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  1. #1
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    Pomeroy Rating Update

    We have been steadily climbing the ratings over the past few weeks. From being somewhere in the mid 70s in early December to 44th this morning. Moving on to the conference season, he has had us projected at 7-9 for a couple of weeks, but for the first time the individual games projections reflect that. Before the cumulative probabilities of winning games came out to 7-9 but the game by game projections only gave us 5 wins (Tech, OU, KState, NU, CU --all at home). Now a home win over Baylor and a road win over Colorado have been added.

    Based off of his conference record projections ISU would finishe tied for 8th with Okie State. NU and KSU finishing tied for 6th at 8-8. At the risk of getting hopes up too high, neither KSU or NU are exactly world beaters. There are then 4 teams at 10-6 (MU, UT, BU, A&M) and KU at the top at 14-2.

    With the assumption that a win happens tonight over No. Illinois and a 7-9 conference record that puts the season at 20-11 prior to the B12 Tourney. Even one win in KC probably wouldn't be enough to get to the NCAA's in that scenario with our very weak schedule (it had to be weak--no complaints here). However, that kind of resume would seem to lean favorably toward an NIT bid, at least. The NIT isn't a good goal for a team to have in many ways, but in many more ways it would be a great achievement for this team and could be the foundation for next year (think 2004 NIT).

    No matter what the conference record is, if they somehow crack the top 6 those NCAA longshot dreams would be much more favorable. In my mind, if there is a wild dream where that comes true it almost has to start with winning in Lincoln on Saturday.

    If you do click on his link below, the reasons for success are very obvious. In the "Four Factors" section, ISU is doing very well in 6 of the 8 (offensively and defensively), average in offensive rebounding percentage, and only poorly in offensive FTA/FGA.

    Iowa State page on Pomeroy


    Last edited by khaal53; 01-03-2011 at 09:27 AM.


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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    Ugh! Fix your link - it sends you to the Hokeye page!


    "There are five real good recruits in the state. We got three of them. One couldn’t get into school, and the other went to (the University of) Iowa...which is about the same thing." - Coach Johnny Orr

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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    2011 scouting report for Iowa St.

    hopefully that link works out. otherwise just go to the main site, its pretty easy to navigate. just scroll down to number 44.
    Anyways..
    I'm glad I'm not the only one that looks at this site as often as I do haha. It is nice seeing that rating steadily increase as the season has gone on, pretty fitting as our level of play has also risen pretty steadily. Now hopefully we get a couple of nice upset wins and really make his system go bonkers!



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by khaal53 View Post
    NU and KSU finishing tied for 6th at 8-8.
    I have a real problem with this. Not the KSU part.



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    The way I look at it is, if there are 37 at large bids this year with the new format.....we're not far off if you believe we're really the 44th best team.



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Ficklone02 View Post
    The way I look at it is, if there are 37 at large bids this year with the new format.....we're not far off if you believe we're really the 44th best team.
    And, of course there are plenty of teams in the top 25 that will be "automatic qualifiers", because some of those teams will win the conference tournaments. I don't think its rediculous to say we'd have a shot if we won 9 conference games.



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Much better Khaal.

    Note that Xavier is ranked near the top in KPom's % of Possessions Used:

    2011 National Leaders for Percentage of Possessions Used

    Over one third of NIU's possession are ended by Silas, whether that is a turnover or attempted shot.

    I have a problem with his use of this stat. This stat by itself is not a good way to separate players between the categories role players and limited roles. How can Railey and Phillips be role players and Godfrey have a limited role? That is very misleading. A primary rebounder and defender can still be a role player and have a significant role.

    I understand what his stat means, but I really think this a misapplication of it.


    "There are five real good recruits in the state. We got three of them. One couldn’t get into school, and the other went to (the University of) Iowa...which is about the same thing." - Coach Johnny Orr

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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Ficklone02 View Post
    The way I look at it is, if there are 37 at large bids this year with the new format.....we're not far off if you believe we're really the 44th best team.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ficklone02 View Post
    And, of course there are plenty of teams in the top 25 that will be "automatic qualifiers", because some of those teams will win the conference tournaments. I don't think its rediculous to say we'd have a shot if we won 9 conference games.
    Keep in mind though, the NCAA has said that one reason for the expanded field is to increase the opportunities of mid major participation in the tourney. I don't expect there to be a lot more bubble teams from the big conferences make it despite a higher RPI than some of the mid-major teams.

