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    Keys to a Successful Season

    I don't know if this is of great interest to most or not, but I put it together so I may as well share it.

    I went back to 1959 (the first year in the Big 8) as a basis for crunching all of these numbers. Really, I could’ve just as easily gone back to 1989 or 1949 but I wanted to keep the numbers as relevant as possible to today’s game. I calculated the rush yards per attempt, pass yards per attempt, and yards per play for both the offense and defense for the past 52 seasons.

    I then set benchmarks for each category. I used four yards per attempt for rushing, seven yards per attempt for passing, and five yards per play for total offense. I also compared the differential in each season between ISU and opponent in each of those areas (i.e. did ISU outgain the opponent on yards per pass play). I then compared how each season with a record of .500 or better fell into those categories.

    There are so many factors that come in as outside variables that cannot be attributed for during an exercise like this, but hopefully there is still some substance to the analysis. An example of skewing data from the truth: A defense appearing to be stout against the pass because they are so porous against the run that the opponent has no need to try and throw the ball.

    YPP = Yards per Play
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    Last edited by khaal53; 04-19-2011 at 09:09 AM.


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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    How about if we just score more points than the other team?


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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Ya know, a lot of those stats seem like common sense, but it is interesting to look at the comparison.

    ISU has had more success when outrushing the opponent than out-throwing them. It makes sense because controlling the clock with the groundgame usually helps the defense.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Most telling stat: 52 years, with only 19 at .500 or better.


    Last edited by VeloClone; 04-19-2011 at 12:12 PM.
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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by cyhiphopp View Post
    ISU has had more success when outrushing the opponent than out-throwing them. It makes sense because controlling the clock with the groundgame usually helps the defense.
    The Big 12 is still a passing league, but there has been a little shift the last couple years as programs are running more. For ISU to compete with the pass happy teams at the top of the conference, they will need to outrush them. ISU can not fight fire with fire...so they must run the ball. ISU racked up 2,340 yards on the ground in 09. That's pretty dang good from a national perspective.

    Northwestern for quite a while has masked their deficiencies by being the passing team of the Big 10. It separated them from the rest of the pack and they excelled at it. NW seems to routinely beat the bottom half, and occasionally beats the top tier.

    I never understood why Walden scrapped his passing attack, and decided he would run the option just like the powers of the conference at the time(NU,OU,CU). On the surface it made no sense to me.

    As good as Kansas was in 07/08...they got absolutely HAMMERED in all 6 games vs OU/UT/TTU. Even at their level of offensive play they could not hold a candle to the conference elite.
    Mizzou had the same problems. Once they developed an elite defense in the conference the last couple years, they were able to beat OU...otherwise OU/UT just blasted them.


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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    I know I will get trashed for this, but I think the key this year for ISU is the Iowa game. Beating my Hawks would set the tone for this team the rest of the year. For one it is beating the in-state and most hated rival. Two, I think it would be a big mental victory for ISU as they go and compete in the big 12 this year. Starting 4-0 could do wonders for this team. Beat the Baylors, Missouri's, k-states, and your looking at a heck of a season for CPR and the clones.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye1984 View Post
    I know I will get trashed for this, but I think the key this year for ISU is the Iowa game. Beating my Hawks would set the tone for this team the rest of the year. For one it is beating the in-state and most hated rival. Two, I think it would be a big mental victory for ISU as they go and compete in the big 12 this year. Starting 4-0 could do wonders for this team. Beat the Baylors, Missouri's, k-states, and your looking at a heck of a season for CPR and the clones.
    Beating Iowa would be huge for early momentum, that is for sure. Not because it's Iowa, but because it would be an early win against a quality opponent.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye1984 View Post
    I know I will get trashed for this, but I think the key this year for ISU is the Iowa game. Beating my Hawks would set the tone for this team the rest of the year. For one it is beating the in-state and most hated rival. Two, I think it would be a big mental victory for ISU as they go and compete in the big 12 this year. Starting 4-0 could do wonders for this team. Beat the Baylors, Missouri's, k-states, and your looking at a heck of a season for CPR and the clones.
    I can see that. Getting the Hawk Monkey off of Rhoads's back would be huge. But, I think Iowa will still be a better team this year even with all of the heavy losses so I don't think the season will hinge on that game. (the huge losses in 09/10 were devastating and the effects drug on into the next few weeks imo)

    I think the benchmark for the season will be the UConn game. The talent level is more comparable to ISU and a win on the road would be a huge confidence booster.

