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    Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Interesting read from Yahoo Sports, although a lot of it seems like common sense. Tom Herman is also quoted in the article

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Herman
    "If you win the turnover margin and the explosive-play margin, you will win almost all of the games. There was an NFL study about 10 years ago that looked over five seasons. And teams that won those two areas won 97.5 percent of the time. For us, an explosive pass is 17 yards or more and an explosive run is 12 yards or more. Some people differ. We have five goals each week: win turnover margin; win explosive plays; be great on first down, and that means making 4 yards or more 50 percent of the time; be 45 percent or more on third down; score 80 percent of the time in the red zone, and we want touchdowns 67 percent of the time. If we win three out of the five, we are undefeated in the six years I have been an offensive coordinator."



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Pretty much everyone mentions turnover margin. The thing that's difficult about turnover margin though is fumbles. Once the ball is on the ground, its basically a coin-flip to see who gets it. Studies have shown it's literally 50/50 odds as to which team recovers fumbles. So really I think it's more about getting INTs and getting a little lucky when the ball hits the ground. Even if you force many more fumbles than average, you will only get about half of them so the average TO margin stricly from fumbles is close to zero. Other studies have shown that while turnovers as a whole can have positive correlation with previous years, fumbles have no correlation.


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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    Pretty much everyone mentions turnover margin. The thing that's difficult about turnover margin though is fumbles. Once the ball is on the ground, its basically a coin-flip to see who gets it. Studies have shown it's literally 50/50 odds as to which team recovers fumbles. So really I think it's more about getting INTs and getting a little lucky when the ball hits the ground. Even if you force many more fumbles than average, you will only get about half of them so the average TO margin stricly from fumbles is close to zero. Other studies have shown that while turnovers as a whole can have positive correlation with previous years, fumbles have no correlation.
    I think Herman's point was that to win, you need to protect the ball. If ISU doesn't turn the ball over, and Nebraska turns the ball over 8 times, ISU has a great shot of winning.



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    I said turnover margin was the key stat for the 2011 season here http://www.cyclonefanatic.com/forum/...ml#post2249053

    Great catch on the key stats to measure and great to see that I was 1/5th of the correct formula.

    From what I could see from last year, it was the most important factor of the formula overall last year and likely will be the same this year so let's hope turnover margin is at or above the levels it was in 2010 in 2011.



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    I wouldn't be surprised if the 2008 offense won 3 out of Herman's 5 categories and didn't win the game at least once (maybe twice).

    Thanks Chizik...



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    "The team that scores the most points almost always wins."



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by CtownCyclone View Post
    I think Herman's point was that to win, you need to protect the ball. If ISU doesn't turn the ball over, and Nebraska turns the ball over 8 times, ISU has a great shot of winning.
    I agree and the point still holds - win TO margin and you increase your odds of winning. The next question then is how to you improve your TO margin, and I think part of the answer is "not by relying on fumble recoveries."

    Even in Lincoln two years ago with the +8 margin, didn't we have 5 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries? I think Nebraska had 2-3 times where they recovered their own fumble. So overall we were +8, but just on fumbles we were 3/5 or 3/6 - about 50/50. I'm going totally on memory here so the numbers might be a little off...


    You can spend a lot of time and money picking out the perfect floral bouquet for your date ... but you're probably better off checking if you have bad breath and taking the porn out of the glove compartment.

    The moral: you gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.

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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    I agree and the point still holds - win TO margin and you increase your odds of winning. The next question then is how to you improve your TO margin, and I think part of the answer is "not by relying on fumble recoveries."

    Even in Lincoln two years ago with the +8 margin, didn't we have 5 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries? I think Nebraska had 2-3 times where they recovered their own fumble. So overall we were +8, but just on fumbles we were 3/5 or 3/6 - about 50/50. I'm going totally on memory here so the numbers might be a little off...
    I think it was the other way around and there were 5 fumbles. The only interceptions I remember were the crazy Sims deflection pick, and then the 2 at the end of the game (O'Connell and Smith).




    I'm on Twitter: @khaal53

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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    some interesting stats for sure. but sometimes people get a little ahead of themselves with odds making. A former NFL player spoke to my HS team and said "if you score a TD on the first possession of the game and the first of the second half, and hold them to 0 points on their first possessions of each half, you have a 90% chance of winning."

    I thought, just 90%? I mean, you're +14 on points with momentum in each half...
    People like to break down statistics into obvious circumstances. Yes- don't give the ball to the other team. Yes- get lots of yards and make big plays. Who would have thought?



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    Re: Coaches Pick the most important statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by besserheimerphat View Post
    Pretty much everyone mentions turnover margin. The thing that's difficult about turnover margin though is fumbles. Once the ball is on the ground, its basically a coin-flip to see who gets it. Studies have shown it's literally 50/50 odds as to which team recovers fumbles. So really I think it's more about getting INTs and getting a little lucky when the ball hits the ground. Even if you force many more fumbles than average, you will only get about half of them so the average TO margin stricly from fumbles is close to zero. Other studies have shown that while turnovers as a whole can have positive correlation with previous years, fumbles have no correlation.
    Although it may be 50/50 on fumble recoveries, clearly, if you make the other team put the ball on the ground a bunch and your team doesn't, it is going to contribute to TO margin.



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