SoS for 2014

Discussion in 'Football' started by cycophagus, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. cycophagus

    cycophagus Member

    Aug 17, 2012
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    ISU football's strength of schedule for season 123 will once again be among the elite, as it has been during the entire Rhode's era. This could be the most difficult ever. Posistive factors, though, are the 7 home games, versus 5 away games on the schedule, in addition to 2 well spaced bye weeks.

    Here is Phil Steele's compilation using the traditional NCAA method, which accounts only for opponent's previous season W/L's.:
    http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/MAR14/DBMar15.html

    ISU's schedule, #7 overall, is strongest of all Big 12 schools. OU's, #93, is the lowest. Their oppoents were actually sub .500 last year, as are the I-Hawks, whose schedule comes in at #85.

    Interesting note: Dan McCarney's Green Machine will no doubt continue their ascension to prominence versus the #127 schedule, even though it includes a road trip to Austin.

    Here is another view from SB Nation, ranking only the non-conference schedules:
    http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/2/26/5401692/2014-college-football-out-of-conference-schedules-best-worst

    ISU's schedule rank's #2 overall, trailing only Texas. 3-peat FCS champ NDSU, 4-0 versus the FBS in recent years, is no doubt a big reason for that.

    Interesting note: Four Missouri Valley teams are including in the top 10 strongest slates of opponents. Again, these are strictly about W/L's from last year, but it is still something you would not expect.
     
  2. Aclone

    Aclone Well-Known Member

    Dec 14, 2007
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    Who is this Rhode's?
     
  3. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member

    Aug 11, 2011
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    Every year (in perpetuity right now) we are going to have...

    Round-robin with 9/10 in the Big XII
    Iowa
    UNI/MVC team
    Somebody else from a Division 1-A low-level conference, typically a MAC team

    We might as well get used to this.
     
  4. pulse

    pulse Well-Known Member

    Mar 24, 2006
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    Our strength of schedule is seriously the biggest non-story of all time. Life in our conference dating back to the Big 8.
     
  5. Luth4Cy

    Luth4Cy Well-Known Member

    Sep 19, 2012
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    I wish the Big 12 would schedule one conference game for each team at a neutral site every season. That way every team would have the same number of home and away conference games.
     
  6. Istate

    Istate Active Member

    Jul 15, 2008
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    Toughest from Hardest to Easiest

    1) OU........Not going to win this one. Too many reasons to list
    2) Texas....Not going to win this one. New excitement and toughness at Texas
    3) OSU......Highly unlikely. Too many athletes
    4) Iowa.....Highly unlikely. Too strong in the trenches
    5) TCU......Unlikely but not improbable. Can they find a QB that can throw a forward pass?
    6) TTech....Unlikely but not improbable. Tech's offense is going to be very good
    7) Baylor.....Unlikely but not improbable. Baylor still has a ton of speed
    8) KSU.......Possible. KSU has ISU's # but worst KSU since Snyder has been back
    9) WVU......Possible. Home game. 20 degrees out. Thinking Kansas '13 game all over
    10) NDSU....Probable. Lost some key starters and the head man himself. Loras coach beat ISU? Nope
    11) Kansas..Probable. KU wasn't good last year and won't be better this year.
    12) Toledo...Probable. Toledo won't be as bad as some might hope, but ISU doesn't lose to MAC at home
     
  7. IceCyIce

    IceCyIce Well-Known Member

    Aug 18, 2009
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    Injuries at the end of the year will cost us two of these wins. out of the 5 possible's - that will end up being 2-3 wins for next season. Hope Im wrong
     
  8. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    Cue lake Bison.....
     
  9. cycophagus

    cycophagus Member

    Aug 17, 2012
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    I recall this is coach Rhoad's :)smile:) opinion as well. Commish Bowlsby said that the same issue in the Pac 10 just could not be solved, so I doubt he will would push it.

    Farmageddon @ Arrowhead was awesome. Do you suppose KU would agree to a 2 year deal there?
     
  10. madguy30

    madguy30 Active Member

    Nov 16, 2011
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    ...the schedule's not that daunting if ISU had some decent talent.

    So, it's going to be daunting for them.
     
  11. Erik4Cy

    Erik4Cy Well-Known Member

    Jan 23, 2007
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    Why are we not scheduling like Iowa does?

    Toledo is as bad as it gets..

