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    ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Reading the scrimmage complaints, too many are about Tom Herman "not measuring up". I think he's the best O coordinator ISU has seen for a long, long time.

    To me, the two key stats are Scoring Offense and Turnover Margin, which typically positively impacts Scoring Offense when positive so I'll start there.

    So here's the stats going all the way back to Seneca Wallace's last year:

    Scoring Offense (Rank/Avg Pts per game)
    2010 - 97 / 22
    2009 - 103 /21
    2008 - 59 / 25
    2007 - 111 /18
    2006 - 92 / 19
    2005 - 50 /28
    2004 - 97 / 21
    2003 - 116 / 14
    2002 - 46 / 29

    Turnover Margin (Rank / Avg net per game)
    2010 - 30 / .50
    2009 - 36 / .31
    2008 - 40 / .33
    2007 - 101 / -.58
    2006 - 87 / -.42
    2005 - 7 / 1.17
    2004 - 12 / .83
    2003 - 94 / -.50
    2002 - 66 / -.07

    What this shows is ISU's Offense has an average points per game range of 14 - 29 historically. The Mean (1/2 way between both extremes) is 21.5 points. That is exactly where Tom Herman's two years have been. Right at the mean.

    Also, the highest scoring averages per game came in years when ISU's TO Margin was stellar or QB was Seneca Wallace - 2005 ISU was 7th in the nation in TO Margin and totaled 28 points. This is primarily a defensive contribution to the offense. You don't get a positive TO margin without interceptions or fumbles recovered.

    Even in TO Margin, Tom Herman's first two years are also consistently above average.

    All of this with as many have mentioned a very average WR corps and inconsistent passing game.

    I watched Rice vs. Texas the year before ISU hired Herman. Rice was beat down as they typically are by Texas and clearly out-manned at all positions. But the O was crisp and did put up like 28 points on Texas, which for Rice is really good.

    Herman's first two ISU teams each did something extraordinary: Beat Texas (never happened before) and Beat Nebraska at Nebraska (got to go way back for the last time that happened).

    Edit: And you know what, Putting up 52 points on Texas Tech was pretty sweet. When's the last time an ISU team put up 52 points on a bowl bound South Division Team?

    The FB roster is much more consistently competitive than it has ever been with greater depth than it has ever been at pretty much every position. I remember under Mac you never wanted to see a 2nd stringer in the game because at most positions the drop off was dramatic.

    With the proper historical perspective, you can still be frustrated that ISU's average pts/game isn't 45, but also realize your negative assessment of all things offense is inaccurate and way too pessimistic. So say the stats, roster depth and intangibles like on the field poise.


    Last edited by ShopTalk; 04-04-2011 at 03:06 AM.

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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    I would love to see our scoring offense at or above 30 this year. I think Herman is doing a decent job with what he's got. Which is what you pointed out for his first two seasons - average. I imagine he will improve our offense. At least I hope so.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Hopefully our offense can do it this year but man we need more than 22 points a game. Maybe our offense will surprise like the defense did last year



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    If the offense can somehow improve even a little on that, I think the defense may show enough improvement to be the difference between going to a bowl or not this year.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Just some more numbers....going back to 1929 here are the top 40 average points per game scored by ISU for a season, along with average points scored by the opponent. Ranked by most ISU points.
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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    If ranking 103rd and 97th in offense out of 113 teams in the country is ok, which it seems it is to a lot on here, then fine. I guess I was hoping for better.

    If our offense ranks down in that range again this year, we might only win a couple games.

    Herman deserves at least a couple more years to show what he can do with his own players, but at Rice he was putting up HUGE numbers in year two... I was kinda hoping we might have seen a bigger jump than from 103rd to 97th... that's all.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    Just some more numbers....going back to 1929 here are the top 40 average points per game scored by ISU for a season, along with average points scored by the opponent. Ranked by most ISU points.
    Nice chart. Just goes to show that 1976 team was the best ISU has seen as far as points scored and keeping opponents score down.

    I think this chart also shows that Herman is right in the thick of it with the #24 and #27 top scoring offenses of ISU ever.

    Now, that also shows how low the bar has been and I think that's where all the frustration comes in.

    ISU has only averaged over 30 pts per game ONCE - in 1976. The #2 scoring offense is Seneca's last year in 2002 which is included in my original chart.

    So what I think this also shows is ISU is trending up. Very slowly, but that's how it tends to go with football.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by clonedude View Post
    If ranking 103rd and 97th in offense out of 113 teams in the country is ok, which it seems it is to a lot on here, then fine. I guess I was hoping for better.

    If our offense ranks down in that range again this year, we might only win a couple games.

    Herman deserves at least a couple more years to show what he can do with his own players, but at Rice he was putting up HUGE numbers in year two... I was kinda hoping we might have seen a bigger jump than from 103rd to 97th... that's all.

    Rice has a bit of a bigger pool to recruit to I think. I agree with your couple more years assessment. He will get it done.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by clonedude View Post
    If ranking 103rd and 97th in offense out of 113 teams in the country is ok, which it seems it is to a lot on here, then fine. I guess I was hoping for better.

    If our offense ranks down in that range again this year, we might only win a couple games.

