***Iowa Dual Preview/Predictions/Results***

[Judoka]

The #2 Hawkeyes (3-0) are headed to Hilton on Sunday to take on the #6 Cyclones (5-0) in the 78th dual between the two teams. Iowa leads the series 58-16-3 and has won 9 straight since a 20-15 ISU win in 2005.

Could ISU Win: Well, technically anything is possible. The only matches I'm totally writing off are 133 and HWT. This isn't like the past few years where Iowa just totally outclassed us everywhere. I don't expect the meet score to reflect the improvements the team has made, but I do expect the individual match scores to make that evident. But honestly I'll be happy as long as we win 165 and 197, pick up one upset outside of that, and keep everything else respectable.

To follow:
When: Sunday, Dec 1st @ 2PM
Live TV: Cyclones.TV
Live Blog: Here
Twitter: @CyclonesWR

Jackson's Press conference for the dual

Projected lineups:

-	ISU Wrestler	Record	Ranking		Iowa Wrestler	Record	Ranking
125	Earl Hall FR	7-1	NR/NR/NR	vs	Cory Clark FR	7-0	4/6/5
133	Dakota Bauer	1-2	NR/NR/NR	vs	Tony Ramos SR	7-0	1/1/1
or	RJ Hallman	6-6	NR/NR/NR	-	-	-	-
141	Gabe Moreno FR	5-4	NR/NR/NR	vs	Josh Dziewa JR	8-0	14/19/19
149	Luke Goettl JR	4-3	NR/NR/NR	vs	Mike Kelly JR	8-0	NR/23/NR
157	John Nicholson SR	6-1	NR/NR/NR	vs	Derek St. John SR	8-0	1/1/1
165	Mike Moreno JR	9-0	3/3/3	vs	Nick Moore JR	2-0	8/11/8
174	Tanner Weatherman SO	7-2	8/9/10	vs	Mike Evans JR	8-0	6/6/6
or	Lelund Weatherspoon FR	10-1	NR/NR/NR	-	-	-	-
184	Boaz Beard	0-0	7/8/NR	vs	Ethen Lofthouse SR	7-0	2/2/1
	Lelund Weatherspoon FR	10-1	NR/NR/NR	-	-	-	-
or	Tanner Weatherman SO	7-2	8/9/10	-	-	-	-
197	Kyven Gadson JR	7-0	3/3/3	vs	Kris Klapprodt SO	5-1	NR/NR/NR
-	-	-	-	or	Nathan Burak SO	0-0	9/10/NR
HWT	Quean Smith FR	2-4	NR/NR/NR	vs	Terrance Jean-Jacques FR	8-2	NR/NR/NR
or	Ben Perna	1-2	NR/NR/NR	or	Bobby Telford JR	5-0	4/3/NR
or	A Lucky Fan	0-0	#1 in our Hearts	-	-	-	-

*Rankings are Intermat/D1Wrestling/AWN

Weight by weight breakdown:
125: Clark is going to be pretty special for Iowa. He beat the national champion last season while redshirting and beat Hall 4-2, 4-2 in Freestyle last summer. Hall seems to be a pinner and with his funk he'll always have a chance to pin anybody. But baring a pin I think Clark gets a major.
Iowa State 0 - 4 Iowa

133: Commence Phase 1 of operation "Don't get pinned"
Iowa State 0 - 10 Iowa

141: This is a match where I look to see little Moreno work his own offense and create action - Iowa is going to dominate those first two matches so Moreno needs to slow down their momentum here and prevent things from getting out of hand. I don't see an upset here but I think Moreno can keep it to a decision. As long as Moreno keeps his head in the game and works his own offense I don't see any reason he can't keep this to within 3-4 points or better. This is a good match to gauge the progress of the ISU program as a whole.
Iowa State 0 - 13 Iowa

149: At the start of the season I would have favored Goettl over Kelly. But Goettl hasn't been wrestling well so far this season. If he wrestles like he did that last period against Old Dominion Luke could pick up a win here. So I'll make this an "upset alert" but think Kelly will get a decision. Like 141, this is a good match to gauge the progress of the program as a whole.
Iowa State 0 - 16 Iowa

157: Nicholson beat St. John their senior year of high school but I don't expect that to happen again. Nicholson has been pretty decent this season and I haven't given up hope on him breaking in to the rankings. But St. John is a beast and will be out for revenge. I'm guessing St John wins by major.
Iowa State 0 - 20 Iowa

165: This should be the best match of the night. Last year Moreno and Moore split, with Moore winning 3-2 at the dual and Moreno winning 5-3 at NCAAs. I look to see Moreno pick up a tight win in a low scoring match. Probably 3-2 or 4-3. Iowa not having wrestled anybody yet should help us here - this is essentially the first match of the year for Moore so he might have some rust to shake off.
Iowa State 3 - 20 Iowa

174: Evans beat Weatherman 1-10 at the dual last season, so I'm not sure if we'll see Weatherspoon here to see if that is a better matchup. Regardless though, Tanner has come a long way since last December. And just like at 165 Iowa's schedule to this point hasn't given Evans anything to get warmed up for this level of competition.
Iowa State 3 - 23 Iowa

184: Beard lost to Lofthouse last season 3-8 in the dual and 2-8 at NCAAs. Beard is a solid wrestler but has never been able to turn the corner and beat elite guys. And he's coming off an injury so will be rusty in his first match back. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see Weatherspoon or Weatherman take the mat for us here. Either way I expect an Iowa win by decision.
Iowa State 3 - 26 Iowa

197: Burak hasn't wrestled yet this year and I'm not sure if we'll see him or not on Sunday. Gadson beat him 5-4 last season and I'd look to see something similar this time around. Gadson has really tightened up since his father passed away and I don't see him getting many majors or pins this year. Just lots of tough fought decisions. If Iowa sends out their backup I expect Gadson to win more comfortably and I'd like to see him pick up a major.
Iowa State 6 - 26 Iowa

HWT: Commence Phase 2 of operation "Don't get pinned"

Final Score prediction: Iowa State 6 - 32 Iowa


Key Matches:
141/149: Can little Moreno and Goettl slow down Iowa's momentum after what will likely be a fast start for the Hawks? Can one of them pick up an upset win?
165: Can Moreno win the rubber match against Moore?

Last year's result: Iowa State 3 - 32 Iowa
125 - #1 Matt McDonough (IA) major dec. #19 Ryak Finch (ISU), 13-2
133 - #3 Tony Ramos (IA) major dec. John Meeks (ISU), 19-7
141 - #13 Mark Ballweg (IA) dec. #18 Luke Goettl (ISU), 4-1
149 - Michael Kelly (IA) major dec. Luke Swalla (ISU), 16-6
157 - #1 Derek St. John (IA) major dec. Logan Molina (ISU), 16-5
165 - Nick Moore (IA) dec. Mike Moreno (ISU), 3-2
174 - #7 Mike Evans (IA) major dec. Tanner Weatherman (ISU), 10-1
184 - #8 Ethen Lofthouse (IA) dec. #16 Boaz Beard (ISU), 10-3
197 - #15 Kyven Gadson (ISU) dec. Nathan Burak (IA), 5-4
285 - #5 Bobby Telford (IA) dec. #15 Matt Gibson (ISU), 3-2

 

[crawfy54]

Good stuff. I'll be there sunday.

 

[cloneswereall]

HWT is just a dumpster fire this year and I hate it. We always had light HWTs, but they were AAs as well. I miss Zabriskie.

 

[enisthemenace]

As usual, very solid write up. I see the same two wins, but think Gadson could pick up a BP if he wrestles agressive.

As you mention, our other chances are at 41 and 49, with 49 being the better of the two. However, I expect to be disappointed at 49 (I have been all year). 25 could be a good one, but it could be a disaster too. I think Earl wins or gives up big BPs (i.e. 5 or 6).

I almost feel sorry for Bauer (who I expect to get the nod) and Nicholson (St John is a freak).

If the goal of this is to keep the dual respectable, we have to put Perna out there at HWT.

Be interesting to see what we do at 74 and 84. Being honest, if Boaz can't go, I would like to see Spoon at 74 and Weatherman at 84.

 

[isufbcurt]

If the goal of this is to keep the dual respectable, we have to put Perna out there at HWT.

you think 6 - 32 is respectable? I think it is pathetic and unacceptable.

 

[cloneswereall]

you think 6 - 32 is respectable? I think it is pathetic and unacceptable.

Do you have any idea about how meaningless dual scores are?

 

[isufbcurt]

Do you have any idea about how meaningless dual scores are?

