Big 12 Preview/Predictions
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    Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    The Big 12s are only a week away. The seeds haven't come out yet, but I gave everything a best guess. The records shown are primarily how the wrestlers fared against each other in the Big 12 dual season, though I cheated a little bit in some cases. For example there were instances where two wrestlers met in a tournament, but one was injured for the dual. There were also lots of cases where wrestlers split matches this season, in this case I tended to give the higher seed to whoever had won more recently.

    My prediction for the seeding and some discussion for each weight is below. The first ranking is Intermat, and the second is Amateur Wrestling News.


    125 (3 Qualifiers)
    1. Jonathon Morrison - Oklahoma State (4-0) 7/6
    2. Jarrod Patterson - Oklahoma (3-1) 8/7
    3. Alan Waters - Missouri (2-2) 9/8
    4. David Klingsheim - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Brandon Jones - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    Jones lost to Klingsheim 3-4 this weekend, so I think he is totally capable of getting a win there to get 4th, but He has been majored by every other guy in the division, so I can't see him getting 3rd short of a lucky pin. I'm hoping to see him get that first win to score some team points.


    133 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Jordan Oliver - Oklahoma State (4-0) 1/1
    2. Jordan Keller - Oklahoma (2-2) NR/NR
    3. Ridge Kiley - Nebraska (2-2) NR/NR
    4. Nathan McCormick - Missouri (2-2) NR/NR
    5. Ben Cash - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    I honestly have no idea why the Big 12 got four qualifiers at this weight. But it gives Cash chance to make it to Philadelphia. Cash's closest match was against Kiley, losing 0-3, but was dominated for most of the Big XII season. I won't count him out though, especially since both him and Jackson know he only needs one win to qualify. I think he'll come out fired up and ready to go in that first match and is capable of getting a win to steal that 4th slot.

    141 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Zach Bailey - Oklahoma (4-0) 6/8
    2. Todd Schavrien - Missouri (2-2) 11/11
    3. Chris Drioun - Iowa State (1-1) 15/19
    4. Joshua Kindig - Oklahoma State (2-2) 17/18
    5. Mike Koehnlein - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR


    This was by far the toughest weight class for guessing the seeding. With four qualifiers, I am not concerned about Drioun qualifying, but picking up a win or two against the other ranked guys in the weight class will be very important for seeding at nationals. Chris beat Schavrien at Midlands and then lost at his first match after coming back from his concussion, so I'm hoping to see the rubber match between those two go Drioun's way.

    149 (1 Qualifier)
    1. Jamal Parks - Oklahoma State (4-0) 5/6
    2. Matt Lester - Oklahoma (3-1) 15/18
    3. Kyle Bradley - Missouri (2-2) NR/NR
    4. Nathanial Carr/Max Mayfield - Iowa State (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Ross Grande - Nebraska (0-4) NR/NR

    The new allocation system really screwed us from having a shot here. A whole lot of the dual matches at this weight were fairly close and I really doubt that this weight class will go as seeded. However, Jamal Parks is a step above everyone else, so with only 1 qualifier I just can't see either Mayfield or Carr making it to Nationals. I am hoping to see them score us some team points with a win or two though.

    157 (1 Qualifier)
    1. Robert Erisman - Oklahoma State (4-0) 11/12
    2. Chase Nelson - Oklahoma (3-1) 12/13
    3. Giorgio Gregoris - Missouri (2-2) NR/16
    4. Trent Weatherman - Iowa State (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Tyler Koehn - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR

    Weatherman is kind of a wild card. I could totally see him pinning his way through the tournament and taking first. But I can also see him getting major decisioned all the way to 5th place. With only one qualifier, the odds are very much against Trent making the cut.

    165 (5 Qualifiers)
    1. Jordan Burroughs - Nebraska (4-0) 1/1
    2. Tyler Caldwell - Oklahoma (3-1) 3/2
    3. Andrew Sorenson - Iowa State (2-1) 7/9
    4. Zach Toal - Missouri (1-3) 9/10
    5. Dallas Bailey - Nebraska (1-3) 10/11

    If you only watch one weight class on March 5th, make it this one. Every single one of these guys will be going to Nationals, so this tournament will be all about seeding. At least one of these guys will be in the finals in Philadelphia, and I wouldn't be very surprised to see an all Big XII final.

    174 (3 Qualifiers)
    1. Jonathan Reader - Iowa State (4-0) 1/1
    2. Mike Benefiel - Oklahoma State (3-1) 11/14
    3. Dorian Henderson Missouri (2-2) NR/17
    4. Caleb Kolb - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Jeff James - Oklahoma (0-4) NR/NR

    Reader has majored or teched every guy in the bracket. Short of an injury I think he'll cruise through the Big XIIs without much trouble. Even if he has the worst tournament of his life and somehow doesn't place in the top three he'll get an at large berth.

