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  1. #1
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    07-08 MBB predictions

    I know we're all football crazy today, but the MBB schedule is out so I have to start taking a look at how I think the season will go. (Disclaimer: I'm probably going to change this 8 times by tipoff.)

    I think the biggest factor in determining winners in CBB is home court advantage, so I don't think any game is that easy on the road.

    NON-CONFERENCE

    This features 6 games which are absolute must wins, the two Cyclone Challenge games, the Bethune Cookman/TX Southern Vegas Classic home games, and the USC Upstate and North Dakota Games. The others range in difficulty but here's how I think it shakes out:

    SHOULD WINS
    Iowa: Let's face it, they are probably not going to be good and it's at home.
    UNI: They lost a lot last year and it's at home.
    Minnesota: Tubby, good experience, but they are weak where we are weak (backcourt) and it's at home.

    GETTIN' TOUGHER
    Drake: They lost a lot but I was fairly impressed with some guys on the squad in the CCL. I'll be bummed if we lose, however, it's on the road.
    Oregon State: They are bad (11-21 last year) and they lost their leading scorer and center. But it's on the road.
    Bradley: One of the worst games of the year for us last year, but I think we match up with them a lot better this year. On the road though.
    Albany: Tourney team last year, but they lost a lot. They'll bring the thunder with some Iowa kids on the roster and it's a real trap game on New Year's Eve.

    RUT-RO
    Purdue: They'll be younger than us but absolutely loaded with talent.
    Alabama/Miss St.: Alabama is super athletic and has a vet backcourt, Miss St. is very experienced and made the tourney last year.

    Basically, if I had to pick right now, I would pick us to obviously win the first 6, take 2 of 3 from the SHOULD WINS, split the GETTIN' TOUGHER, and hopefully get one from RUT-RO. That would be an 11-4 start and I think that would put us in a really good situation. (Yes, I think that is very optimistic)

    CONFERENCE
    (Breaking this down in 4's)

    @Baylor
    Mizzou
    Okie State
    @Kansas

    Hoping for a split here winning the Mizzou and Okie State games.

    @KSU
    Colorado
    @Nebbie
    @A&M

    Hoping for a split here - Don't see us beating KSU or A&M. CU at home should be automatic and NU is going to be very, very young next year.

    UT
    @OU
    NU
    @TT

    Again, hoping for a split but it's a tough stretch. UT will stil be good, OU is very tough on the road. NU at home should be automatic. TT lost Jackson and some others, but should still be solid. Don't know where the two are coming from here.

    KU
    @CU
    @Mizzou
    KSU

    Hoping for two here again, probably CU and KSU. I'd love to beat KSU this year, I have some friends who are fans and they are almost unbearable.

    PROGNOSIS

    Honestly I'm looking at about a 7-9 record in the conference to end up at 18-13. That's kind of what I guessed before seeing the final schedule. I'd love for this squad to make the tourney in '08 but I think we're looking at an NIT year. '09 in our year IMO and then I pretty much expect ISU to be contending for a tourney bid almost every year. Great year to have season tickets though. (Yes, that was a plug.)




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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    This is just gut reaction, so nothing is really certain until the season gets here...

    Winston-Salem State - W
    Centenary or Lipscomb - W
    at Bradley - L
    Minnesota - W
    Northern Iowa - W
    at Oregon State - L
    at Drake - W
    Iowa - W
    Bethune-Cookman - W
    Texas Southern - W
    vs. Purdue - W
    vs. Alabama or Missouri State - L
    Albany - W
    USC-Upstate - W
    North Dakota - W
    at Baylor - L
    Missouri - W
    Oklahoma State - W
    at Kansas - L
    at Kansas State - L
    Colorado - W
    at Nebraska - W
    Texas A&M - W
    Texas - L
    at Oklahoma - W
    Nebraska - W
    at Texas Tech - L
    Kansas - W
    at Colorado - W
    at Missouri - L
    Kansas State - W

    22-9 (10-6)

    Obviously needs some work. This would probably put us in the tourney. :)


    Go Sssssssssyclones!

