.
    Agreed. I think the TTech game will be closer than the A&M game for sure. I think UConn should be 7.5 and KState should be 4.5



  14. #14
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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by Tedcyclone View Post
    i pray to the god of skinny people that the UNI vs ISU spread is 8 pts in vegas, it will fund the rest of the season for me.

    They are supposed to be pretty good, however UNI good and Iowa State good are two different things.



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    Re: Sagarin Ratings / Pre-Season Point Spreads

    Quote Originally Posted by FD Cyclone View Post
    Yost has also struggled with how to attack the new fangled 3 man fronts teams are showing Mizzou as well. Having 8 months off to think about it may have changed that, but Navy put it on em in the bowl game a couple years back and it still worked last season.
    This is exactly why I think we pull out the Mizzou game this year.

    Yost = great college QB coach but not a good offensive coordinator.

    His in game adjustments leave a lot to be desired and he appears to ride the arm of his QB too often rather than rely on the run game.



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