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    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    This is a write-up by a buddy of mine who's an ISU statistics grad and statistician by trade. Enjoy.

    Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus McIllece Sports



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Looks like two wins.


    CFH HMagic bball season next year.
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  3. #3
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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wesley View Post
    Looks like two wins.
    So is that your prediction based on his analysis? It wasn't necessarily a rosy picture, but it wasn't all gloom and doom either.



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Nice, thanks for sharing. While I'm more optimistic about the 2011 season than this writer, I appreciate it when people back up their predictions with stats. It's frustrating to see SI or ESPN come out with a 3-9 or 4-8 prediction for ISU every year, and not really justify the prediction.


    www.widerightnattylite.com/ - All the news on the team that gives you fits

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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    That's a fair write up. I'm more optimistic (not a lot) but he's definitely done his homework and put a lot of thought in.


    In 1984, I was hospitalized for approaching perfection.

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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Also loved the predictable "CLOWNS SUCK!" in all-caps in the comments. I think there's one semi-literate guy out there who had someone set up an "Iowa State" google alert for him, and he just goes around trolling different websites.


    www.widerightnattylite.com/ - All the news on the team that gives you fits

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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Does your friend write for Athlon?




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    (They just disappear offseason)


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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by Aclone View Post
    Does your friend write for Athlon?
    I don't know if this is a serious question or not, but no, I do not write for Athlon. I did interview in Bristol and considered a job with a new analysis team ESPN created last winter. I wrote this ISU preview mostly for my good friend psychlone99, who appreciates statistically-based perspectives of college football.

    Hope most of you enjoyed the read.



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by sdillon500 View Post
    Also loved the predictable "CLOWNS SUCK!" in all-caps in the comments. I think there's one semi-literate guy out there who had someone set up an "Iowa State" google alert for him, and he just goes around trolling different websites.
    I didn't care for that comment. Pointless.



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    that looked like a really good assessment. Give rhoads 1 upset and we'll be 5-7 ...



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    This guy's a cockeyed optimist - 6% chance of winning in Norman.



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Nice job. While I loved the players that have graduated and moved on, it was the 111th ranked offense, so maybe it's not so hard to replace as we may think. I think we win anywhere from 5 to 7 games.



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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by jjmcillece View Post
    I don't know if this is a serious question or not, but no, I do not write for Athlon. I did interview in Bristol and considered a job with a new analysis team ESPN created last winter. I wrote this ISU preview mostly for my good friend psychlone99, who appreciates statistically-based perspectives of college football.

    Hope most of you enjoyed the read.
    In that case, what were/would have been your odds last May of ISU winning in Austin the ensuing Fall?




    Paul Rhoads' players never quit.
    (They just disappear offseason)


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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Quote Originally Posted by jjmcillece View Post
    . . . Hope most of you enjoyed the read.
    Wanted to thank you for your serious, no-nonsense approach to the analysis.

    What gives we Cyclones fans hope, and keeps us returning season after season, are the intangibles. IMHO, the most important intangible we have is CPR. He brings something important to program-building (we hope!).


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    Re: Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

    Thank you for sharing. I thought it was an interesting, objective view of ISU's chances of winning based on our "past" performances. The reason I hold out greater hope is because of the intangibles that new talent used in a new ways can bring to a program; good coaches turn those intangibles into wins. That's how teams like Cincinnati crawled from obscurity to a top 5 team in just a couple years under Brian Kelly.

    I'm not a Cinci or Brian Kelly fan but if you'd have statistically evaluated Cincinnati over those years (06 - 09) they would have predicted a slightly better or slightly worse team that the previous year in each of those seasons. With new talent and better schemes, they exceeded their past performances. In my opinion, there are too many unpredictable variables in college sports to only rely on the past.

    Thanks again for the thoughts. It was a very interest, objective way of looking at it. I'm just hoping for more like most on here.



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