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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    It probably would. I really hope we don't lose to Oregon State, they suck, and I want the Big 12 to look good in this Pac-10 thing.




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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    Given our improved talent and ignoring the possible flops inherent with that talent being "fresh", I see a few different categories here:

    Must Wins (95% likelihood of winning): 6-7 wins
    Winston-Salem State
    Centenary or Lipscomb
    Bethune-Cookman
    Texas Southern
    Albany
    USC-Upstate
    North Dakota

    More likely than not Wins (80% likelihood of winning): 3-5 wins
    Northern Iowa
    at Drake (oh yes, I don't see Mac letting it happen again)
    Iowa
    Colorado
    Nebraska

    Probably Wins (70% likelihood of winning): 4-7 wins
    at Bradley
    Minnesota
    at Baylor
    Missouri
    at Oregon State
    at Nebraska
    at Colorado


    Coin Flips (50%): 0-4 wins
    vs. Purdue
    vs. Alabama or Missouri State
    at Texas Tech
    at Missouri

    More likely than not Losses (30% likelihood of winning): 0-2 wins
    Oklahoma State
    Texas A&M
    Texas
    at Oklahoma
    Kansas State

    Likely Losses (5% likelihood of winning): 0 Wins
    at Kansas
    at Kansas State
    Kansas


    So, our range should be anywhere between 13 and 25 wins depending on how the ball bounces. However, my gut tells me we will have between 18-22 wins and be hanging on the bubble until it bursts or is permitted to dance.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    Winston-Salem State - W, 100 percent.
    Centenary or Lipscomb - W, 100 percent.
    at Bradley - L, but I expect a great game.
    Minnesota - W, Hilton Magic carries us.
    Northern Iowa - W, tough game but McD gets it done.
    at Oregon State - W, OSU is not good, we really should win.
    at Drake - L, Tough matchup, Knapp Center will be rockin
    Iowa - W, Iowa is rebuilding.
    Bethune-Cookman - W, easy.
    Texas Southern - W, easy.
    vs. Purdue - L, I don't think so, close game.
    vs. Alabama or Missouri State - We can beat Mizzou St, Bama is will be good if healthy.
    Albany - W
    USC-Upstate - W
    North Dakota - W
    at Baylor - L (Swing game)
    Missouri - W
    Oklahoma State - L(Swing game)
    at Kansas - L
    at Kansas State - L
    Colorado - W
    at Nebraska - L(Swing game)
    Texas A&M - L
    Texas - L
    at Oklahoma - L
    Nebraska - W
    at Texas Tech -L
    Kansas -L
    at Colorado - W
    at Missouri - L
    Kansas State - W


    Non-Conference record: 11-4
    Conference record:5-11
    Overall: 16-15 (No postseason)



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    My hunch is we take a step back this year. Couple extra losses. No postseason again. I think we miss Taylor a great deal early. And we miss him even more in specific game situations that we need a hoop or a FT attempt late. I think we get killed at guard early in the Big 12, and late in the season in the Big 12 as the freshman wear down. 14 win season is what I'm expecting. Huge pressure on McD in year 3. He really needed a guard to stick with the program in that first class.


    'tiny little text etched into her neck it said "jesus lived and died for all your sins." she's got blue black ink and it's scratched into her lower back. it said: "damn right i'll rise again." yeah, damn right you'll rise again.'

