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Thread: Bowl Scenario

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    Bowl Scenario

    Of course we have to beat CU first, and hopefully Mizzou. But just in case anyone is worried about us not making a bowl if we are 6-6.

    70 bowl spots.
    29 teams are for sure in (7 wins or more, Hawaii and Navy already accepted).
    18 teams have 6 wins.
    That's 47. 23 open.

    51 teams on bubble (5 wins or less, plus Syracuse with 6, but can still become eligible).

    28 of these teams need to miss out.
    16 of these (3 win, plus ASU which needs 7) teams need to win-out to become eligible, which will be tough. I really don't see any of them doing it. Teams like CU, Tenn, and Florida Int.
    15 of these (4 win) teams need 2 wins with either 3 or 4 games left. ND, Indiana...
    20 of these (5 win and Syracuse with 6) teams need 1 win with either 2, 3 or 4 games left.

    Idaho plays 13 regular season games. They are 4-5 with 4 games left. If they finish 6-7, how does that work. Still eligible, or do they need 7 wins with the extra game?

    Let's just win both then we don't have to worry about any of this!


    Last edited by ISUcy08; 11-10-2010 at 03:20 PM.
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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    I would say with our schedule and following we are in at 6,7 would be a better location though....



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by jburke View Post
    I would say with our schedule and following we are in at 6,7 would be a better location though....
    I agree. I was just interested in seeing how many possible teams can go to a bowl yet.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUcy08 View Post
    Of course we have to beat CU first, and hopefully Mizzou. But just in case anyone is worried about us not making a bowl if we are 6-6.

    70 bowl spots.
    29 teams are for sure in (7 wins or more, Hawaii and Navy already accepted).
    18 teams have 6 wins.
    That's 47. 23 open.

    49 teams on bubble (5 wins or less, plus Syracuse with 6, but can still become eligible).

    26 of these teams need to miss out.
    13 of these (3 win) teams need to win-out to become eligible, which will be tough. I really don't see any of them doing it. Teams like CU, Tenn, and Florida Int.
    16 of these (4 win) teams need 2 wins with either 3 or 4 games left. ND, Indiana...
    20 of these (5 win and Syracuse with 6) teams need 1 win with either 2, 3 or 4 games left.

    Idaho plays 13 regular season games. They are 4-5 with 4 games left. If they finish 6-7, how does that work. Still eligible, or do they need 7 wins with the extra game?

    Let's just win both then we don't have to worry about any of this!
    First - Awesome post, thanks for looking up the info!

    Idaho would not be eligible at 6-7. However, bowls have taken teams that have losing records in order to fill slots if their aren't enough eligible teams. To be eligible you need to have at least a .500 record.



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUcy08 View Post
    Idaho plays 13 regular season games. They are 4-5 with 4 games left. If they finish 6-7, how does that work. Still eligible, or do they need 7 wins with the extra game!
    You have to finish with a .500 record or better. 6 wins has been the standard for as long as I have had conscious thought (30+ years) because 6 wins ensured the .500 season under both the 11-game and 12-game schedules, and because of that it's easy to say "6 wins gets you into a bowl game".

    Now you understand why that Mizzou game back in 2002 was so critical - had we lost that game, we would have been 6-7 and on the outside looking in when earlier in the year we were sitting at 6-1 with a #9 national ranking.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by Clones33 View Post
    First - Awesome post, thanks for looking up the info!

    Idaho would not be eligible at 6-7. However, bowls have taken teams that have losing records in order to fill slots if their aren't enough eligible teams. To be eligible you need to have at least a .500 record.
    What happens in the hypothetical case where a team goes 0-4 in non conference, goes 4-4 or even 5-3 in conference and due to tie-breakers wins their division and then wins a conference championship game to finish the regular season at 5-8 or 6-7? Do they still get an automatic BCS bowl bid? I'm guessing no, but if that scenario ever came up for one of the power teams (Mich, USC, Texas, etc) I bet the NCAA would grant them a waiver or come up with some kind of bull **** excuse to let them in.



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUcy08 View Post
    Of course we have to beat CU first, and hopefully Mizzou. But just in case anyone is worried about us not making a bowl if we are 6-6.

    70 bowl spots.
    29 teams are for sure in (7 wins or more, Hawaii and Navy already accepted).
    18 teams have 6 wins.
    That's 47. 23 open.

    49 teams on bubble (5 wins or less, plus Syracuse with 6, but can still become eligible).

    26 of these teams need to miss out.
    13 of these (3 win) teams need to win-out to become eligible, which will be tough. I really don't see any of them doing it. Teams like CU, Tenn, and Florida Int.
    16 of these (4 win) teams need 2 wins with either 3 or 4 games left. ND, Indiana...
    20 of these (5 win and Syracuse with 6) teams need 1 win with either 2, 3 or 4 games left.

    Idaho plays 13 regular season games. They are 4-5 with 4 games left. If they finish 6-7, how does that work. Still eligible, or do they need 7 wins with the extra game?

    Let's just win both then we don't have to worry about any of this!
    I pulled something together myself. I came up with a few differences.

