Phil Steele #s, ISU season Wins, & ...Beer???

Discussion in 'Football' started by BaxterClone, Jul 18, 2014.

  1. BaxterClone

    BaxterClone New Member

    Jul 16, 2014
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    Many college football fanatics read Steele's magazine each summer. While reading it and his blog from June 30 I noticed ISU was a team that met some of his trends. Last yr ISU was 3-9 and Sportsbooks have O/U @ 3.5 for 2014.

    ISU netted 3 close losses last yr. ISU won 1 game by a TD or less but lost 4 by a TD or less. Over the past 12 yrs teams with 3 net close losses have same or better record 79.6% of the time the following yr.
    ***WV game counted even though 8 pt win (triple OT)

    Defensive yards per point. Last yr opponents averaged 1 pt for every 12.86 yards. As we know this is not good! 2 teams had over 500 yards offense vs ISU, 1 team over 600, and 1 team over 700. The positive is since 1990 teams in this category have same or better record the following yr 69.4% of the time.

    Lastly Steele has ISU a +3 on his stock indicator. This factors in performance over the past few yrs. Since 1990 teams with a +3 have same or better record 73.7% of the time.

    In conclusion, 3.5 wins could be a tough wager to make. However, if u have a friend or know someone who is an ISU hater you may be able to bet them O/U 3 wins. If ISU wins 3 you push and 4 you win. Much better than the 3.5. Maybe someone can win a case of beer off a buddy using this info!
    HAVE A GREAT DAY CYCLONE NATION!!
     
  2. isu81

    isu81 Active Member

    Mar 6, 2013
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    Have a really hard time thinking we don't win at least 4. Give me NDSU, Toledo and Kansas and we only have to win one of the other 9? That has to be achievable.
     
  3. BaxterClone

    BaxterClone New Member

    Jul 16, 2014
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    I lean towards 4 wins also. ND St graduated lots of players. ISU Is 13-2 last 15 home openers in Ames. ISU has won 4 straight vs Kansas by average of 19 pts. ISU is also 6-3 last 9 home finales (play WV this yr). Now ISU needs to beat Toledo and ISU will have 4 wins. Plus ISU is capable of upsetting teams. Figure in Steeles numbers from above and it seems doable. However if I am backing it with money I personally would stay off over/under 3.5 but would bet a friend some beer at 3. The stats mentioned in this post are also from Phil Steele.
     
  4. iowast8fan

    iowast8fan Well-Known Member

    Aug 3, 2006
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    Embarrassing to have such a crappy team that our own fan base is debating about whether 3.5 is a good bet for O/U.
     
  5. bos

    bos Legend
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    Apr 10, 2006
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    Exactly. Anything short of a 6-6 breaks my heart. And by now, we should be expecting more than that.
     
  6. Aclone

    Aclone Well-Known Member

    Dec 14, 2007
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    I think it's more the negative nellies of the fanbase that are the problem, willing to believe absolutely anything negative that anyone says, regardless of justification--or lack thereof.
     
  7. Goothrey

    Goothrey Well-Known Member

    May 6, 2009
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    I think those percentages are high because its hard to be much worse. 4-8 is looking like your best bet.
     
  8. CTTB78

    CTTB78 Well-Known Member

    Apr 8, 2006
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    There are probably a significant number (including me) that are waiting to see what happens on August 30. If we return to UNI form, the negative vibe will be far from Nellie. I'm hoping that the current coaching staff will have them ready for the opener, unlike last year.
     
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  9. stateofmind

    stateofmind Well-Known Member

    Jul 17, 2007
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    Last season we were limping from a bowl loss. I think the guys thought you could just show up and you make a bowl. This year they had to listen to how awful they were. Couple that with arguably the best staff we've ever had at ISU and we may surprise some people. We just have to stay healthy and get some confidence in the first game and build off that.
     
  10. SyracuseCyclone

    Oct 10, 2012
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    After ISU's second bye they play 4 AWFUL teams to end the year.

    An 0-8 ISU team could win out the last 4 games.

    @KU TTech (Kingsberry is a clown like Holgerson and is backing a kid who punched a woman they will fall apart by Nov 22 much better than playing them early) WVA @TCU (high quit factor here too that Boykin will be long gone prob will have 3rd string QB in)

    4 easy wins at the end of the year.

    So over is a good bet. Beat NDSU and it comes in.

    But theres no real easy games after NDSU until the bye after Oklahoma. Toledo could win the MAC.
     
  11. heitclone

    heitclone Well-Known Member

    Jun 22, 2009
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    There are far more ppl who are unrealistically positive, I think we're better than a 3 win team 4.5 would be a more accurate discussion IMO. To me the expectations are more about what we've seen than ppl just being negative. The same ppl with super high expectations will be the ones making excuses if things don't go great. You can already fill in the "It takes X amount of seasons to learn Mangino's offense" for every thread about the offense struggling.
     
  12. BaxterClone

    BaxterClone New Member

    Jul 16, 2014
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    Boykin likely will be at WR or RB and on kick returns this yr with the Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel playing QB. TCU will be tough this yr. TCU should be an 8 win team. For the 1st time since joining B12 they have a team with upperclassmen.
    Completely agree about Toledo, no one should pencil them in as a W, they will be a solid team.
     
  13. DFWClone

    DFWClone Member

    Aug 19, 2013
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    Negative nellies? Vegas set the W/L total at 3.5 and we lost to UNI last season when we were a 9.5 favorite. I think the people you call "negative nellies" are just being realistic about this team.
     
  14. Agreed. I would sign up for 6-6 and a Bowl loss right now for this year though, but would certainly expect more in 2015.
     
  15. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    WE WILL MAKE MINCEMEAT OUT OF TOLEDO FOR HOMECOMING.
     
  16. Wesley

    Wesley Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    Will Mangino run it up on KU?
     
  17. DuckDynastyCy

    DuckDynastyCy Member

    Feb 8, 2013
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    Lot of games that could go either way if we stay healthy. Improvement throughout the year will be the key. I feel really good about this coaching staff. I have a wait and see attitude, and know not to count out CPR for an upset or two...last year's upset was stolen by the refs (and that stupid 2nd quarter TD to end the half). Either way, we had Texas dead to rights, and a win there could have really changed the tide for last year. So for all you whiners out there, get on or get off, but quit it with the negativity. We will always be underdogs in the Big 12, get used to it.
     
  18. BWRhasnoAC

    BWRhasnoAC Active Member

    Apr 11, 2013
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    Problem is we have no backing to believe ISU will ever come out of the dumpster since they pretty much never have come out of the dumpster. All the realists will cry fowl and when we fail, cry that they were smarter. Sure play the odds, but it doesn't mean berate the people with a positive attitude moving forwards.
     
  19. cyatheart

    cyatheart Well-Known Member

    Nov 19, 2008
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    i love over how people think we are going to roll into tcu and beat them and beat tech at home. Very low chance of either. Toledo could easily whoop this team. I see no reason to think Toledo is a win, at best ndsu and Toledo are toss ups. I am as optimistic as anyone, but people need to understand this is not the year to expect anything. This team will struggle to get to 3 wins, 4 wins out if this group and pr should be coach for life.
     
  20. Me State

    Me State Well-Known Member

    Oct 19, 2007
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    I'm willing to bet people said that exact same thing CPR's first year also.

    I think this team is going to surprise people this year. Improved coaching and hopefully fewer injuries(knock on wood) should equal a few extra wins.
     

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