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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    I think what we will see for the first time in about 4 years is a basketball team. Not a couple of street-ballers and some guys standing around wishing they could be involved. Someone will have to step up to take the pressure off Wesley, (Garrett, Staiger) and Jiri or Thompson have to give us a back to the basket post presents. IF all of that happens, I can see 17-18 wins



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    I see about 19 to 20 wins. I have no idea how that might happen, but McDermott did wonders with last year's team, and this team should be better.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    This year is really tough to call. I'm keeping my expectations reserved for now, but I have heard from multiple people close to the program, that ISU is getting way over looked and they fully expect to surprise some people. They were comments I had not heard in past years, so I find some credibility to them.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    I don't question the overall talent level of this team, but the amount of first year players worries me. We saw how long it took those guys to pick up GMac's system last year and I worry about us struggling because of that. Seems like we are asking too much of freshman and sophomores, but we aren't the only team doing that. I thought with Mike Taylor in the fold we had a shot, but I know how much we will miss him. I also question our size in the paint. Brackins is probably a year away and there's nothing wrong with that. With another good recruiting class in 08, things look very promising for the future.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    I posted my opinions of the cap city league games and talent level earlier this summer. Now that I have had some time to think over what I saw at the games and compare that to what I have seen in earlier years this is what I think needs to happen for this year to be at all successful.
    We will need scoring big time. I like a few of the new guards we brought in, but I believe their points will not equal the output of what we had last year in the backcourt. Sorry I just don’t see it happening. So, we will need big time effort out of our frontcourt this year. To do this we need to have a shooter and a driver on the court all well.

    Backcourt- Less points, less turnovers, more assists, hopefully average D

    Garrett -Will be an amazing ball player in a few years; he is just too small now. I’m not saying he won’t be good this year. He just needs time to develop and work on shooting. He will play a lot and will have many assists because not many people could guard him that includes the late Mike Taylor from what I saw this summer. Look for the freshman assist record to go down this year.

    Brister- If he can come in a get the ball down the court without making any turnovers for ten minutes a game this year I would be excited. Don’t expect any points or great defense, but he will help in rebounding and scrappiness.

    Staiger- Will play a lot because he is a great team member and can get red hot from three. My only problem with Staiger is he is not very assertive and likes to play a backseat role on the team. Do not get me wrong, I like team players. We will need him to be our 3-point scoring option every game. This may be hard for a freshman. He will also have to get in better athletic shape to keep up on defense.

    Boozer- I don’t think he will play that much, I’m still not sure why we picked him up.

    Petersen- very short but I think he will end up being a better point guard then C-mac was last year. If he can shoot over his defenders, he will make a few 3’s. He will play a bigger role on this team then some people may think.

    Haluska- If we need scoring he will play. He is everything you would expect from a white, short, two-guard from Iowa.

    Frontcourt- This will be the heart of our team. They will not be very flashy but I’m hoping for a group effort that will score a lot of points and be the best rebounding team in the Big 12, and make up for an average backcourt defense.

    Jiri/Thompson- rotate time at 5 spot. I think we will need a total of 23-25 points 15 rebounds from them too make the dance. This is not unattainable.

    Wes- More time at the three but near the same output this year in points and rebounds. He will be better at defense and passing. That turnaround jump shot from about 10 feet is unstoppable. We should post him up a few times a game.

    Vette- Red shirt, have too with the lack of post recruits next year.

    Brackins- will not be the star everyone thinks he will be next year. He needs a lot of time in the weight room. He will make dunks look effortless. Of course his time will come.

    Clark- Team dad, not much has changed with his role on the team. Maybe he can get hot for a game or two this year.

    Corry - The player everyone forgets. He will start to remind people of that other undersized forward that played to the east. Greg has stated CJ was the most improved player over the summer. I bet he will be stealing more of Clark’s minutes by the end of the season. He finishes well around the hoop and really can shoot the three making him a match up problem. This year he will be able to understand the system more, hopefully making his D more reliable. My bold prediction CJ averages 10 points a game this year!

    I will be waiting for the first game to see if what I saw this summer carries over to Hilton.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    When Greg took the job, he said that if you want a guy to come in and quick fix (Tim Floyd), that we should have hired someone else.

    To me, there is no way that we can predict a record for this group. It may be a step back, to go three steps forward. Or, we may surprise people, I honestly have no read on this situation. We could win 12-13, or we could win 20 +.