    184 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Chris Perry - Oklahoma State (4-0) 9/9
    2. Josh Ihnen - Nebraska (3-1) 10/10
    3. Erich Schmditke - Oklahoma (2-2) 14/15
    4. Mike Larson - Missouri (1-3) 15/16
    5. Richard Shafer - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    Shafer has been coming on strong in the latter part of the season, but 184 is a very tough weight in the Big XII this year. The upside of this is that there are 4 qualifying spots, so Shafer only needs one win to make it to Philly. His best shot at a win is with Larson, who beat him 8-4 back in December but on 3-4 in February. I give Shafer about 40/60 odds of pulling off a win over Larson and qualifying.


    197 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Clayton Foster - Oklahoma State (4-0) 3/2
    2. Andy Johnson - Nebraska (3-1) 13/13
    3. Jerome Ward - Iowa State (2-2) 14/14
    4. Brent Haynes - Missouri (1-3) 15/15
    5. Keldrick Hall - Oklahoma (0-4) NR/NR

    Ward has the ability to beat anyone. But he also has the ability to lose to anyone. His only match during the big 12 season that was not decided by a mere two points was an 8-3 decision against Haynes. I'm not worried about Ward not qualifying, but I'd like to see him pick up a win against Johnson to score us some team points and to give him a better seed in Philly.


    285 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Dominque Bradley - Missouri (4-0) 5/6
    2. Tucker Lane - Nebraska (3-1) 13/8
    3. Nathan Fernandez - Oklahoma (2-2) 14/9
    4. Blake Rosholt Oklahoma State (2-2) NR/NR
    5. Kyle Simonson/Kyle Slifka - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR


    The situation here is similar to the one at 184. Four qualifiers and our guy only needing a slight upset to take that 4th spot. Not much to say here, I give us about a 1 in 3 chance of qualifying at Heavy.

    All told, I think we have 4 safe bets to qualify (141, 165, 174, 197), three guys with a decent chance (133, 184, 285), and three guys that I can't see making it (125, 149, 157). My guess is that as a team we'll take 3rd or 4th.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-25-2011 at 08:28 PM.

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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Simonson is the one that received the 4th auto qualifier at Hwt. So I think if there are not a lot of upsets nationally, Kyle will get a wild card if he loses the 1st match. Cash will probably wrestle mcCormick 1st round and lost 10-2 in dual. Shafer will probably wrestle Larson and have the best shot to earn a bid. We will be wrestling alot of the 4/5 matchups, so we better be ready in front of the home crowd.



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    If Simonson hadn't missed the last few meets with an injury I would have given Heavy better than 1 in 3 chance of qualifying, but since we don't know if it'll be him or Slifka I went on the low side. Though Slifka seems to be pretty good at not getting scored on. So who knows, he might be able to beat Rosholt 1-0 if he gets the nod next week.



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    edit: doublepost

    I guess I'll now reserve this space to post the actual seeds when they come out next week.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-25-2011 at 07:24 PM.

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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Do the 4 and 5 seeds wrestle to get it down to 4 and then they just have two rounds after that?


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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by wesley_w View Post
    Do the 4 and 5 seeds wrestle to get it down to 4 and then they just have two rounds after that?
    4 vs 5
    Semifinals
    Consolation
    Third-place
    Fourth-place challenge matches (if necessary)
    *break*
    Finals



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    If Simonson hadn't missed the last few meets with an injury I would have given Heavy better than 1 in 3 chance of qualifying, but since we don't know if it'll be him or Slifka I went on the low side. Though Slifka seems to be pretty good at not getting scored on. So who knows, he might be able to beat Rosholt 1-0 if he gets the nod next week.
    Could be Z the russian for Okie State



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    This is a bit off topic, but I don't remember hearing what the Big 12 is doing next year with only 4 teams participating in wrestling. Are they running with 4 next year or trying to bring in a couple other schools?



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by LindenCy View Post
    This is a bit off topic, but I don't remember hearing what the Big 12 is doing next year with only 4 teams participating in wrestling. Are they running with 4 next year or trying to bring in a couple other schools?
    I haven't heard. I'd love to see them invite UNI and some schools like Air Force as Wrestling only schools. But that would never happen. Maybe we'll qualify through the western regional?



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by buf87 View Post
    Could be Z the russian for Okie State
    Intermat suddenly has "Alan Gelogaev" from Okie State ranked out of nowhere. But he doesn't have many matches, and none on varsity. Did he just finally come off his injury or something? I know he has done some damage at 197 before, but not heavy. That would suck for Simonson to suddenly have another AA against him in the tourney.