Only winning 2 matches is sad.

 

[cloneswereall]

Only winning 2 matches is sad.

Tourney placement > dual wins

Unless you care about the faux National Championship which no wrestling team cares about.

 

[enisthemenace]

you think 6 - 32 is respectable? I think it is pathetic and unacceptable.

How about 23-14?

 

[isufbcurt]

Tourney placement > dual wins

Unless you care about the faux National Championship which no wrestling team cares about.

I care about winning. And in order for the individual guys to have good tourney placement they need to have a good win/loss record.

 

[isufbcurt]

How about 23-14?

at least that is more than 2 individual wins

 

[enisthemenace]

at least that is more than 2 individual wins

I do see the potential for 2 other wins, and the potential for some BP. I wouldn't bet on it though.

cloneswereall has a point though (big one). We are a MUCH better tournament team than a dual team.

 

[cloneswereall]

I care about winning. And in order for the individual guys to have good tourney placement they need to have a good win/loss record.

Well, duh. But winning a dual meet means nothing.

 

[howellc33]

Well, duh. But winning a dual meet means nothing.

It's not going to happen, but winning this dual would mean a lot from a rivalry standpoint.

 

[howellc33]

you think 6 - 32 is respectable? I think it is pathetic and unacceptable.

I think everyone would agree with this, but were you expecting anything closer? It could be even worse as those six points aren't for sure.

 

[Judoka]

I do see the potential for 2 other wins, and the potential for some BP. I wouldn't bet on it though.

cloneswereall has a point though (big one). We are a MUCH better tournament team than a dual team.

We're right on the cusp of being a very solid dual team, but this year we aren't quite there. We spot teams six points at HWT and we need 2-3 of our lightweights to take the step from "decent" to "good". Next season we're going to be there, especially if we bring in a good JuCo Heavy. But right now we're pretty much leaning on the four guys from 165-197 and the rest of the team is still figuring stuff out. Next season I think 165-197 is still where we score most of our tournament points but the lightweights should be much better for duals. We are still a huge step up dualwise from last season though. Our lineup from last season would probably be 1-4 or 2-3 right now rather than 5-0.

 

[Judoka]

at least that is more than 2 individual wins

40% of the matches in this dual will be between two wrestlers that are both in the top 10 (assuming Beard and Burak wrestle). We are light years ahead of where we were a few years ago. Matchups play very heavily into how duals play out. And it goes both ways - they have the #5 ranked guy at 165 and the #9 ranked guy at 197 who will be underdogs but normally would be scoring them big points. We have the #8 ranked guy at 174 and the #7 ranked guy at 184 who will be in the same situation. The meet score won't reflect it, but this should be a pretty good dual.

 

[ISU22CY]

I'm one of those that are split on the opinion of duals. In one way I hate them, especially after last year having not so stellar of season but peaking at the right time just goes to show they dont really mean all that much, and in the other way I love them when we win because it helps build up the TEAM. Here is the simplest way to describe (and i'll keep saying it until the end of time on here) what I want out of this team:
FIGHT
FIGHT
FIGHT
FIGHT
FIGHT

No more hang our heads throwing a cry fest, instead going out there throwing yourself to the wolves and making them hurt, might not mean beating them everytime in the end, but showing you aren't going to step aside and just let me take what they want. At the end (WHEN IT REALLY DOES MATTER) start peaking and seeing the goal, whether that is AA for some guys or hopefully standing on top of that podium, along with putting us back in the top 5 consistently. Because with time I can see us, and am hoping to see us, back at competing with the current top dogs for a chance at an NC.

And that's all I have for now, and dont forget GO CYCLONES! Cant wait for the dual, i'll be sitting there like a kid on Christmas morning.

 

[Judoka]

Totally agree - especially at 141 and 149. At those weights Iowa does not have a dominant wrestler and though they are underdogs little Moreno and Goettl have to create their own action and not let the Iowa wrestlers impose their will. Somewhat the same at 174 and 184, except the wrestlers involved for both schools are at a higher level at those weights.

 

[ISU22CY]

Judoka are you going to be at the dual and be giving updates? Just curious because I know a few of my buddies arent making it down there and were wondering where to get some updates besides the blog. also I'm getting a chuckle out of how much they cant stand the fact they have to pay a whole 10 dollars to view the meet.