    The only thing that I can tell is that Greg is comfortable with what he has to work with. I believe that he expects them to open to his teaching, and that suits him just fine. He will have them prepared to the best of his ability, and he will coach the hell out of them, that is all I can say with 100% certainty.

    So I guess that will be my prediction. I think I will be right .


    Jeffrey A Crawford

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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    I think there is a common thread in all these posts. We won't be out-coached this year from a lack of effort. Greg is bringing us exactly what he promised, which is to give us a chance in every ball game. Wesley will be All Big 12, and Jiri and Thompson will give us some size. Look for Jiri to be in Big 12 form from last season right out of the blocks. I watched that guy improve SO much last year, from having a coach really pay attention to him. Brackins won't have so much pressure on him, so he'll develop nicely.

    I don't think we'll miss Taylor as much as everyone thinks. Think less turnovers, and less hail mary shots. The season will hinge on how the backcourt performs. If we get good to great guard play, we are looking at 18-20 wins, and post season. If we don't, no post season, but we'll look a darn sight better than some games last year. That's all we can ask from the new guys.

    Myself, I think we'll get good to great guard play, and be in the post season. I think Greg has good instincts, and he's picked some good players. Let's ride the Wesley Johnson/Jiri Hubalek train to Kemper, and beyond! (The Big 12 is in Kemper this year, isn't it?)



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    Too early for me to get thinking about basketball although I get into ISU Basketball much more than I do FB. Right now I think 18+ wins and I'd be thrilled because I think we could easily have another repeat of last season.

    Let's face it, we lost our entire backcourt and are relying on a lot of freshman to pick up the slack. Mike Taylor's loss is going to be bigger than most think. He was the 1 guy last year that could create his own shot with time running down so that right there will be 1 thing someone will have to step up and fill that role. WJ for as good as he is I'm not sure has the ball handling skills to be as effective as MT was doing that last year. I think we'll rely heavy on our post game with the depth we have there now and hopefully one of the new kids has the impact that WJ had last season.

    Have to remember we have no Big 12 expirience in that backcourt right now outside of Jacobson and Currie and I don't see either playing much. With a lot of talented and big gaurds in the conference we will see these kids go through some growing pains trying to adapt to Big 12 basketball. I agree with AK's assessments of Garrett and Brackins. Both are extremely talented but from what I saw of them in the Capitol City league Garrett is going to be going up against guys much stronger than him and Brackins got pushed around on defense a lot by our other big guys so both I can see having their ups and downs this year but give them a year or 2 and they could be something special.

    I hope that they exceed expectations, nothing better to be a part of than when we have winning basketball in Hilton. But realistically my expectations are at around another .500 team. You just can't expect all these new kids to come in and be consistent and become instant stars.



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    Re: 07-08 MBB predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by travman23 View Post
    Let's face it, we lost our entire backcourt and are relying on a lot of freshman to pick up the slack. Mike Taylor's loss is going to be bigger than most think.
    This isn't a response directed at you travman, but basically to the sentiment expressed by many that we lost our whole backcourt and "don't have a Taylor to turn to" this year. Maybe I'm just an overly positive guy (and I am as my 2 lost $100 bets in 2002-2004 that we'd win the conference can attest to ), but to me I think that we are in a lot better shape than we were last year. Last year we also had no experience back in the guard court either, and we had 3 little known, lower ranked recruits coming in to fill those spots. Taylor was NOT as highly touted as Diante (and maybe Staiger?) coming in. Now granted he turned out to be a playmaker (and team offense killer), but who is to say that these new guys that are more highly rated than Taylor won't be better and more consistent? I don't put a ton of stock in stars and that stuff, but it makes sense to me to AT LEAST expect the same, if not better production out of our new new guardcourt than we had out of our new one last year. All that said, I'm not planning on losing a 3rd $100 bet this season



    Im just glad I have Homan as my bodyguard, Eustachy joked. If I ever make it real big and get to drive a limo everyday, hell be driving it. I thought he came off the bench like somebody was stealing his cow or something.

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