    Where is Tennessee Tech when you need them?
     
  12. bostrem00

    bostrem00 Well-Known Member

    Feb 24, 2009
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    Isn't that the annual preseason story?
     
  13. mtowncyclone13

    mtowncyclone13 Well-Known Member

    Oct 11, 2012
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    How can two teams that both play round Robin in same conference be 90 spots apart?
     
  14. BBHMagic

    BBHMagic Well-Known Member

    Oct 16, 2009
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    The 7th toughest schedule isn't daunting? Are you high or not good at math?
     
  15. huntt26

    huntt26 Well-Known Member

    Apr 10, 2006
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    No offense, but even if we had an easy schedule I don't think we'd win many games either
     
  16. dualthreat

    dualthreat Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2008
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    We had a very tough schedule in 2012 and pretty easy in 2013. In 2012 I really think we were in the 25-35 caliber ranking yet only finished 6-7. Last year UNI, Iowa, Tulsa, Texas, Tech, TCU, Kansas and West Va weren't all that great. That's 8 teams we would have beaten with our 2012 team.
     
  17. madguy30

    madguy30 Active Member

    Nov 16, 2011
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    Didn't Steele have it at 6th or something last year? I wouldn't say they played a lot of real good teams. Lots of average teams that looked really good against ISU.

    That schedule has a lot of games that a team with some talent should at least be competitive in.
     
  18. Cycsk

    Cycsk Well-Known Member

    Aug 17, 2009
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    This is a good question. Some of it comes from the fact that we play them (highly rated) and they play us (lowly rated), but that can't account for all 90 spots.
     
  19. BBHMagic

    BBHMagic Well-Known Member

    Oct 16, 2009
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    I never said we wouldn't be competitive, I'm just saying there are about 100+ other schedules I'd rather face than the one we got.
     
  20. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member

    Aug 11, 2011
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    I don't see why everybody is so horrifically down on football for next year.

    Granted, I don't think we'll be good, and seeing the Rhoads program "stall" at 6-6 is a little annoying (much better than Chizik, sure, and that one year at 7-5 with the road win at Nebraska and inspiring speeches was great, as was beating Texas in Austin, as was beating the #2 team in the country). Then again, remember how last year went down:

    UNI - don't remind me, ugh don't remind me, but I hope we're done losing to MVC teams forever
    Iowa - didn't go so well, but they didn't blow us out, neither program is really that good right now
    Tulsa - won the rubber match, on the road, easily enough
    Texas - remember how we almost won this? granted, that was one of the worst Texas teams we'll ever see, but we can play with some people
    Texas Tech - played with them, though that was almost more them trying to give us the game than anything else
    Baylor - hey, they were really good
    Oklahoma State - likewise
    Kansas State - really wasn't hoping for or expecting that...
    TCU - one more drive at the end and we win this
    Oklahoma - nope
    Kansas - easy win
    WVU - 3OT thriller, but at least we went out with a win

    3-9

    Two of those were blowouts in *our direction.*

    WVU could have went either way, but we found a way in the end.

    Three more were games we easily could have won (Texas, TCU, UNI).

    Right there is 6-6. I don't think we were as bad as people thought last year--we've always had these blowout incidents, even in bowl years, we just didn't win close games last year in the same way we did the year or two before, and injuries ravaged us at so many positions.

    Let's not forget how horrific our offense was most of the year. Assuming the defense stays the same and Magino can do something to the offense, I'd give us something like this:

    NDSU = 80%
    KSU = 35%
    Iowa = 30%
    Baylor = 15%
    OSU = 15%
    Toledo = 80%
    Texas = 10%
    Oklahoma = 5%
    Kansas = 75%
    Texas Tech = 50%
    West Virginia = 65%
    TCU = 40%

    = 5 wins, most likely NDSU, Toledo, Kansas, Texas Tech (at home), West Virginia, and TCU

    I would probably scratch TCU as a win and pick an upset (I'll say KSU early in the season in Ames, given neither team is "settled" and I think we're due) in there if I had to guess now for 5-7

    We have to remember how awful our offense was the past however while. If Magino breathes some sort of life into it (and his track record suggests he will) we have to take a step forward from "down" last year to "back" to where we were as an average team that might sneak into a bowl game on an extremely tough schedule on winning a few close games and a big upset or two.
     

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