    Last edited by Judoka; 02-26-2011 at 01:36 AM.

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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    The Big 12s are only a week away. The seeds haven't come out yet, but I gave everything a best guess. The records shown are primarily how the wrestlers fared against each other in the Big 12 dual season, though I cheated a little bit in some cases. For example there were instances where two wrestlers met in a tournament, but one was injured for the dual. There were also lots of cases where wrestlers split matches this season, in this case I tended to give the higher seed to whoever had won more recently.

    My prediction for the seeding and some discussion for each weight is below. The first ranking is Intermat, and the second is Amateur Wrestling News.


    125 (3 Qualifiers)
    1. Jonathon Morrison - Oklahoma State (4-0) 7/6
    2. Jarrod Patterson - Oklahoma (3-1) 8/7
    3. Alan Waters - Missouri (2-2) 9/8
    4. David Klingsheim - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Brandon Jones - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    Jones lost to Klingsheim 3-4 this weekend, so I think he is totally capable of getting a win there to get 4th, but He has been majored by every other guy in the division, so I can't see him getting 3rd short of a lucky pin. I'm hoping to see him get that first win to score some team points.


    133 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Jordan Oliver - Oklahoma State (4-0) 1/1
    2. Jordan Keller - Oklahoma (2-2) NR/NR
    3. Ridge Kiley - Nebraska (2-2) NR/NR
    4. Nathan McCormick - Missouri (2-2) NR/NR
    5. Ben Cash - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    I honestly have no idea why the Big 12 got four qualifiers at this weight. But it gives Cash chance to make it to Philadelphia. Cash's closest match was against Kiley, losing 0-3, but was dominated for most of the Big XII season. I won't count him out though, especially since both him and Jackson know he only needs one win to qualify. I think he'll come out fired up and ready to go in that first match and is capable of getting a win to steal that 4th slot.

    141 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Zach Bailey - Oklahoma (4-0) 6/8
    2. Todd Schavrien - Missouri (2-2) 11/11
    3. Chris Drioun - Iowa State (1-1) 15/19
    4. Joshua Kindig - Oklahoma State (2-2) 17/18
    5. Mike Koehnlein - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR


    This was by far the toughest weight class for guessing the seeding. With four qualifiers, I am not concerned about Drioun qualifying, but picking up a win or two against the other ranked guys in the weight class will be very important for seeding at nationals. Chris beat Schavrien at Midlands and then lost at his first match after coming back from his concussion, so I'm hoping to see the rubber match between those two go Drioun's way.

    149 (1 Qualifier)
    1. Jamal Parks - Oklahoma State (4-0) 5/6
    2. Matt Lester - Oklahoma (3-1) 15/18
    3. Kyle Bradley - Missouri (2-2) NR/NR
    4. Nathanial Carr/Max Mayfield - Iowa State (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Ross Grande - Nebraska (0-4) NR/NR

    The new allocation system really screwed us from having a shot here. A whole lot of the dual matches at this weight were fairly close and I really doubt that this weight class will go as seeded. However, Jamal Parks is a step above everyone else, so with only 1 qualifier I just can't see either Mayfield or Carr making it to Nationals. I am hoping to see them score us some team points with a win or two though.

    157 (1 Qualifier)
    1. Robert Erisman - Oklahoma State (4-0) 11/12
    2. Chase Nelson - Oklahoma (3-1) 12/13
    3. Giorgio Gregoris - Missouri (2-2) NR/16
    4. Trent Weatherman - Iowa State (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Tyler Koehn - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR

    Weatherman is kind of a wild card. I could totally see him pinning his way through the tournament and taking first. But I can also see him getting major decisioned all the way to 5th place. With only one qualifier, the odds are very much against Trent making the cut.

    165 (5 Qualifiers)
    1. Jordan Burroughs - Nebraska (4-0) 1/1
    2. Tyler Caldwell - Oklahoma (3-1) 3/2
    3. Andrew Sorenson - Iowa State (2-1) 7/9
    4. Zach Toal - Missouri (1-3) 9/10
    5. Dallas Bailey - Nebraska (1-3) 10/11

    If you only watch one weight class on March 5th, make it this one. Every single one of these guys will be going to Nationals, so this tournament will be all about seeding. At least one of these guys will be in the finals in Philadelphia, and I wouldn't be very surprised to see an all Big XII final.

