Results 1 to 5 of 5
  1. #1
    All-Star
    Points: 34,163, Level: 56
    Level completed: 93%, Points required for next Level: 87
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    ShopTalk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Posts
    1,513
    Points
    34,163
    Level
    56
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 16
    Given: 32

    2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

    I predict the conference records for each team using Jaretac's big 12 conference W-L % adjusted for 2010 season variance (http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...-big-12-a.html):

    Final 2011 conference Prediction adjusted for 2010 variance:
    Hist. Avg. W % (+/-Variance)= W - L
    OU = 74% (--) = 7 - 2
    MU = 50% (+2) = 7 - 2
    OSU = 46% (+2) = 6 - 3
    ISU = 30% (+2) = 5 - 4
    A&M = 55% (+1) = 5 - 4
    KSU = 62% (-1) = 5 - 4
    UT = 73% (-2) = 5 - 4
    BU = 14% (+2) = 3 - 6
    TTU = 59% (-2) = 3 - 6
    KU = 31% (-2) = 1 - 8

    Details
    This is in conference estimate only.

    Above formula works like this: (9 games in conference x win %) +/- Variance = Wins

    Example: UT = 9 x .73 = 6.57 which rounds up to 7 wins - 2 variance = 5 wins. So total in conference record = 5 - 4

    Using a statistics bell curve with overall history against remaining Big 12 teams being the "norm", I estimate all teams will fall within a +/- 2 win range of the historical average.

    Here's my scale:
    0- 9% variance = flat
    10-19% variance = +/- 1
    20 - 29% or greater variance = +/- 2
    Use Conference variance without NU & CU if different for final.

    Using this formula, ISU is the biggest winner in the new conference, jumping +2 in variance - the only team to jump +2.


    2010 Conference Records as-is:
    Oklahoma (75%) 6-2 12-2 --
    Oklahoma St (75%) 6-2 11-2 +2
    Texas A&M (75%) 6-2 9-4 +2
    Missouri (75%) 6-2 10-3 +2
    Baylor (50%) 4-4 7-6 +2
    Texas Tech (38%) 3-5 8-5 -2
    Kansas State (38%) 3-5 7-6 -2
    Iowa State (38%) 3-5 5-7 --
    Texas (25%) 2-6 5-7 -2
    Kansas (13%) 1-7 3-9 -1

    2010 conference Records without NU and CU:
    OSU (86%) 6 – 1 +2
    MU (83%) 5 – 1 +2
    A&M (71%) 5 – 2 +1
    OU (67%) 4 – 2 - 1
    ISU (50%) 3 - 3 +2
    KSU (50%) 3 – 3 -1
    BU (43%) 3 - 4 +2
    TT (29%) 2 – 5 - 2
    TU (14%) 1 – 6 - 2
    KU (0%) 0 - 6 - 2


    Last edited by ShopTalk; 07-03-2011 at 08:44 PM.

  2. #2
    Addict
    Points: 85,340, Level: 90
    Level completed: 89%, Points required for next Level: 210
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    SocialVeteran50000 Experience Points
    Erik4Cy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    West Des Moines, IA
    Posts
    7,104
    Points
    85,340
    Level
    90
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 220
    Given: 163

    Re: 2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

    5-7 (3-5) is exactly what I would predict myself based off practically nothing but intuition. It's good to see a mathematical breakdown of those odds off previous statistics. Good work guys!


    ISU license plates, just $50 at: http://www.iamvd.com/ovs/plates/index.htm
    "I am so proud to be your football coach!" - Paul Rhoads

    HOI-BALL!!!

  3. #3
    All-Star
    Points: 34,163, Level: 56
    Level completed: 93%, Points required for next Level: 87
    Overall activity: 2.0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran25000 Experience Points
    ShopTalk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Posts
    1,513
    Points
    34,163
    Level
    56
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 16
    Given: 32

    Re: 2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

    No, this shows ISU 5 -4 in conference only. You're looking at the 2010 record that I based variance calculations on...look at the very top listing.

    Overall record, I'd guess ISU is 2 - 1 out of conference for a total as shown below:

    ISU 7 - 5 (5 - 4)

    Looking just at in conference minus NU and CU ISU gains + 2 because both NU and CU were typically losses. Don't know if this holds up or not but if it does, I would expect the in conference wins to come from those shown lower than ISU and would guess the wins to be: KSU, UT, BU, TTU and KU.

    ISU could just as easily end up 6 - 6 ( 4 - 5) with most likely UT the extra loss with KSU next most likely.

    That said, a 5 - 7 ( 3 -5 ) repeat of last year's record would still be respectable with this schedule and the most likely estimate by fans so far based on earlier polls.


    Last edited by ShopTalk; 07-03-2011 at 08:53 PM.

  4. #4
    Legend
    Points: 425,396, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 30.0%
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsOverdriveVeteran
    State43's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    10,696
    Points
    425,396
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 178
    Given: 153

    Re: 2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

    ISU is not winning 5 games in conference as much as I would love to see it...



  5. #5
    Bench Warmer
    Points: 20,141, Level: 43
    Level completed: 33%, Points required for next Level: 609
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran10000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    274
    Points
    20,141
    Level
    43
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    Re: 2011 Conference W-L Prediction on Stats

    Something about these calculations seems fishy. I don't think you can just take out Nebraska and Colorado (usually losses) and say we'll be +2 becuase this assumes they'll be replaced with wins.

    If you take our win percentage against Nebraska, Colorado, and one non-conference game, and replace it with our win percentage against three south teams, I imagine you'll find that statistically, our win percentage with the new schedule should go down.



Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM