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    Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    Article just posted and currently on the NY Times homepage:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/us...agewanted=1&hp



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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    Sorry if you have to register with the NYT to see it (though the article is free and it is possible you won't have to). For what it is worth, it includes quotes by ISU professors Edwards and Duffy.



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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    I was able to get through to it.

    It will be interesting to see what the future will hold for young farmers and land values. I have a younger brother who is 15 and he has aspirations of farming right after high school. We farm about 5000 acres, own about 1500 of it. I think a lot of people have dollar signs in their eyes right now, but the last quote says it all.....in 15 years, we could see what we saw in the early 80's again.



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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    History repeats. The 80's will come back sooner than we think..............


    King James

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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    Quote Originally Posted by jamesfnb View Post
    History repeats. The 80's will come back sooner than we think..............
    I agree with cycles. The biggest difference between then and now is the fact that interest rates are not in the high teens. Also ethanol is demand, so is the increasing population's need for food. In order for lower values we need something to come to the surface that will lower demand and prices of the final product. Even if corn ethanol is replaced with something like celluose based ethanol it still will remove acres of production. The thing that could change all of this in the short term is if a barrell of oil drops back to $30 a gallon.


    I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everyone.

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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    10 years from now we'll kick ourselves for this decision. Hopefully it's a lot of outside investors that take the hit. Ethanol can't compete without heavy government aid.

    I usually look to see what the Japanese are doing in the car market to get an idea which way things are going. I don't see them producing very many E85 compatible cars for the U.S. even though they could rather easily. Toyota has been producing the Prius for a few years now but I've yet to see GM/Ford/Chrysler step up to the plate. When they do it will be some truck that now gets 16mpg instead of 14.



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    Re: Ethanol Is Feeding Hot Market for Farmland (link)

    Unknown is what will come of land prices if corn loses its place in the ethanol world and is surpassed by another source like cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass.
    I think this is the key. I don't expect Corn based ethonal to stay around very long(20 years). Tennesse is in the middle of experimenting with Switchgrass based cellulose ethonal that is 10 times more productive than corn. What they cleverly call grassoline.

    This move to corn based ethonal is nuts. Corn based ethonal only gives off 1 gallon of gas to every gallon used to produce it. There is no net gain. Plus it raises livestock prices and eventually food prices. And in the case of this summer where we have the highest corn acreage since 1944, lowers corn prices. Hopefully next year people come to their senses and plant more than only corn.

    As for young farmers, I can relate as I'm 20 years old and would like to get into farming several years from now. Fortunately for me, my family has a small farm. But if you want to expand, your basically out of luck. $10,000 an acre is crazy.



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