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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    lol. Like it hadn't gone already!

    Seriously though, we did pretty well this time. Might fall on my face next time. Nature of forecasting. I'll be here before/after either way.

    Not going to...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Well, the whole thing is in the books now...here are final totals from the NWS. Forecast in parenthesis.

    Des Moines Ariport 4.1" (4.35, 3-5)
    Perry 8"
    Ames 7" (8.3, 7-9)
    Jefferson 8.5"
    Eldora...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Yeah somewhere along the transition line was going to bust, such a sharp changeover.

    Though there are a couple of pockets of thundersnow again from Grand Junction to Zearing, so they might at...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    I-35 is currently "Normal Winter Driving Conditions" as of 1:40 pm from Ankeny to Ames.

    Travel not advised north of Story City.

    This link should stay up to date. Road conditions
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    What time did you make the drive?

    My brother took this picture at 9 AM looking out the living room window on the farm, NW of Clarion....
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Well, with 2.5" on the ground in Des Moines and the snow stopped, I think this went pretty well. Temperatures were actually a degree or two warmer at 34/35 in Des Moines this AM than even I was...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Snow will stop early afternoon Ames/Hwy 30 east. Getting to Ames probably won't be a major issue, but after the game, temps will have dropped, winds still roaring, and another round of snow,...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Would not shock me to see a period of rain/sleet on the front end of the snow very early morning, and I do think as the snow winds down mid-morning toward lunch, we could go back to light rain.

    I...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    So the short version is I'm going 3.5 to 5.5 in DSM right now, with a 5 to 9 for Ames, potentially in two waves in Ames.

    Carroll to Mason City give or take a few miles either way (NW/SE) will...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    The gradient on the cutoff line is going to be nuts, and leads to a pretty decent chance of this forecast busting, pretty much a guarantee for somebody some where. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5"...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    60% of the time, we're right every time.:wink:

    Seriously though, here's a great blog on the issue. And highlights some of the problems, namely being not even all mets are playing by the same...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Also, that's a lot of numbers and a lot of % to fit into 140 characters, or just a 3 minute weather segment in which most people aren't even devoting 100% attention to.

    It's a dilemma, because you...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Judging from that graphic, it would appear Omaha posted that before DSM updated their grids.

    See the sharp southern disconnected in the yellow south of Atlantic...that is the county line where the...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    I would like to give only ranges too. But you know what happens?

    People complain. And call us out, and demand we tell them what is going to happen and not just cover our butt.

    Everyone thinks...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    I don't think it will be as bad during the afternoon south and east of Ames. Late evening temperatures will start to drop and an additional bit of light snow may wrap in that would blow around...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Game travel from the SE looking better. Travel from NW still looks bad.

    Dry slot could take over the SE 1/2 of the state by 10 AM to noon tomorrow. Still play it by ear, but looking better than...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Yes, that is basically what I feel is reasonable for the extreme edge of who could end up getting very little snow. Again that is only a best/worst case scenario (depending on your perspective).
    ...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Rain to snow changeover time coupled with timing of the dry slot moving in looks like a major issue roughly along/SE of Highway 169/Highway 30 boundary. Snow totals have the possibility of ending up...
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Standard deviation for high temperatures in July gets down to like 5 or 6 degrees, and in January gets up to some l thing like 15 to 17.

    More info than you probably wanted, but, stats!
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    Re: Possible huge snow storm next week?

    Albedo effect.

    Snow is white, so it reflects most of the suns energy making very tough to warm up. Effect is most dramatic on fresh snow...the older and dirtier it gets, the more heat it absorbs...
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