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  1. #1
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    A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Here's what I'm predicting for the MBB team this upcoming season, revised:
    Format: Team, Prediction, Notes

    Northern Arizona (h), W, Easy non-conference foe. Should win

    Alabama State (h), W, Same as N. AZ

    Drake (h), W, Drake is quietly assembling a potentially very good MVC team. Look for this game to come down to the wire with a close ISU win.

    Creighton (h @ the Well), W, (The Bluejays will probably be down this year after a coaching change.) Change this game to the and "L" as Creighton is one the Valley favorites this year despite a major coaching change.

    Kennesaw State (h), W, Kids, can we say "cupcake"?

    Montana State (h), W, See Kennesaw State

    Northern Iowa (a), L, UNI should field another very good team even though they're in a rebuilding year and the game's on the road.

    California (h), W, UCal-Berkeley is in a down year and the game's at home. A Pac 10 team ripe for the picking.

    Southeast Missouri State (h), W, An OVC team at home -- probable.

    Iowa (a), W, The Hawkeyes aren't significantly better after a coaching change than before if even if the game's at Iowa City.

    Texas Southern (h), W, See Kennesaw State

    Dartmouth (h), W, An Ivy League school at home, so a low scoring game. ISU wins.

    Chicago State (h), W, See Kennesaw State

    Virginia (a), (L) W, (A very tough ACC foe on the road. ISU's first big loss.) Change from the "big loss" category to a possible win with UVa picked dead last in the ACC.

    Northern Illinois (h), W, A MAC team at home -- probable.

    Nebraska (a), W, It's Nebraska Men's Basketball, need I say more? Probably ISU's only conference road victory.

    Kansas (h), L, One the Big 12 front runners. I don't see ISU winning this one even if the game’s at home.

    Baylor (h), L, With LaceDarius Dunn playing a loss, without him playing, a possible win at home.

    Oklahoma State (a), L, A Big 12 first division team on the road; don't see ISU winning here either.

    Missouri (a), L, A Big 12 favorite on the road. ISU's first big loss.

    Texas Tech (h), W, A second division Big 12 team at home. ISU wins.

    Oklahoma (h), W, The second worst team in the Big 12 per the Coaches Poll at home. Should win.

    Colorado (a), L, Boulder's altitude always gives ISU players fits, plus CU fields a decent team this year. Look for a loss here.

    Kansas State (h), L, The Big 12 front-runner at home. ISU still loses.

    Kansas (a), L, KU at The Phog. A big loss again.

    Texas A&M (a), L, One of the better second division Big 12 foes on the road; no win here.

    Missouri (h), L, Mizzou at home; still a loss.

    Texas (a), L, UT on the road, a definite loss.

    Nebraska (h), W, If Nebbie can't beat ISU at their place, how can they beat the 'Clones at Hilton?

    Colorado (h), W, ISU picks up its final home and conference win here.

    Kansas State (a), L, Yet another big loss on the road to a conference favorite.

    Final Overall Record -- 19-14 NIT, here we come? A major step forward for the program.

    Final Conference Record -- 5-11 A five win conference season at this stage of the program is pretty decent IMO.
    As evidenced with my projections, I'm far more optimistic than all the "doom and gloom" prognosticators. The season will be a disappointment if the 'Clones win only 12 games. A 14 to 19 win season is more in line vis-a-vis the teams they'll play this year, and this is a really "cupcake-ish" schedule. I really feel an above .500 record is probable. Cal, particularly, is a candidate for a win against a team from a "top tier" conference. I think the 'Clones will be strong at home, but a weak road team. Hence my predictions for the upcoming season.


    Last edited by drednot57; 10-16-2010 at 01:00 AM.
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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    I think we could end up with a better record than last year.

    Garret could be near dominate this year, especially if his shot has improved. Scotty will be healthy. Add in Phillips and Anderson, and it's a better backcourt than we have had in years. I think Ejim can replace Glistrap's net impact on the game.

    Of course, we will miss Brackins and Hamilton down low, but we can hide it to a degree with good coaching/style of play. I expect Railey to be similar to Hamilton as a freshman, and Godfrey/McKnight will provide some depth. The key may be to get JVB to play hard inside. Someone get him some NO-Explode or at least a Rock Star before each game.


    Last edited by WhoISthis; 10-11-2010 at 06:10 AM.

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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by WhoISthis View Post
    I think we could end up with a better record than last year.

    Garret could be near dominate this year, especially if his shot has improved. Scotty will be healthy. Add in Phillips and Anderson, and it's a better backcourt than we have had in years. I think Ejim can replace Glistrap's net impact on the game.

    Of course, we will miss Brackins and Hamilton down low, but we can hide it to a degree with good coaching/style of play. I expect Railey to be similar to Hamilton as a freshman, and Godfrey/McKnight will provide some depth. The key may be to get JVB to play hard inside. Someone get him some NO-Explode or at least a Rock Star before each game.




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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    I think 14-18 is the right win range, maybe as low as 12 if we get multiple injuries.

