Likelihood of Wins In Order
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  1. #1
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    Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Because I'm bored and can't wait for football, I'm gonna try this, and welcome you to discuss and provide your own.

    Take the ISU schedule...

    vs. Northern Iowa
    vs. Iowa
    @ Connecticut
    vs. Texas
    @ Baylor
    @ Missouri
    vs. Texas A&M
    @ Texas Tech
    vs. Kansas
    vs. Oklahoma State
    @ Oklahoma
    @ Kansas State

    ...and rank the 12 games in order of how likely it is that ISU gets a win, from most to least. Also, "draw the line" between games ISU will win and the ones we'll lose.

    Here's mine:

    1) vs. Northern Iowa
    2) vs. Kansas
    3) @ Connecticut
    4) vs. Iowa
    5) @ Kansas State
    6) vs. Texas

    ---wins above, losses below---

    7) @ Baylor
    8) @ Texas Tech
    9) @ Missouri
    10) vs. Texas A&M
    11) vs. Oklahoma State
    12) @ Oklahoma

    Now it's your turn.

    (P.S. If I'm right, the season may be particularly interesting... starting out 4-0 only to fall to 4-4... and entering our last game at 5-6 needing a W to get bowl eligible.)



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    I agree but the only thing I would switch is Texas and Baylor. I think we have a good chance at beating Baylor on the road as long as our defense plays well.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    FWIW - I dreamt last night that we we up by 14 in the 2nd half, then pulled off the victory by 1 point against Iowa. Also, I offered to pay for 2 tickets for Hawkeye fans to come to Ames - but they declined because they weren't sure they would win. Even though we've been blown out 2 straight years, I think the line will be 10 points or less this year.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Quote Originally Posted by awd4cy View Post
    I agree but the only thing I would switch is Texas and Baylor. I think we have a good chance at beating Baylor on the road as long as our defense plays well.
    I never follow FB close enough but I only really see 2 or maaybe 3 wins because I don't know enough about how or if we're progressing as a program. I was able to watch a few games last year, but unlike BB I am totally lost on recruiting,talent level of opposition,key players, etc. mainly due to no media here except CF. Here's hoping I grossly underestimated us!!


    Clone4ever

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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Quote Originally Posted by CyFan61 View Post
    Because I'm bored and can't wait for football, I'm gonna try this, and welcome you to discuss and provide your own.

    Take the ISU schedule...

    vs. Northern Iowa
    vs. Iowa
    @ Connecticut
    vs. Texas
    @ Baylor
    @ Missouri
    vs. Texas A&M
    @ Texas Tech
    vs. Kansas
    vs. Oklahoma State
    @ Oklahoma
    @ Kansas State

    ...and rank the 12 games in order of how likely it is that ISU gets a win, from most to least. Also, "draw the line" between games ISU will win and the ones we'll lose.

    Here's mine:

    1) vs. Northern Iowa
    2) vs. Kansas
    3) @ Connecticut
    4) vs. Iowa
    5) @ Kansas State
    6) vs. Texas

    ---wins above, losses below---

    7) @ Baylor
    8) @ Texas Tech
    9) @ Missouri
    10) vs. Texas A&M
    11) vs. Oklahoma State
    12) @ Oklahoma

    Now it's your turn.

    (P.S. If I'm right, the season may be particularly interesting... starting out 4-0 only to fall to 4-4... and entering our last game at 5-6 needing a W to get bowl eligible.)
    Haven't looked at the season this way, but makes for a very trickey season. I'd say the only teams that are real solidly in their spots on that list are 1,2,11, & 12. All the rest are at least somewhat interchangable. I think I'd slide Iowa down a little, but its a slipery slope. really hard to say. I'd also swap TX and baylor. TX will be motivated thats for sure.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    If we don't win it's going to be a looong season:

    1) UNI
    2) KU

    Roughly a coin toss:

    3) UConn
    4) K St

    Show up and chances are we are in it:

    5) Tech
    6) Iowa
    7) Texas
    8) Baylor
    9) Ok St
    10) Mizzou
    11) A&M

    No way, no how:

    12) OU

    Haven't picked the season game-by-game yet, but will likely end up with 4 or 5 W's; mostly due to schedule.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Need one more category and I pretty much agree with j4state.

    Unlikely but small chance:
    Oklahoma State
    A&M
    Missouri



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Quote Originally Posted by IcSyU View Post
    Need one more category and I pretty much agree with j4state.

    Unlikely but small chance:
    Oklahoma State
    A&M
    Missouri
    Started out that way then combined them. Those three are tough but they don't scare me as much as they maybe should.

    For the Okie St game the x-factor is going to be Jack Trice Stadium. I could actually see us pulling it off.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Quote Originally Posted by j4state View Post
    If we don't win it's going to be a looong season:

    1) UNI
    2) KU

    Roughly a coin toss:

    3) UConn
    4) K St

    Show up and chances are we are in it:

    5) Tech
    6) Iowa
    7) Texas
    8) Baylor
    9) Ok St
    10) Mizzou
    11) A&M

    No way, no how:

    12) OU

    Haven't picked the season game-by-game yet, but will likely end up with 4 or 5 W's; mostly due to schedule.
    Agreed. This is how I would rank our chances.



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    Re: Likelihood of Wins In Order

    Should wins
    Northern Iowa
    Kansas

    Toss-ups

    UCONN
    KSU

    Will need a break
    TTech
    Baylor
    OSU
    Iowa
    Texas

    Will need more than a few breaks
    Missouri
    aTm
    Oklahoma

    I'll be thrilled with 6-6, but think 5-7 is more likely.



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