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  1. #1
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    Bracketology Tips

    US Today has excepts from a book (yes, there is a book on 'Bracketology') by Andrew Clark, with the following tips for picking your brackets:

    1. Scoring Margin = the most important statistic.

    2. "Created Possession Margin" = Rebound Margin + Turnover Margin + Possession Margin (what's that??).

    3. Usually has less than 6-total losses (there have only been 9 teams who won the whole thing with more than 6-losses).

    4. The #9 Seed is 56-48 in first round games (since 1985 - when it went to 64 teams).

    5. Avoid teams that have high fouls / game margins.

    6. Seeds that have won it all (since 1985):
    + #1: 16 times
    + #2: 4
    + #3: 3
    + #4: 1
    + #6: 1
    + #8: 1

    Here's a good source for Scoring Margin / Statistics:
    http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball...nt/team/147/p1


    Last edited by Go2Guy; 03-16-2011 at 12:26 PM. Reason: Include Link
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  2. #2
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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    My tip: Watch games all year....look up who teams lost to and by how much and possibly why they lost. Was there injuries?

    Or just pick randomly and you'll probably do just as well!


    @RandomGeoFacts

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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    My tip - treat the "experts'" tips like a grain of salt. They're guessing just like everyone else filling out a bracket. Sure, their guesses are more educated than others, but they're still guessing.

    The one and only time I ever put a lot of stock in what the experts at ESPN had to say about the tournament was the one year I got absolutely burned beyond repair before the first weekend was over. They put far too much faith in chalk - so much so that more often than not you'll see them advance three 1's and a 2 to the Final Four, with two of those teams being ACC teams and the other two being Big East teams.

    When it comes right down to it, any of the top 48 seeds (1-12) can beat any of the other teams on any given night, when especially playing on a neutral court. If that's the case, then all this extensive "analysis" is for the most part worthless.

    The bottom line - it's just best to go with your gut. Of course, use common sense. But just keep in mind these so called "experts" aren't going to do much better than you on your picks, if they do better than you at all.


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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    I pick by how pretty I think their school colors are.



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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    pick hot teams
    pick senior dominated teams
    pick teams who are good FT shooters
    Don't get carried away picking upsets



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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by jdoggivjc View Post
    My tip - treat the "experts'" tips like a grain of salt. They're guessing just like everyone else filling out a bracket. .



    When it comes right down to it, any of the top 48 seeds (1-12) can beat any of the other teams on any given night, when especially playing on a neutral court. If that's the case, then all this extensive "analysis" is for the most part worthless.

    .
    I know where you are coming from regarding "experts"; especially when one of them is pimping a book, but I feel there is more to it then 'just going with your gut".

    Fact is, the winner has pretty much been dominated by either the 1-2-3 seeds. Sure a #12 can get hot for a game, or two, but never for six games in a row.

    I feel just employing a couple factors like, 'Scoring Margin' and 'Fouls / game' will help my selections; especially for #8-#9 seed games.


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  7. #7
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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by dualthreat View Post
    pick hot teams
    pick senior dominated teams
    pick teams who are good FT shooters
    Don't get carried away picking upsets
    Sounds reasonable - especially the last line:
    + A #15 seed has never won a second game!
    + #14 is only 2-14 in second games (since 1985).
    But......#12 is 18-17 in winning to go to Sweet 16


    Also, chances of a #1-#2-#3 winning it all is 88.5 %


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    often times you'll hear someone say, "Yeah i picked George mason to go to the final four!" *Im a genius!*

    but they also pick IUPUI and Northwestern State to go that far too...



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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by Go2Guy View Post
    I know where you are coming from regarding "experts"; especially when one of them is pimping a book, but I feel there is more to it then 'just going with your gut".

    Fact is, the winner has pretty much been dominated by either the 1-2-3 seeds. Sure a #12 can get hot for a game, or two, but never for six games in a row.

    I feel just employing a couple factors like, 'Scoring Margin' and 'Fouls / game' will help my selections; especially for #8-#9 seed games.
    If it "comforts" you at all, my Final Four is Ohio St, UConn, Pitt, and Notre Dame, which is 2 1s, a 2, and a 3. I have only 3 "upsets" in the first round (Richmond, Mizzou, and Gonzaga), an "upset" in the second round (Xavier over Syracuse), and an "upset" in the Sweet Sixteen (Louisville over Kansas). My bracket is usually mostly chalk, but I'm also not afraid to go out on a limb every once in a while.

    I said go with your gut, but I believe I also said "use common sense" at the same time.


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  10. #10
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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    I had butler in the championship game last year and still lost my pool



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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    When looking for potential upsets, I look for lower seeded teams with experienced guardplay. I am looking for teams that don't turn it over, play tough defense, and have the potential to hit some outside shots. To me, combine those qualities with a small school that can rebound, and you have the recipe for an upset.

    Guard Experience
    +Ballhandling
    +Defense
    +Some Outside Shooting
    +Ability to at stay even with top seeded teams on the boards
    =Upset



  12. #12
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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by jdoggivjc View Post
    I have only 3 "upsets" in the first round (Richmond, Mizzou, and Gonzaga), an "upset" in the second round (Xavier over Syracuse), and an "upset" in the Sweet Sixteen (Louisville over Kansas). .
    I'm hearing a lot about X over Syracyse and Louisville over KU.
    Just curious, who do you have for Mich vs Tenn?


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by CyLoboClone View Post
    I had butler in the championship game last year and still lost my pool
    Holy crap; was there any rationale for picking that, or just a hunch?

    Who will win the 1st round game: Butler vs ODU? ODU is a slight favorite on the Yahoo fan picks.


    "We are first and foremost an educational institution that values integrity, honesty and treating others with fairness and respect".

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  14. #14
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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by dualthreat View Post
    pick hot teams
    pick senior dominated teams
    pick teams who are good FT shooters
    Don't get carried away picking upsets
    I would say teams with excellent guard play as well.



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    Re: Bracketology Tips

    Quote Originally Posted by jdoggivjc View Post
    If it "comforts" you at all, my Final Four is Ohio St, UConn, Pitt, and Notre Dame, which is 2 1s, a 2, and a 3. I have only 3 "upsets" in the first round (Richmond, Mizzou, and Gonzaga), an "upset" in the second round (Xavier over Syracuse), and an "upset" in the Sweet Sixteen (Louisville over Kansas). My bracket is usually mostly chalk, but I'm also not afraid to go out on a limb every once in a while.

    I said go with your gut, but I believe I also said "use common sense" at the same time.
    I keep going back and forth about Xavier over Syracuse. I really like that the game is in Cleveland. But I'm worried about Jimmy Butler and Marquette beating them in the first round.



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