    I expect even more squawking on selection Sunday this year than in past years.


    "There are five real good recruits in the state. We got three of them. One couldn’t get into school, and the other went to (the University of) Iowa...which is about the same thing." - Coach Johnny Orr

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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Wow...ISU's Effective FG defense % is 40.9, 6th best in the country. I'm certain competition has a little to do with that, but given how defense becomes more porous when the game is out of reach, i'm still surprised by this. If we can keep our EFG defense to under 45% in Big 12 play, we'll surprise some people.


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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by ce1 View Post
    Wow...ISU's Effective FG defense % is 40.9, 6th best in the country. I'm certain competition has a little to do with that, but given how defense becomes more porous when the game is out of reach, i'm still surprised by this. If we can keep our EFG defense to under 45% in Big 12 play, we'll surprise some people.
    I believe that kenpom's overall rating comes from a combination of his metric, especially offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

    Our offensive eff # have stayed very much the same this season, somewhere in the 70's. Our defensive number has steadily improved over the last month and we are now the #27 best defensive team in the country, which accounts for our vast improvement in overall ranking.

    As it has been all season, the only major statistical holes this team has are
    1) We don't get to the free throw line (#316), but we don't send the other team to the line at all (#20)
    2) We are a very average offensive rebounding team (#177) but we do a decent job at keeping the other team off the offensive boards (#100)



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by dtclones View Post
    I have a real problem with this. Not the KSU part.
    I just did a quick game-by-game for NU and KSU, and I came up with:
    NU 4-12 to 6-10
    KSU 9-7 or 10-6

    I don't see both teams at 8-8.

    The X-factor is the schedule. NU has Tech, OU and Baylor on the road. That might be a 1-2 stretch. KSU has each of those at home, which is 3-0. UT will probably beat both teams regardless of venue, and A&M might do the same, but even if that's a wash, I don't see NU making up any ground vs. the rest of the schedule to match KSU's record.

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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Hard to say on Nebraska's fortunes because they are just becoming accustomed to life without Stanhardinger. We'll have a better idea on them after Saturday....I think with him they had a shot at a .500 conference record. Without him, I doubt that happens.



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by Ficklone02 View Post
    I don't think (it's ridiculous_ to say we'd have a shot if we won 9 conference games.
    That depends on which teams ISU beat for the 9.

    ISU would have to win these 4: NU, CU, Tech, OU
    Two of these 3: Baylor, @CU, @NU
    The other 3 would need to come from: KU, Mizzou, KSU, @OSU, @A&M — a tall order
    (I see @KSU, @KU, @Missouri and @UT as probable losses — winning any of those would be a bonus; losing all of them wouldn't hurt tournament chances)

    I don't think 9 wins is realistic, but for argument's sake, this probably is what would have to happen to get a bid, at minimum, considering the overall weakness of the non-conference resume.


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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    That depends on which teams ISU beat for the 9.

    ISU would have to win these 4: NU, CU, Tech, OU
    Two of these 3: Baylor, @CU, @NU
    The other 3 would need to come from: KU, Mizzou, KSU, @OSU, @A&M — a tall order
    (I see @KSU, @KU, @Missouri and @UT as probable losses — winning any of those would be a bonus; losing all of them wouldn't hurt tournament chances)

    I don't think 9 wins is realistic, but for argument's sake, this probably is what would have to happen to get a bid, at minimum, considering the overall weakness of the non-conference resume.
    I'm still just hoping for 7 conference wins. The seven I bolded are what I would guess to be our seven wins, if we get to seven. We just always seem to have trouble in Boulder.



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    Re: Pomeroy Rating Update

    Quote Originally Posted by cyclones500 View Post
    That depends on which teams ISU beat for the 9.

    ISU would have to win these 4: NU, CU, Tech, OU
    Two of these 3: Baylor, @CU, @NU
    The other 3 would need to come from: KU, Mizzou, KSU, @OSU, @A&M — a tall order
    (I see @KSU, @KU, @Missouri and @UT as probable losses — winning any of those would be a bonus; losing all of them wouldn't hurt tournament chances)

    I don't think 9 wins is realistic, but for argument's sake, this probably is what would have to happen to get a bid, at minimum, considering the overall weakness of the non-conference resume.
    If you are in top six, you might make the NCAA. If you are 7/8, you might make NIT. If you are 9, think CBA. The rest stay home.


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