    174 (3 Qualifiers)
    1. Jonathan Reader - Iowa State (4-0) 1/1
    2. Mike Benefiel - Oklahoma State (3-1) 11/14
    3. Dorian Henderson Missouri (2-2) NR/17
    4. Caleb Kolb - Nebraska (1-3) NR/NR
    5. Jeff James - Oklahoma (0-4) NR/NR

    Reader has majored or teched every guy in the bracket. Short of an injury I think he'll cruise through the Big XIIs without much trouble. Even if he has the worst tournament of his life and somehow doesn't place in the top three he'll get an at large berth.

    184 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Chris Perry - Oklahoma State (4-0) 9/9
    2. Josh Ihnen - Nebraska (3-1) 10/10
    3. Erich Schmditke - Oklahoma (2-2) 14/15
    4. Mike Larson - Missouri (1-3) 15/16
    5. Richard Shafer - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR

    Shafer has been coming on strong in the latter part of the season, but 184 is a very tough weight in the Big XII this year. The upside of this is that there are 4 qualifying spots, so Shafer only needs one win to make it to Philly. His best shot at a win is with Larson, who beat him 8-4 back in December but on 3-4 in February. I give Shafer about 40/60 odds of pulling off a win over Larson and qualifying.


    197 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Clayton Foster - Oklahoma State (4-0) 3/2
    2. Andy Johnson - Nebraska (3-1) 13/13
    3. Jerome Ward - Iowa State (2-2) 14/14
    4. Brent Haynes - Missouri (1-3) 15/15
    5. Keldrick Hall - Oklahoma (0-4) NR/NR

    Ward has the ability to beat anyone. But he also has the ability to lose to anyone. His only match during the big 12 season that was not decided by a mere two points was an 8-3 decision against Haynes. I'm not worried about Ward not qualifying, but I'd like to see him pick up a win against Johnson to score us some team points and to give him a better seed in Philly.


    285 (4 Qualifiers)
    1. Dominque Bradley - Missouri (4-0) 5/6
    2. Tucker Lane - Nebraska (3-1) 13/8
    3. Nathan Fernandez - Oklahoma (2-2) 14/9
    4. Blake Rosholt Oklahoma State (2-2) NR/NR
    5. Kyle Simonson/Kyle Slifka - Iowa State (0-4) NR/NR


    The situation here is similar to the one at 184. Four qualifiers and our guy only needing a slight upset to take that 4th spot. Not much to say here, I give us about a 1 in 3 chance of qualifying at Heavy.

    All told, I think we have 4 safe bets to qualify (141, 165, 174, 197), three guys with a decent chance (133, 184, 285), and three guys that I can't see making it (125, 149, 157). My guess is that as a team we'll take 3rd or 4th.

    Thanks for the post Judoka. Great preliminary summary. I'm pretty excited to watch the Big 12s next week. Hoping for the best case scenarios to play out! Go Iowa State!



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    Intermat suddenly has "Alan Gelogaev" from Okie State ranked out of nowhere. But he doesn't have many matches, and none on varsity. Did he just finally come off his injury or something? I know he has done some damage at 197 before, but not heavy. That would suck for Simonson to suddenly have another AA against him in the tourney.
    Yea I heard that earlier that the russian would probably back for the Big 12's. That's why I think Kyle will get a wild card if he doesn't win a match.



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    I haven't heard. I'd love to see them invite UNI and some schools like Air Force as Wrestling only schools. But that would never happen. Maybe we'll qualify through the western regional?
    They are trying to get an exemption to qualify with 4 teams, this is option #1. UNI has also been trying to get in the Big 12's for wrestling, this is probably option #2.



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by buf87 View Post
    Yea I heard that earlier that the russian would probably back for the Big 12's. That's why I think Kyle will get a wild card if he doesn't win a match.
    That's a good point - losing out to a guy who is a former AA and just got into the line-up probably would merit a wild card berth. There are 28 automatic berths at heavy this year, so with 5 wild card spots available it would be pretty good odds.

    I think whoever gets second at 149 is also a shoe in for a wild card berth, though Carr or Mayfield would have to have a great tournament to make it to the finals next Saturday.

    Anybody who is closer to the team than me know which one we'll be seeing take the mat?



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    Re: Big 12 Preview/Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Judoka View Post
    That's a good point - losing out to a guy who is a former AA and just got into the line-up probably would merit a wild card berth. There are 28 automatic berths at heavy this year, so with 5 wild card spots available it would be pretty good odds.

    I think whoever gets second at 149 is also a shoe in for a wild card berth, though Carr or Mayfield would have to have a great tournament to make it to the finals next Saturday.

    Anybody who is closer to the team than me know which one we'll be seeing take the mat?
    My guess is Mayfield, but just a guess. I think KJ gave Carr a couple chance to perform late in the season and he failed.



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