    -I agree that 47 teams have 6 or more wins and are eligible.
    -There are actually 51 teams that are on the bubble vying for 23 spots.
    -14 teams need to finish up 3-0 to qualify. You probably missed AZ St. who also played two FCS teams.
    -4 teams need 3-1 or better
    -11 teams need 2-1 or better
    -4 teams need 1-1 or better (includes ISU)
    -3 teams need 2-2 or better
    -11 teams need 1-2 or better
    -4 teams need 1-3 or better

    And yes, Idaho needs to go 3-1 (7-6) or better to qualify.

    Edit: Interestingly only 22 teams are out of the bowl hunt so far.


    Last edited by VeloClone; 11-10-2010 at 12:28 PM.
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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by synapticwave View Post
    What happens in the hypothetical case where a team goes 0-4 in non conference, goes 4-4 or even 5-3 in conference and due to tie-breakers wins their division and then wins a conference championship game to finish the regular season at 5-8 or 6-7? Do they still get an automatic BCS bowl bid? I'm guessing no, but if that scenario ever came up for one of the power teams (Mich, USC, Texas, etc) I bet the NCAA would grant them a waiver or come up with some kind of bull **** excuse to let them in.
    Without looking it up, I believe that if you win your conference championship game the BCS MUST select your for one of its bowl games - regardless of your record.



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by VeloClone View Post
    I pulled something together myself. I came up with a few differences.

    -I agree that 47 teams have 6 or more wins and are eligible.
    -There are actually 51 teams that are on the bubble vying for 23 spots. You probably missed AZ St. who also played two FCS teams.
    -14 teams need to finish up 3-0 to qualify.
    -4 teams need 3-1 or better
    -11 teams need 2-1 or better
    -4 teams need 1-1 or better (includes ISU)
    -3 teams need 2-2 or better
    -11 teams need 1-2 or better
    -4 teams need 1-3 or better

    And yes, Idaho needs to go 3-1 (7-6) or better to qualify.

    Edit: Interestingly only 22 teams are out of the bowl hunt so far.
    I haven't done the math or research that you have done (and thanks for that!), but did either of you include USC?



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by Clones33 View Post
    I haven't done the math or research that you have done (and thanks for that!), but did either of you include USC?
    Yes, I did:

    "Interestingly only 22 teams are out of the bowl hunt so far."



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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by VeloClone View Post
    I pulled something together myself. I came up with a few differences.

    -I agree that 47 teams have 6 or more wins and are eligible.
    -There are actually 51 teams that are on the bubble vying for 23 spots. You probably missed AZ St. who also played two FCS teams.
    -14 teams need to finish up 3-0 to qualify.
    -4 teams need 3-1 or better
    -11 teams need 2-1 or better
    -4 teams need 1-1 or better (includes ISU)
    -3 teams need 2-2 or better
    -11 teams need 1-2 or better
    -4 teams need 1-3 or better

    And yes, Idaho needs to go 3-1 (7-6) or better to qualify.

    Edit: Interestingly only 22 teams are out of the bowl hunt so far.
    I have ASU. But they are basically out. That means they HAVE to win the last three games and that won't happen. They play Stanford and Arizona.
    I did leave out a couple teams that HAVE NO SHOT because they are bad teams playing ranked teams, and must win out.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by Clones33 View Post
    I haven't done the math or research that you have done (and thanks for that!), but did either of you include USC?
    No I did not. They are ineligible. That might be why he has more than me.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by ISUcy08 View Post
    No I did not. They are ineligible. That might be why he has more than me.
    It's not. See my response above. I included them in the 22 who are already ineligible.

    By the way, I erred. The note about AZ St. should have followed the teams that need to finish 3-0.

    You did good work on your research, though.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    Quote Originally Posted by VeloClone View Post
    It's not. See my response above. I included them in the 22 who are already ineligible.

    By the way, I erred. The note about AZ St. should have followed the teams that need to finish 3-0.

    You did good work on your research, though.
    Sorry I didn't see that. I will keep it updated.

    Games to keep an eye on next two nights.
    Miami (OH) can become eligible tonight vs BG.
    If Pitt wins tomorrow night they will be eligible at 6 wins, and UConn will be stuck on 4 with 3 to go.
    If East Carolina wins tomorrow night they will be eligible at 6 wins, and UAB will be OUT with 3 wins and 2 games to go.


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    Re: Bowl Scenario

    It's a little crazy, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Pac-10 could only have three teams bowl eligible. Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona are already bowl eligible. USC is on probation and Washington State will have a losing record. That leaves the following:

    Oregon State needs to go 2-2 or better against Washington State, USC, at Stanford, and Oregon. They'll beat Wazzu, but if they lose to USC they're probably done.

    California only needs to win one of their final three games, but those are against Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. They're all at home though and Cal plays well there so it's a good bet they will at least beat Washington.

    Arizona State needs to win their final three games against Stanford, UCLA, and at Arizona. Not going to happen.

    UCLA needs to win two of three at Washington, at Arizona State, and home against USC. I wouldn't count on it.

    Washington needs to win out against UCLA, at Cal, and at Washington State. Probably not happening.



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