Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. #1
    Hall-Of-Famer
    Points: 105,825, Level: 100
    Level completed: 0%, Points required for next Level: 0
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Iowa
    Posts
    3,581
    Points
    105,825
    Level
    100
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 0
    Given: 0

    The Curse of the No. 1 Draft Pick

    The economists looked at each player's probability of making the roster, his number of starts, and his likelihood of making the Pro Bowl. They found that higher picks were better than lower picks on average and that first rounders on average post better numbers than second rounders, who in turn post better stats than third-round draft picks, and so on.
    The problem was that they weren't that much better. Even looking position by position, the top draft picks are overvalued. How much better is the first quarterback or receiver taken than the second or third quarterback or receiver? Not much. The researchers concluded the following:
    The probability that the first player drafted at a given position is better than the second player drafted at the same position is only 53%, that is, slightly better than a tie.
    The probability that the first player drafted at a position is better than the third player drafted at the same position is only 55%.
    The probability that the first player drafted at a position is better than the fourth player drafted at the same position is only 56%.
    In other words, selecting the consensus top player at a specific position versus the consensus fourth best player at that position increases performance, measured by the number of starts, by only 6%. And even this is understating the case, since the number one pick is afforded more chances/more starts simply because the team has invested so much money in him. Yet teams will end up paying, in terms of both players and dollars, as much as four or five times more to get that first player relative to the fourth player. Was Manning really 50% better than Rivers and twice as good as Roethlisberger? You'd be hard put to convince anyone that Manning is appreciably more valuable than Rivers or Roethlisberger; in any event, he's certainly not twice as valuable.

    Read more: The Curse of No. 1 draft pick from the book, Scorecasting - The Bonus - SI.com



  2. #2
    Pro
    Points: 51,959, Level: 70
    Level completed: 58%, Points required for next Level: 591
    Overall activity: 0%
    Achievements:
    Veteran50000 Experience Points
    Tank's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Fort Walton Beach, FL
    Posts
    2,265
    Points
    51,959
    Level
    70
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 4
    Given: 9

    Re: The Curse of the No. 1 Draft Pick

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno1

    Looking at the history of the #1's back to 1980, I would say the majority of have done or currently are doing really well.

    - Bradford
    - Long
    - Williams
    - Manning
    - Palmer
    - Vick
    - Manning
    - Pace
    - Johnson
    - Maryland
    - Aikman
    - Testaverde
    - Jackson
    - Smith
    - Fryar
    - Elway


    Granted, also looking at the #2, #3, etc... the same goes for those picks also.


    Last edited by Tank; 01-17-2011 at 11:10 AM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
  • Football
  • Iowa State vs. North Dakota State
  • August 30, 2014
  • 11:00 AM