    But I don't think 18-13 with that schedule gets us into the NIT.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoCubsGo View Post
    Did you get to see the KSU game last year? He has it in him. When you add the qualifier of Garrett improving his outside shot, him becoming near dominate is hardly laughable.

    He should roll through the non-conference portion, picking up a lot of confidence.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    One thing that would help your breakdown is to distinguish road games from home games right up front. It adds more context to what you're writing there.


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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    I think we lose to all the 3 of Valley teams we play. I really see us struggling early on and losing some games to teams we should beat while this team gels. Sadly I think some of the no name teams in the early part of the schedule will be well known to ISU fans in a month or 2. We don't have the talent, especially in the backcourt to show up and beat teams. I've got us right around .500 in the non conference, I hope I'm wrong and the blind faith of the OP prevails. The only way we win more than 10 games is if we have a guard show the ability to consistantly score, DG has proven he's not that guy, maybe one of the new kids is.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by heitclone View Post
    I think we lose to all the 3 of Valley teams we play. I really see us struggling early on and losing some games to teams we should beat while this team gels. Sadly I think some of the no name teams in the early part of the schedule will be well known to ISU fans in a month or 2. We don't have the talent, especially in the backcourt to show up and beat teams. I've got us right around .500 in the non conference, I hope I'm wrong and the blind faith of the OP prevails. The only way we win more than 10 games is if we have a guard show the ability to consistantly score, DG has proven he's not that guy, maybe one of the new kids is.
    We have the most talented backcourt since Will and Curtis. We will see if it is enough.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by WhoISthis View Post
    We have the most talented backcourt since Will and Curtis. We will see if it is enough.
    I don't think we know that yet, I didn't mean to come off too harsh on DG. He's a solid PG and is going to be a huge part of any sucess we'll have this year but he hasn't shown the ability to consistantly score, or to carry this team when it needs buckets(which Will and Curtis could both do). Scotty hasn't shown anything more than that he is a solid role player. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the newcomers to put up points because in college basketball you're only as good as your guards, we had a great big man the last couple years and without good guard play look where that got us. Who knows maybe the returning guys will step up and show something we havent seen from them before. But as of now DG and SC haven't shown they belong in a conversation with Stinson and Bynum.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Garrett has experience.
    I have a feeling he's going to be given more freedom to try to make plays instead of whatever it was we were trying to do, last year.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by heitclone View Post
    I don't think we know that yet, I didn't mean to come off too harsh on DG. He's a solid PG and is going to be a huge part of any sucess we'll have this year but he hasn't shown the ability to consistantly score, or to carry this team when it needs buckets(which Will and Curtis could both do). Scotty hasn't shown anything more than that he is a solid role player. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the newcomers to put up points because in college basketball you're only as good as your guards, we had a great big man the last couple years and without good guard play look where that got us. Who knows maybe the returning guys will step up and show something we havent seen from them before. But as of now DG and SC haven't shown they belong in a conversation with Stinson and Bynum.
    Did you misread my post? I said we should have our best backcourt since Will and Curtis.
    I do not really think that is speculating much. Senior DG should be better than Fr, So, and Jr DG. He is also better than Corey Mac. A healthy Scotty is better than sick Scotty. He is also better than Peterson and Haluska. Likewise for Phillips, given he is on a scholarship. Anderson is better than any 3rd/4th guard we have had since Tasheed Carr. Obviously, we appear not to have a Mike Taylor on the roster, but overall it should be a step up.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    My first run-through with the new schedule came to 18-13, but I might back it down a couple of wins when I make an "official" one.

    Only places I really disagree with you are Iowa and Cal in non-conference, and I'm not convinced we'll take Baylor at home.

    Iowa is still going to be down, but it seems like winning in Iowa City is never a safe bet.

    Cal I think will take advantage of a team probably still finding its way.

    I won't count Drake as a W, either, but I don't see losing to both Iowa and Drake.

    Baylor never wins in Ames, but this could be an exception. But if that does happen, I see an unexpected win somewhere else (Not sure where!)

    I suppose we could drop a non-league game that looks like a sure win, too. I don't know which opponent I'd choose for that.

    Note: Two teams you listed as MVC teams are in other conferences -- SEMO is in Ohio Valley; Northern Illinois is MAC. No biggie. You probably just confused SE Missouri State w/ SW Missouri State (which is now Missouri State) and No. Illinois for So. Illinois.


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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Ill sign for double digit wins right now.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by bawbie View Post
    But I don't think 18-13 with that schedule gets us into the NIT.
    Correct.



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    Re: A More Optimistic 2010-11 MBB Projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rural View Post
    Garrett has experience.
    I have a feeling he's going to be given more freedom to try to make plays instead of whatever it was we were trying to do, last year.
    Yeah, what were we trying to do last year? DG will be a better shooter under Fred's guidance. SC will be potent also. I have more faith in this year's bball team than next year's fball team at this point. Our talent matches up better in bball than in fball.


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