    That's depressing that 86% of the time since 1959 the clones have been outgained on offense. Yikes.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    khaal53 great stat chart and a lot of work. Props.

    Would it be "easy" to add T/O margin to the chart? Certainly that has been a hallmark of ISU under Mac through Rhoads and a key way for the D to also get off the field and give the O another shot at "improving the stats".

    There's been only a few years that I can recall ISU really having a Defense in the top 40. I'd bet those years also match up pretty well with the winning records, but how much did T/O margin play into that?


    hawkeye1984, I don't know if you realize it yet, but ISU now only has 3 non-conference games a year. So yes, beating Iowa takes on a greater importance every year before conference play.

    For ISU to start the year 4-0, I think most ISU fans and certainly national fans would be shocked. That would mean wins over UNI, Connecticut, Iowa and Texas. I'll take that to start, as long as everyone stays healthy.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkeye1984 View Post
    I know I will get trashed for this, but I think the key this year for ISU is the Iowa game. Beating my Hawks would set the tone for this team the rest of the year. For one it is beating the in-state and most hated rival. Two, I think it would be a big mental victory for ISU as they go and compete in the big 12 this year. Starting 4-0 could do wonders for this team. Beat the Baylors, Missouri's, k-states, and your looking at a heck of a season for CPR and the clones.
    I agree. ISU has curled up in the fetal position the last couple of years against Iowa. Iowa backed off too, they could have named the score. We have not scored a touchdown on their starters since 2006!!! Think about that for a minute. Iowa State has to show up this year and they have to make a game of it somehow. ISU used to rely on Iowa taking the game lightly or should I say not as serious as ISU, but that is not the case anymore. KF takes this game VERY seriously. Any Hawk fan that thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

    My main concern is the game is early in the year. We will have a new qb and so far in Herman's offense, things don't start gelling until after the first month. Will our offense be fluid enough that early in the season, or is it to complicated for our guys to get it going that fast? I hope we win that game, but I am certainly not counting on it at all. More than likely we will pull off a win were not supposed to in conference later in the year.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by delt4cy View Post
    That's depressing that 86% of the time since 1959 the clones have been outgained on offense. Yikes.
    Just a reminder, albeit not that different, they have been ougained on a per play basis not overall yards. Results of that analysis could be the same, better, or worse.




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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by ShopTalk View Post
    khaal53 great stat chart and a lot of work. Props.

    Would it be "easy" to add T/O margin to the chart? Certainly that has been a hallmark of ISU under Mac through Rhoads and a key way for the D to also get off the field and give the O another shot at "improving the stats".

    There's been only a few years that I can recall ISU really having a Defense in the top 40. I'd bet those years also match up pretty well with the winning records, but how much did T/O margin play into that?
    Thanks. I wish I could easily get the turnover margin. As it sits, I only have data for interceptions....no fumbles. I could do some tinkering with the interception info, but it would obviously be incomplete without factoring in fumbles.




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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by delt4cy View Post
    That's depressing that 86% of the time since 1959 the clones have been outgained on offense. Yikes.
    Huh?

    If you look at the two bottom lines, the total # of seasons is 18 + 34 = 52.

    ISU out-gained the competition in total offense 18/52 seasons = 35% rounded up.

    ISU has less offense than the competition 34/52 = 65% of the time.

    There were some really pathetic decades in there and the last decade has been much better than the lost decades of 80's and 90's.

    I'm guessing if you look at just 2000 - 2010, this is closer to 50/50.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    Thanks. I wish I could easily get the turnover margin. As it sits, I only have data for interceptions....no fumbles. I could do some tinkering with the interception info, but it would obviously be incomplete without factoring in fumbles.

    What about year end total defense rankings? Is that available? That might add a bit to see how much the better offensive years match up - or not - together.



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    Re: Keys to a Successful Season

    Quote Originally Posted by ShopTalk View Post
    What about year end total defense rankings? Is that available? That might add a bit to see how much the better offensive years match up - or not - together.
    Honestly, I think that would be the best analysis. How was ISU's defensive in a given year when compared to it's peers in the same season? That is a much more relative way to look at things than to compare the passing yardage given up in 2010 to the passing yardage given up in 1960.

    However, I don't have those ratings and I'm not sure how I could even go about it. I could find the last 10 to 15 years maybe, but beyond that would be very difficult if not impossible.

    Thanks for the suggestions.




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