    Herman deserves at least a couple more years to show what he can do with his own players, but at Rice he was putting up HUGE numbers in year two... I was kinda hoping we might have seen a bigger jump than from 103rd to 97th... that's all.
    Couple things to keep in mind - the difference between 97th and 50th is only a few points historically, so not necessarily all that useful of a stat.

    You've also got to keep points scored in context of what ISU has done, not what the best in college FB are doing. In that context, Herman is doing well.

    Also, if you look at Khaal53's chart, the Defense gave up more points that points scored in both 2009 (21.85) and 2010 (28.83) than the offense scored.

    Remember, you can win by lowering points allowed or by outscoring opponents in a shootout.

    And as I said, no it's not OK to be at or near the bottom in any stats if you want to compete for Big 12 championships. And all fans want it now, and that's where the frustration takes over and gets everyone looking through turd-colored glasses.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    I don't feel this is valid comparison. A lot of Mac's teams were more run based and designed to chew up clock. Ergo not a lot of points or turneovers but can be competetive in most games. Chizzels offensive plans were just bad.

    In any case I would like to raise the bar from the previous 10 years. Forget the past and focus on the present and future.

    I think Herman is a good coach but he needs to show some improvement in the next season or two. He now has a lot of QBs, WRs, and RBs to pick from. And the coaching staff seems pleased with our OL. No more excuses.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by ShopTalk View Post
    I think this chart also shows that Herman is right in the thick of it with the #24 and #27 top scoring offenses of ISU ever.
    What are you talking about? The 24th best Offense in ISU history is TERRIBLE. ISU has a terrible turrible football history. Especially in today's fast-paced spread offensive games where every year there are more points scored across the NCAA than the year before (I don't have a stat for this, just a general observation). If we were Texas or Michigan or Alabama, then to say we had the 24th best offense in school history would be a positive, but 24th at ISU is bad. Herman needs to put us in the top 10 historically in scoring offenses if we want to be competitive. I have faith he will do just that, but to try to sugar coat what he's done so far is silly.



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by synapticwave View Post
    What are you talking about? The 24th best Offense in ISU history is TERRIBLE. ISU has a terrible turrible football history. Especially in today's fast-paced spread offensive games where every year there are more points scored across the NCAA than the year before (I don't have a stat for this, just a general observation). If we were Texas or Michigan or Alabama, then to say we had the 24th best offense in school history would be a positive, but 24th at ISU is bad. Herman needs to put us in the top 10 historically in scoring offenses if we want to be competitive. I have faith he will do just that, but to try to sugar coat what he's done so far is silly.
    Yes and no. Some of our worst teams, Walden, were able to score pretty well for being so terrible in the W-L column...just couldn't stop anybody.

    In reality, we would need to go down the route that the OP did by comparing each year's offensive production to other teams that same season. That would be difficult to do going back much further than he did, though.




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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    Yes and no. Some of our worst teams, Walden, were able to score pretty well for being so terrible in the W-L column...just couldn't stop anybody.

    In reality, we would need to go down the route that the OP did by comparing each year's offensive production to other teams that same season. That would be difficult to do going back much further than he did, though.
    Our BEST offensive production was 1976 and that was 33.55 points/game. If we compare our BEST offensive production in the history of our program to what the Big12 has done every year for the last five years here is where we'd rank:

    2010: 4th
    2009: 3rd
    2008: 8th
    2007: 8th
    2006: 3rd
    2005: 3rd
    2004: 4th

    If you think we can be competitive on the national level, let alone in the Big12 we have to get better production from our offense. Our Defense can be a top 3 defense in the conference and if we're only getting 21 points/game we'll still be at the bottom of the standings. We should never be below 24 points/game and we should be around 28. If Herman can't produce those numbers this year then I'll start to question if he can get it done. I think he will produce those numbers this year so we won't have to worry though!



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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by synapticwave View Post
    Our BEST offensive production was 1976 and that was 33.55 points/game. If we compare our BEST offensive production in the history of our program to what the Big12 has done every year for the last five years here is where we'd rank:

    2010: 4th
    2009: 3rd
    2008: 8th
    2007: 8th
    2006: 3rd
    2005: 3rd
    2004: 4th

    If you think we can be competitive on the national level, let alone in the Big12 we have to get better production from our offense. Our Defense can be a top 3 defense in the conference and if we're only getting 21 points/game we'll still be at the bottom of the standings. We should never be below 24 points/game and we should be around 28. If Herman can't produce those numbers this year then I'll start to question if he can get it done. I think he will produce those numbers this year so we won't have to worry though!
    I didn't claim that ISU's offense was historically "good". I said some of our worst teams have scored decent amounts.

    That, and I offered my opinion on the best way to determine the most productive ISU offenses.




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    Re: ISU Offensive Stats 2002 - 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by intrepid27 View Post
    I don't feel this is valid comparison. A lot of Mac's teams were more run based and designed to chew up clock. Ergo not a lot of points or turneovers but can be competetive in most games. Chizzels offensive plans were just bad.
    In 2010 we ran the ball 51% of the time. (455 runs - 33 sacks)/(455 runs + 373 pass attempts)

    In 2009 we ran the ball 59% of the time. (516 runs - 16 sacks)/(516 runs + 380 pass attempts)

    A quick look through the stats for 2002 - 2005 indicate that McCarney did run at a much higher percentage, but Herman is hardly "pass happy". He ran the ball a lot in 2009 and was pretty balanced in 2010.


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